Nigeria’s week of reckoning
November 11-18, 2025
The main opposition party tears itself apart, schoolgirls are kidnapped in the northwest, and foreign reserves hit an eight-year high. Meanwhile, President Tinubu navigates diplomatic tensions while consolidating power.
The past seven days have crystallised Nigeria’s paradoxes with unusual clarity. As the country’s foreign reserves surged to $46.7 billion—the highest since 2018—and inflation tumbled to 16.05%, its main opposition party imploded in spectacular fashion, armed bandits abducted 25 schoolgirls from their dormitory, and Islamic State-aligned militants executed a brigadier general. For Africa’s most populous nation, the week of November 11-18, 2025 offered both vindication of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms and a stark reminder that prosperity means little when citizens cannot sleep safely in their beds. The juxtaposition was, as ever in Nigeria, both remarkable and depressingly familiar.
Politics & Governance
Opposition eats itself as ruling party gorges on defectors
The Peoples Democratic Party, which governed Nigeria for 16 years until 2015 and has served as the country’s primary opposition force since, effectively ceased to exist as a unified entity this week. What remains are two hostile factions, each claiming legitimacy, each expelling the other’s leaders, and both fighting—quite literally—for control of the party headquarters in Abuja.
The drama reached its crescendo on November 15-16 at a chaotic national convention in Ibadan, where acting chairman Umar Damagum’s faction expelled 11 prominent members, including Nyesom Wike, the serving Federal Capital Territory minister who has become the party’s Schrödinger’s cat: simultaneously a PDP member and part of the APC-led government. The convention elected Kabiru Tanimu Turaki, a former Jigawa governor, as the new national chairman. Wike’s faction, unsurprisingly, declined to recognise this development and held rival meetings at the party secretariat.
By November 18, tensions erupted into violence when rival groups clashed at the PDP headquarters. Police fired teargas, journalists were injured, and the spectacle of Nigeria’s oldest political party tearing itself apart played out on national television. In a move that combined desperation with poor judgment, Turaki appealed to Donald Trump and the international community to “save democracy in Nigeria”—a statement the ruling All Progressives Congress gleefully described as “reckless and unpatriotic.”
The PDP’s crisis is less about ideology than arithmetic. With the 2027 elections approaching, the mathematics of political survival have turned brutal. This week saw the most dramatic evidence: Taraba State witnessed a complete political realignment, with all 16 state assembly members, all 16 local government chairmen, the state PDP chairman, and the entire executive council defecting to the APC. Governor Agbu Kefas was scheduled to formally join them on November 19 (later postponed due to the Kebbi kidnapping). When an entire state’s political structure switches allegiance, one is observing not defection but migration.
The National Assembly, meanwhile, busied itself with more prosaic matters. On November 13, both chambers approved President Tinubu’s request for N1.15 trillion in domestic borrowing and $2.35 billion in external loans, primarily to refinance Eurobonds maturing November 21. The Senate also advanced reforms to raise NEXIM Bank’s capital base from N50 billion to as much as N1 trillion—the managing director having noted that $33 million is “grossly inadequate” to support Nigeria’s export ambitions under the African Continental Free Trade Area. Quite so.
In a more encouraging sign, 44 lawmakers formally petitioned President Tinubu to release Nnamdi Kanu, the detained leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, and convene an “all-inclusive political roundtable.” The Southeast’s persistent low-level insurgency has proven immune to purely military solutions; perhaps political ones might fare better.
Economy & Business
Market panic, swift recovery, and a central bank vindicated
November 11 delivered the Nigerian stock market’s worst single-day performance in 15 years. The All-Share Index plummeted 5.01%, erasing N4.61 trillion in market capitalisation as panicked investors fled on fears of a proposed 25-30% capital gains tax increase. The exodus followed Trump’s threats against Nigeria, mixed third-quarter earnings, and general year-end portfolio rebalancing. By day’s end, equity capitalisation had collapsed from N94.53 trillion to N89.88 trillion.
