Stress points
January 28-February 3, 2026
Nigeria faced converging institutional pressures in the week of January 28-February 3, 2026, as lawmakers missed deadlines on electoral reform critical for 2027 polls, ISWAP deployed armed drones for the first time (killing 25 people in Borno State), and Rivers State’s impeachment crisis landed in court. Economic news offered contrast: NNPC unveiled a $60 billion gas investment plan, PayPal returned after two decades through a Paga partnership, and the stock market hit record highs—even as fuel prices jumped twice and the national grid collapsed again.
Table of contents
Politics and governance
Electoral reform faces a February deadline
What’s in the Electoral Act bill
Rivers State impeachment attempt stalls in the courts
The godfather-protégé rift behind the Rivers crisis
Economy and business
NNPC’s $60 billion gas masterplan signals energy transition
Petrol prices jump twice as stock market hits record highs
BUA Foods and Wema Bank post triple-digit profit growth
Security and defence
ISWAP’s drone attacks mark a tactical escalation
Banditry claims more lives in Northwest and Plateau
Military strikes back: ISWAP commander and bandit leaders killed
Technology, infrastructure, and innovation
PayPal-Paga partnership opens global payment channels
CBN elevates Moniepoint, OPay and Kuda to national licenses
Power grid collapses continue while infrastructure investments grow
International relations
Turkey visit yields nine agreements and a $5 billion trade target
ECOWAS lifts Guinea sanctions as terrorism dominates regional agenda
Society and culture
Healthcare advances amid disease outbreaks
NELFUND extends student loan deadline to February 27
The week ahead
Politics and governance
Electoral reform faces a February deadline
The week’s most consequential political development was the Senate’s continued delay on the Electoral Act 2022 (Repeal and Re-enactment) Bill. INEC must legally issue its Notice of Election by February 24, 2026—exactly 360 days before the scheduled February 20, 2027 presidential election—creating intense pressure on lawmakers.
The Senate began formal consideration on January 29-30, with Senate President Godswill Akpabio emphasizing thoroughness: “This is a very important bill, especially as it is election time.” On January 30, the chamber formed a 7-member ad hoc committee chaired by Senator Niyi Adegbomore to harmonize positions within 48 hours. Despite this compressed timeline, the bill remained inconclusive by February 3 after four hours of closed-door deliberations. The House of Representatives had passed its version on December 23, 2025, but adjourned for two weeks to conduct budget defense sessions.
What’s in the Electoral Act bill
Key provisions in the bill include mandatory electronic transmission of results to INEC’s portal, downloadable digital voter cards, and substantially increased campaign spending limits—presidential election expenses would jump from N5 billion to N10 billion. Civil society groups warned that further delays would force the 2027 elections under the flawed 2022 framework.
Rivers State impeachment attempt stalls in the courts
The week’s most dramatic state-level conflict saw the attempted impeachment of Governor Siminalayi Fubara blocked by judicial intervention. On January 30, Rivers State Chief Judge Justice Simeon Amadi declined to constitute a 7-member investigative panel, citing subsisting interim court injunctions from two suits filed by Governor Fubara and Deputy Governor Ngozi Odu.
The godfather-protégé rift behind the Rivers crisis
The constitutional standoff reflects the ongoing power struggle between Fubara and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, his predecessor and erstwhile political patron. The South-South Professional Women Association alleged that pro-Wike lawmakers demanded N500 billion for “constituency projects” before initiating impeachment proceedings. Governor Fubara appeared publicly at the NPA Port Harcourt International Polo Tournament on February 1, declaring: “I’m here. I’m still the governor of Rivers State.”
President Tinubu reportedly intervened before departing for Turkey, telling Fubara that “Wike remains the undisputed political leader of Rivers State” while ordering Wike to halt impeachment plots. By February 3, ThisDay reported another presidential peace-brokering effort as tensions continued.
Economy and business
NNPC’s $60 billion gas masterplan signals energy transition
The most significant economic announcement came on January 30 when NNPC unveiled the Nigerian Gas Master Plan 2026 at NNPC Towers in Abuja. The plan targets:
$60+ billion in new investments across the oil and gas value chain by 2030
Production of 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030
Monetization of Nigeria’s 210 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves
NNPC Board Chairman Engr. Ahmadu Musa Kida called it “a landmark moment in the evolution of Nigeria’s energy future.” The plan aligns with the Federal Government’s “Decade of Gas Initiative” and builds on the 2008 masterplan.
Petrol prices jump twice as stock market hits record highs
On the consumer side, NNPC raised petrol prices twice during the week—to N835/litre in Lagos on January 28, then to N892/litre by January 30—following Dangote Refinery’s price increase to N799/litre ex-gantry. The Nigerian stock market closed January with the All-Share Index at 165,370 points, up 6.27% year-to-date, while market capitalization reached N106.15 trillion.
BUA Foods and Wema Bank post triple-digit profit growth
Corporate earnings were strong: BUA Foods reported 91% profit growth to N507.7 billion, becoming Nigeria’s most valuable listed company at approximately N14.38 trillion market cap. Wema Bank’s profit before tax jumped 117% to N222.1 billion. The FGN bond auction was 71% oversubscribed, with the government raising N1.54 trillion against a N900 billion offer.
