Lights Out, Reforms On
January 21-27, 2026
As inflation dropped to 15.15% and the naira strengthened, delivering tangible evidence that President Tinubu’s painful reforms are working, the country simultaneously grappled with a collapsing national power grid, over 170 church worshippers held hostage by bandits, and an opposition in freefall.
Table of contents
Politics and governance
The opposition’s vanishing act continues
National Assembly resumes with ambitious agenda
Economy and business
Inflation falls, but oil constraints loom
Banking recapitalization on track
Security and defence
Bandits, ransom demands, and an ambush
U.S. security cooperation deepens
Society and culture
Nollywood’s box-office revolution
Labour unrest paralyzes Abuja
Technology, infrastructure, and innovation
The grid collapses—again
Dangote keeps the lights on—and pumps running
Digital economy advances
International relations
Nigeria’s Davos debut and Turkey pivot
ECOWAS digital transformation dialogue
The week ahead
Politics and governance
The opposition’s vanishing act continues
Governor Abba Yusuf’s formal defection to the APC on January 26 marked the end of a months-long rift with his political godfather, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso responded with characteristic drama, declaring January 23 “World Betrayal Day” and warning that frequent defections erode public confidence in democracy. The episode mirrors a recurring pattern in Nigerian politics—the protégé-benefactor fallout that consumed Obasanjo and Atiku, Tinubu and Ambode, Wike and Fubara. But this defection carries strategic weight: Kano is Nigeria’s most populous state and the NNPP’s only stronghold. With its loss, the party’s national relevance evaporates.
The week also saw Agboola Ajayi, the PDP’s gubernatorial candidate in Ondo State’s 2024 election, rejoin the APC on January 27. Ondo’s APC chairman triumphantly described the state as now effectively “a one-party state.” The opposition’s collapse is staggering: the PDP has shrunk from 12 governors in 2023 to just four. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have both abandoned their parties. A Yiaga Africa survey released January 22 found only 45% of Nigerians trust the Independent National Electoral Commission—yet 77% still intend to vote in 2027, suggesting faith in democracy persists even as institutional confidence erodes.
National Assembly resumes with ambitious agenda
Parliament returned from recess on January 27 with a crowded legislative calendar. Priorities include clause-by-clause consideration of constitutional amendments (the Senate committee has received 69 bills including boundary adjustments and 278 local government creation requests), Electoral Act reforms, and a Special Seats Bill proposing 182 additional women-only legislative positions nationwide. The ₦58.47 trillion 2026 budget—benchmarked at $64.85 per barrel and 1.84 million bpd oil production—awaits ministerial defense before appropriation committees.
More ominously, military tribunals are set to try at least 16 officers detained since October 2025 for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government. Under Nigerian military law, attempted coup carries penalties ranging from life imprisonment to death—a stark reminder that beneath the democratic veneer, civilian rule remains fragile.
Economy and business
Inflation falls, but oil constraints loom
The economic data released this week reinforced cautious optimism. December’s 15.15% headline inflation rate—down sharply from 34.80% a year earlier—suggests the Central Bank’s restrictive monetary policy is working. Food inflation dropped to 10.84%, with month-on-month prices actually declining 0.36% as tomato, garri, and grain costs fell. The monetary policy rate remains at a punishing 27%, but disinflation creates space for eventual easing.
Currency markets reflected the improved sentiment. The naira traded at ₦1,410.59 per dollar on January 27, strengthening 3.08% over the past month. The parallel market rate of ₦1,475-1,485 represents a narrowing premium—a positive signal for exchange-rate unification. Foreign reserves stand at approximately $45.8 billion, with the CBN targeting $51 billion by year-end.
Yet the IEA’s January 25 assessment was sobering. Nigeria’s sustainable oil production capacity of 1.42 million bpd means the country has no buffer to capitalize on price spikes or geopolitical disruptions—unlike Saudi Arabia, which maintains 2.4 million bpd of spare capacity. The 2026 budget assumption of 1.84 million bpd looks increasingly fantastical. Decades of underinvestment, pipeline sabotage, and operational inefficiency have hollowed out Africa’s largest oil industry.