Then Finance Minister Wale Edun spoke. On November 12, his reassurances regarding capital gains tax policy immediately restored confidence. The market recovered N2.5 trillion that day, another N1 trillion on November 13, and by November 14 had clawed back nearly all losses. The episode demonstrated both the market’s skittishness and the government’s growing competence at crisis management—a combination that would have seemed implausible 18 months ago.
The week’s economic data vindicated the Central Bank’s hawkish stance. October inflation hit 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September—the seventh consecutive monthly decline and the lowest rate since March 2022. Food inflation fell to 13.12% from 16.87%. The numbers reflect naira stability, improved FX liquidity, and seasonal harvest effects, but also suggest the CBN’s orthodox monetary policy is finally gaining traction. Markets now expect a 100-basis-point rate cut when the Monetary Policy Committee meets November 24-25.
Foreign reserves reaching $46.7 billion—providing 10.3 months of import cover—prompted S&P Global Ratings to revise Nigeria’s sovereign outlook from “stable” to “positive” on November 14. The confluence of declining inflation, rising reserves, and investor confidence returning suggests Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms, however painful, are producing results. Q2 GDP growth of 4.23% marked the strongest quarterly expansion in a decade outside the post-COVID rebound.
The telecoms sector continued its remarkable trajectory, with MTN Nigeria posting a N750.2 billion profit in the first nine months of 2025 (swinging from a N514.9 billion loss the previous year). Airtel’s profits surged 375% to $376 million. The two giants, controlling 86% of the market, announced infrastructure-sharing arrangements that should reduce costs while expanding rural connectivity. Data consumption hit 1.15 million terabytes in August—the highest monthly figure recorded—as Nigeria’s 173.5 million active mobile lines increasingly shift from voice to data services.
The Dangote Refinery announced plans to expand capacity from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day within three years, which would make it the world’s largest single-train refinery. Having already reduced petrol prices from N877 to N828 per litre, the facility now produces more than Nigeria’s daily requirements for both petrol and diesel. A $50 billion commitment from a global consortium to build Africa’s second-largest refinery (500,000 bpd) in the Niger Delta suggests Nigeria may finally solve its decades-long refining paradox: being Africa’s largest oil producer while importing most refined products.
The week’s shadow fell on banking, where the sector’s N49.152 trillion holdings in government securities rose 16.5% while loans to the private sector grew just 7.27%. When banks prefer sovereign debt to private lending, credit starvation threatens the very growth the macroeconomic stability is meant to enable.
Security & Defense
Another set of schoolgirls, another tragedy
At 4:00 AM on November 17, heavily armed bandits attacked the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga, Kebbi State. They killed the vice principal and a staff member before abducting 25 female students. One girl escaped that evening; 24 remained in captivity at week’s end. For Nigerians, the scene was grimly familiar—a replay of Chibok (2014), Dapchi (2018), Kankara (2020), and countless smaller abductions. Since 2014, at least 1,500 students have been kidnapped, most from the northwest where banditry has metastasised from cattle rustling into a lucrative kidnapping industry.
The Kebbi attack formed part of a week that saw 64 people kidnapped in Zamfara State (six killed), four killed and 12 abducted in Kaduna, and continued violence across the northwest. Security analysts note that bandits increasingly target schools for “strategic kidnapping”—attacks that guarantee national attention and higher ransoms than marketplace or roadside abductions. The strategy, depressingly, works.
In the northeast, the insurgency delivered its most significant tactical victory in years. On November 15, Islamic State West Africa Province fighters ambushed and captured Brigadier General M. Uba, commander of 25 Brigade, during operations along the Damboa-Biu axis in Borno State. ISWAP executed him and released propaganda photos on November 17. The killing of Nigeria’s highest-ranking officer since 2021 exposed vulnerabilities in operational communications and demonstrated ISWAP’s increasing sophistication—the group now deploys drones, night-vision equipment, and rocket-propelled grenades.
Borno Governor Babagana Zulum met with the Chief of Air Staff on November 18 to plan coordinated operations against key insurgent strongholds in the Tumbus Islands of Lake Chad, Mandara Hills, and Sambisa Game Reserve. Zulum noted that no comprehensive military operation has ever targeted the Tumbus Islands, which serve as ISWAP’s logistics hub and generate an estimated $191 million annually from taxing fishermen. The week also saw intra-jihadist fighting, with Boko Haram killing approximately 200 ISWAP fighters in battles for control of Lake Chad territories and smuggling routes.