Security and defence
ISWAP’s drone attacks mark a tactical escalation
The deadliest security incident occurred on January 29 when ISWAP launched a coordinated pre-dawn assault on the Nigerian Army’s Sabon Gari military base in Damboa Local Government Area, Borno State. The attack employed multiple armed drones—a significant tactical escalation—and killed at least 25 people, including 9 soldiers, 2 Civilian Joint Task Force members, and 14+ civilian laborers working on bridge reconstruction.
On the same day, ISWAP ambushed a military foot patrol near Damasak, killing the base commander (an Army Major) and leaving 22 soldiers initially unaccounted for.
Banditry claims more lives in Northwest and Plateau
A day earlier, on January 28, suspected bandits ambushed a police patrol in Katsina State, killing 3 officers. By February 3, bandits attacked Zurak community in Plateau State, killing 5 civilians and 1 soldier.
Military strikes back: ISWAP commander and bandit leaders killed
Military counter-operations claimed significant successes: troops eliminated senior ISWAP commander “Julaibib” on January 30, neutralized 12 insurgents at Bula Dalo, and killed notorious bandit leader Kachalla Dan Gudale Shangel in Niger State. The week’s security toll was severe—at least 16+ security personnel killed and 19+ civilians killed, against approximately 25+ terrorists and bandits neutralized.
Technology, infrastructure, and innovation
PayPal-Paga partnership opens global payment channels
The week’s most consequential fintech development was the January 27 launch of the PayPal-Paga partnership, enabling Nigerians to receive international payments for the first time since PayPal excluded them in 2004 over fraud concerns. PayPal committed $100 million to Nigerian fintech partnerships through its “PayPal World Initiative.”
Paga, with 21 million users and N17 trillion in 2025 transaction volume, now allows Nigerians to link PayPal accounts and receive payments from 200+ countries, withdrawing in naira or retaining dollar balances. Paga founder Tayo Oviosu called it “a full-circle moment,” noting that PayPal inspired his company’s creation.
CBN elevates Moniepoint, OPay and Kuda to national licenses
The Central Bank of Nigeria also upgraded licenses for Moniepoint, OPay, and Kuda Bank to national status, requiring them to maintain N5 billion minimum capital and establish physical branches. A CBN report released February 2 showed Nigerian fintechs processed 11 billion transactions, with 87.5% using AI primarily for fraud detection.
Power grid collapses continue while infrastructure investments grow
Nigeria experienced two national grid collapses in January 2026—on January 23 and January 27. The January 27 collapse, originating from a voltage disturbance at Gombe Transmission Substation, dropped generation from 3,825 MW to zero. The Nigerian Independent System Operator issued a clarifying statement on January 28 terming it a “partial system collapse.”
The broader infrastructure picture showed notable progress: 28 new mini-grids are scheduled for completion in Q1 2026 under the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), with an additional 39 systems in the project pipeline. In a major digital move, the Federal Government took a 49% stake in a World Bank-backed $2 billion project to deploy 90,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable nationwide. Meanwhile, while the construction market continues to expand toward a N25.72 trillion total valuation, real-term growth is projected at a more moderate 5.3% for 2025.
International relations
Turkey visit yields nine agreements and a $5 billion trade target
President Tinubu’s state visit to Turkey (January 26-31) produced nine bilateral agreements signed on January 27 and a commitment to increase bilateral trade from $2 billion to $5 billion. The most significant was the establishment of a Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) and a Military Cooperation Protocol covering intelligence sharing and specialized training.
Turkish President Erdoğan pledged support for Nigeria’s counter-terrorism efforts: “We stand by the friendly people of Nigeria in their fight against terrorism.” The Nigerian delegation included the Ministers of Defense, Foreign Affairs, Finance, and the National Security Adviser. Turkey is Nigeria’s largest trading partner in sub-Saharan Africa, with over 50 Turkish companies operating in Nigeria.
ECOWAS lifts Guinea sanctions as terrorism dominates regional agenda
Separately, ECOWAS lifted all sanctions on Guinea on January 28 following the December 2025 presidential election. At a high-level security conference in Accra (January 29-30), West African leaders agreed that the region has become the “global epicenter of terrorism” with at least 8 terror attacks daily claiming an average of 44 lives.
Society and culture
Healthcare advances amid disease outbreaks
The week saw continued management of a Lassa fever outbreak that had claimed 28 deaths from 93 laboratory-confirmed infections within the first three weeks of January 2026. Meanwhile, a landmark $5 billion US-Nigeria health agreement signed on January 10 (with nearly $2.1 billion from the US and $2.9 billion domestic contribution) continued to dominate healthcare discussions. Health Minister Prof. Muhammad Ali Pate reported encouraging metrics: 17% reduction in maternal deaths and 12% decline in newborn deaths across high-burden areas.
NELFUND extends student loan deadline to February 27
The education sector saw NELFUND extend its student loan application deadline from January 31 to February 27, 2026, while JAMB registration opened January 26 for the 2026 academic year. Some 18 million Nigerian children remain out of school despite a N3.52 trillion education budget representing 6.1% of total government spending—below UNESCO’s 15-20% recommendation.
The week ahead
February 4-13: West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) statutory meetings in Monrovia, Liberia, with CBN Governor Cardoso participating in discussions on the proposed ECO currency and regional convergence criteria
February 9: Senate Appropriations Committee holds public hearing on ₦58.47 trillion 2026 budget
February 10: Final day for voter card collection at FCT Area Council offices; cross-examination resumes for ex-Acting Accountant-General Chukwunyere Nwabuoku (₦868.4m fraud case) and former CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele (naira redesign trial) at Federal High Court Maitama
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