Banking recapitalization on track
The CBN’s March 31, 2026 recapitalization deadline looms, but the banking sector appears prepared. At least 20-22 banks have met requirements, with Access Bank (₦602.8 billion) and Zenith Bank (₦614 billion) exceeding the ₦500 billion threshold for international licenses. The Unity Bank-Providus merger is in final stages, promising to create a top-ten lender. The Nigerian Exchange’s All-Share Index stood at 165,518 points on January 26—up 58.51% year-on-year—though a 870-point single-day drop on January 23 signaled vulnerability to profit-taking.
Security and defence
Bandits, ransom demands, and an ambush
The security situation in Nigeria’s northwest remained dire. On January 21, bandits ambushed security forces in Zamfara State, killing five soldiers and one police officer—a reminder of the lethal risks facing troops operating in the region. The same day, military operations rescued 62 hostages from a bandit hideout in Zamfara, with two militants killed near the Kebbi-Sokoto border.
The week’s dominant security story, however, centered on the aftermath of the January 17-18 mass abduction from three churches in Kurmin Wali village, Kaduna State. Casualty figures remain contested—the Christian Association of Nigeria cites 172-177 worshippers kidnapped; Amnesty International says 166—but the bandits’ ransom demand is clear: ₦250 million (approximately $175,000) and 20 motorcycles, with captors claiming they lost 17 bikes to recent military operations. Security forces have reportedly identified the hostages’ location but fear airstrikes would kill human shields.
Additional incidents punctuated the week. On January 26, bandits attacked Chibauna community in Katsina State, killing two and abducting over 50 women. In Kaduna’s Kajuru local government, six residents were seized from their homes. A police inspector died in an ambush at Budo Masalasi border post in Oyo State—unusual violence in the normally calmer southwest. Yet there were also gains: on January 26, troops rescued 11 kidnap victims held since October along the Kaduna-Abuja expressway, using long-range CCTV surveillance to intercept their captors.
U.S. security cooperation deepens
The U.S.-Nigeria Working Group convened in Abuja on January 22—the first formal session since Nigeria’s designation as a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom violations. Led by National Security Advisor Nuhu Ribadu and U.S. Under Secretary Allison Hooker, discussions focused on reducing violence against vulnerable groups, particularly Christians. Nigeria outlined its reallocation of security resources toward the volatile North Central region.
The meeting institutionalizes a bilateral security relationship that intensified dramatically in December 2025, when U.S. forces conducted joint operations against the Lakurawa militant group in Sokoto State. AFRICOM’s deputy commander, Lieutenant General John Brennan, confirmed on January 26 that the U.S. is becoming “more aggressive” in targeting Islamic State-linked threats in Nigeria. The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act allocates $413 million for military operations in Nigeria and West Africa.
Society and culture
Nollywood’s box-office revolution
Funke Akindele’s “Behind the Scenes” crossed ₦2.4 billion in box-office receipts this week, earning congratulations from the Nigeria Film Corporation on January 26. The milestone makes it the highest-grossing Nollywood film ever across Africa, the UK, and Ireland—and the first to breach the ₦2 billion threshold on the continent. Its Boxing Day opening of ₦129.5 million set a single-day record. Akindele, who directed, wrote, and produced, is now West Africa’s most commercially successful filmmaker. The film’s theme—“black tax,” or the financial burden successful Nigerians face from extended families—resonated with audiences navigating the country’s economic squeeze.
Meanwhile, colleague Toyin Abraham’s directorial debut “Oversabi Aunty” crossed ₦1 billion on January 26, becoming the fourth-highest-grossing Nollywood film ever. The industry’s commercial maturation continues at pace.
Labour unrest paralyzes Abuja
Federal Capital Territory workers, backed by the Nigeria Labour Congress, picketed the National Industrial Court on January 26 as their indefinite strike—which began January 19—escalated. Placards demanded the removal of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, with slogans including “Abuja no be Rivers” (a reference to Wike’s controversial tenure as Rivers State governor). The Nigeria Union of Teachers directed all FCT primary and secondary school teachers to join the strike, disrupting education for thousands.
Grievances include five months of unpaid wage awards, outstanding promotion arrears, and non-remittance of pension contributions. NLC President Joe Ajaero declared “full support” on January 24, framing the dispute as resistance to “neoliberal attacks” and “administrative impunity.” Separately, the TUC and NLC issued a 14-day ultimatum on January 23 threatening nationwide health-sector action unless a 2021 salary review is implemented.