Nigeria’s armed forces remain deployed across 35 of 36 states—a dispersion that stretches capabilities while suggesting the security apparatus serves less to defeat threats than to manage them. The National Human Rights Commission reported 2,266 people killed by bandits or insurgents in the first half of 2025 alone, exceeding all of 2024. When school kidnappings become routine and brigadier generals are executed on camera, one questions whether “security operations” constitute operations at all.
Society & Culture
Strikes threatened, footballers disappointed, filmmakers ascendant
The Academic Staff Union of Universities escalated rhetoric against the federal government this week, with multiple zonal coordinators rejecting a proposed 35% salary increase as “wretched” and “unscientific.” The union, which suspended a warning strike in October, threatened to resume action if negotiations stall. ASUU’s Lagos coordinator noted that while state revenues surged 62% between 2022 and 2024 (from N3.92 trillion to N5.81 trillion), education funding has sunk below 1% of GDP—far beneath Egypt’s 2% or South Africa’s 6%, let alone the 10% Maputo Declaration commitment.
The dispute reflects broader tensions over brain drain, with academics noting they remain “poorly compensated compared to their counterparts in other countries.” Universities cannot retain talent when neighbouring Ghana or distant Canada offers triple the salary. The threat of renewed strikes hangs over a sector already battered by years of industrial action.
Nigerian football delivered heartbreak on November 16, when the Super Eagles lost to DR Congo 4-3 on penalties in the CAF World Cup playoff final in Rabat. The defeat means Nigeria will miss a second consecutive World Cup—a significant blow for a nation that has historically been one of Africa’s strongest footballing powers. The team had defeated Gabon 4-1 in the semifinals, with Victor Osimhen scoring twice in extra time, before falling in the final’s penalty shootout. For a country where football serves as a rare source of national unity, the elimination stung particularly hard.
Nigerian cinema, by contrast, soared. The 14th Africa International Film Festival concluded its November 2-8 run in Lagos, marking a transformation from screening event to commercial marketplace. The newly launched AFRIFF Film & Content Market attracted MTN, major studios, and international buyers, facilitating licensing deals and co-productions. Films including “3 Cold Dishes” (executive produced by Burna Boy) and Omotola Jalade-Ekeinde’s directorial debut “Mother’s Love” showcased Nollywood’s maturation. The sector contributed N4.2 billion to GDP in 2024, with Nigerian films accounting for 56% of box office revenue in the first half—suggesting that while the Super Eagles stumbled, cultural exports continue their global ascent.
Afrobeats maintains its position as Nigeria’s most effective soft power tool, generating billions in economic value while reshaping global perceptions. The creative industries contributed approximately $1.4 billion to GDP in 2023, with artists like Burna Boy, Wizkid, and Rema dominating international charts. When Nigerian footballers disappoint, Nigerian musicians compensate.
Healthcare authorities confirmed a dengue fever outbreak in Sokoto State with eight laboratory-verified cases, while Lassa fever continues its endemic presence—290 confirmed cases and 53 deaths between January 6-26, with a case fatality rate of 18.3%. The persistent health challenges underscore how far Nigeria must travel to achieve healthcare security for its 237 million citizens.
International Relations
Trump’s threats recede as China’s embrace tightens
Donald Trump’s November 1 threats—designating Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for alleged Christian persecution and promising military intervention “guns-a-blazing”—cast a shadow over the week, though diplomatic channels produced what Nigerian officials described as “positive results.” Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar confirmed on November 17 that discussions had “moved on” from military threats. The crisis revealed Nigeria’s vulnerability to US pressure (USAID provided $876 million in 2024) while demonstrating the limits of such leverage when narratives clash with reality. Nigerian officials maintained that Muslims, not Christians, constitute the primary victims of violence—the Kebbi schoolgirls were all Muslim—and that characterising complex security challenges as religious persecution fundamentally misunderstands the situation.