Technology, infrastructure, and innovation
The grid collapses—again
At approximately 1:00 PM on Friday, January 23, Nigeria’s national electricity grid collapsed for the first time in 2026. Generation plummeted from roughly 4,500 MW to zero as transmission lines tripped and generating units disconnected across the system. All eleven distribution companies recorded zero load allocation—a cascade failure affecting over 200 million people. The collapse was the latest in a series that saw at least 16 grid failures between 2024 and 2025.
The Rural Electrification Agency offered a partial response, announcing on January 21 that 28 new mini-grids would be commissioned in Q1 2026, with Nigeria potentially surpassing 1,000 mini-grids this year. But distributed generation cannot substitute for a functioning national grid. The 2026 budget allocates ₦1.1 trillion for the power sector, with emphasis shifting toward community-level electrification.
Dangote keeps the lights on—and pumps running
The Dangote Refinery continues operating at near-full capacity, producing 50 million litres of petrol daily and maintaining sufficient stock for over 20 days of national consumption. Managing Director David Bird declared that “Nigeria has gone from fuel scarcity to fuel abundance.” The refinery’s 24-hour loading operations, launched January 15, have proven critical to national fuel supply. Plans to list 10% of the $20 billion facility on the Nigerian Exchange remain on track for 2026.
Digital economy advances
Communications Minister Bosun Tijani on January 27 directed the Nigerian Communications Commission to implement instant penalties for telecoms operators experiencing network failures within 90 days.
Amazon’s Kuiper satellite internet service received a Nigerian license on January 26, positioning it to serve enterprise and underserved markets. PayPal’s return to Nigeria through a partnership with Paga—announced January 27—marks the payment giant’s first presence in the country in roughly two decades.
Infrastructure finance company InfraCredit announced plans on January 26 to triple its naira guarantees to approximately ₦1 trillion ($703 million) over four years, potentially unlocking significant infrastructure investment.
International relations
Nigeria’s Davos debut and Turkey pivot
Nigeria established its first-ever official National House at the World Economic Forum in Davos, running through January 23. Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar outlined foreign policy priorities—security, multilateralism, strategic autonomy—while Finance Minister Wale Edun pitched the reform agenda to investors. The pavilion focused on solid minerals, climate investment, digital trade, and the creative economy.
President Tinubu arrived in Ankara on January 27 for a state visit to Turkey, received by Education Minister Yusuf Tekin. Discussions will cover trade, defense cooperation, and infrastructure—part of Nigeria’s broader effort to diversify partnerships beyond traditional Western and Chinese relationships. The visit comes as Nigeria deepens ties with both Washington and Beijing: 2026 marks the 55th anniversary of China-Nigeria diplomatic relations, with Chinese officials emphasizing the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” elevated during Tinubu’s September 2024 state visit.
ECOWAS digital transformation dialogue
The Economic Community of West African States convened a three-day consultation on January 26 in Lagos focused on “ECOWAS Vision 2050” and digital transformation. Director of Cabinet Abdou Kolley described the region as standing “at a defining crossroads.” Nigeria continues its leadership role in the bloc—contributing troops to the ECOWAS Standby Force that responded to Benin’s November 2025 coup attempt and championing the AfCFTA Protocol on Digital Trade alongside Kenya and South Africa.
The week ahead
President Tinubu’s state visit to Türkiye concludes January 28 after signing nine bilateral agreements targeting $5 billion in trade, while back in Abuja Vice President Shettima launches a women and youth empowerment fund the same day.
The Debt Management Office settles an oversubscribed bond auction January 28, allotting ₦1.54 trillion against a ₦900 billion offer.
The National Assembly convenes throughout the week to defend the ₦58.18 trillion budget, consider Electoral Act amendments, and review constitutional alteration bills—with 69 pending plus 278 local government creation requests.
The courts take centre stage with former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello’s ₦110.4 billion money laundering trial resuming January 29-30 at Federal High Court Abuja, while former Kano Governor Abdullahi Ganduje appears February 3 for bribery case motions. Ex-Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke’s UK corruption trial continues in London throughout the week.
In entertainment, “Alive Till Dawn”—Nigeria’s first major zombie thriller—premieres in cinemas January 30, while Netflix launches Anikulapo Season 2 the same day.
Nigeria’s premier energy gathering, the Nigeria International Energy Summit, opens February 2-5 at Abuja’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu Conference Centre, drawing African heads of state including Gambia’s Adama Barrow and Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang. NNPC’s CEO headlines discussions on energy security before an expected 3,000 delegates.