If America’s stick looked less threatening this week, China’s carrots appeared more appetizing. Chinese Premier Li Qiang met Nigeria’s House Speaker on November 4, declaring that “China-Nigeria relations have entered the fast lane.” Bilateral trade reached $21.9 billion in 2024, with Chinese commitments spanning infrastructure, clean energy, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and zero-tariff treatment for Nigerian exports. When Trump threatened sanctions and China offered zero tariffs, Nigeria’s diplomatic calculus simplified considerably.
The United Kingdom maintained its role as dependable partner, with Foreign Minister Tuggar meeting British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper on November 11 to discuss trade, security, education, and climate cooperation. The UK announced Phase Two of its Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions fund, supporting Nigeria’s net-zero 2060 target. British pragmatism—£500 million in annual development assistance combined with expanding trade ties—offers a model that neither lectures nor threatens.
The week’s most significant diplomatic initiative came on November 18, when Nigeria, UNDP, and ECOWAS launched the Regional Partnership for Democracy. Tuggar described it as “President Tinubu’s contribution to the strengthening of democracy in Africa,” positioning Nigeria as champion of governance reform across a region that has witnessed military coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020. The RPD Secretariat, housed in Nigeria’s Foreign Ministry, will focus on electoral integrity, youth participation, and countering disinformation—addressing what ECOWAS officials warned amounts to an existential crisis. “If democracy falters in Nigeria,” one commissioner stated, “democracy will collapse everywhere else in the entire West African region.”
The African Union issued strong support for Nigeria during the Trump crisis, with AU Commission Chairman Mahmoud Ali Youssouf declaring at the United Nations on November 13: “There is no genocide in northern Nigeria.” The continental solidarity Nigeria received—combined with China’s diplomatic backing—suggests regional and emerging-power relationships increasingly matter as much as traditional Western partnerships.
Nigerian diaspora remittances surged 61% year-over-year, reaching $4.22 billion in the first ten months of 2024, on track to hit $26 billion for the full year. The flows exceed foreign direct investment and USAID combined, making the diaspora arguably Nigeria’s most valuable international asset. Initiatives to channel remittances into productive investment—rather than purely consumption—represent sensible attempts to leverage this resource more strategically.
The Week Ahead
November 24-25 brings the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where a 100-basis-point rate cut appears probable given October’s inflation decline to 16.05%. Markets will scrutinise whether the CBN deems conditions ripe for significant easing or maintains a cautious approach. The decision will signal whether Nigeria’s disinflation trajectory is sufficiently established to permit monetary accommodation.
President Tinubu departs November 18 for South Africa’s G20 Leaders’ Summit (November 22-23), followed by the 7th AU-EU Summit in Luanda (November 24-25). His presence at the G20, despite Nigeria not being a member state, reflects the country’s ambitions for greater voice in global economic governance. The AU-EU Summit’s focus on climate action, infrastructure, and digital transformation aligns with Nigeria’s strategic priorities, particularly regarding climate finance and technology transfer.
The National Festival of Arts and Culture convenes in Enugu State November 22-29, themed “Connected Culture.” While NAFEST typically generates limited international attention, it serves important domestic purposes in fostering cultural exchange and national cohesion—commodities in short supply.
The fate of the 24 Kebbi schoolgirls remains the week’s most pressing concern. Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Waidi Shaibu ordered “day and night” operations to secure their release. History suggests negotiations and ransom payments more likely than military rescue, but the government faces pressure to demonstrate capability beyond managing tragedies after they occur.
Opposition coalition talks continue, with the African Democratic Congress expressing willingness to work with PDP factions “if it will not be business as usual.” Whether Nigeria’s splintered opposition can coalesce into a credible alternative to the APC by 2027 remains doubtful, particularly as defections continue strengthening the ruling party’s already formidable position.
The coming days will reveal whether Nigeria’s economic stabilisation proves durable, whether its security apparatus can protect schoolchildren, and whether its diplomatic navigation between competing powers yields strategic advantage or merely postpones difficult choices. For a country perpetually described as having enormous potential, the gap between what could be and what is remains Nigeria’s defining characteristic—and this week offered both hope and despair in equal measure.
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