In a week that compressed a year’s worth of political drama into seven days, Nigeria fought over the soul of its electoral system, watched its stock market hit all-time highs, and welcomed American soldiers onto its soil for the first time in years. Each development reflects a country simultaneously reforming its democracy, stabilising its economy, and rewriting its security doctrine — not always in ways its citizens would have chosen.

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Table of contents

Politics and governance

• The Electoral Act battle tears the National Assembly apart

• The House descends into chaos

• Tear gas at the gates

• INEC sets the 2027 clock—and triggers a Ramadan row

• El-Rufai detained, charged, and cornered from multiple angles

• Obi rebrands, APC swallows opposition states whole

Economy and business

• Inflation hits a sweet spot as food prices plunge

• Reserves surge, naira holds firm

• Stock market erupts to record highs on pension fund catalyst

• Oil, banking, and the revenue drive

Security and defence

• American boots on Nigerian ground mark a turning point

• A spreading violence problem

• Washington sanctions eight Nigerians

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

• Power grid wobbles as maintenance exposes structural fragility

• Port clearance goes digital

• Aviation incident raises Boeing questions

International relations

• Nigeria wins an African Central Bank seat and eyes the UN Security Council

• The UAE deal and a royal invitation

• ECOWAS’ enforcement gap laid bare

• Nigerians warned off foreign battlefields

Society and culture

• Ramadan begins — and immediately complicates everything

• Nollywood’s Valentine triumph

• The Super Eagles’ World Cup fate hangs in the balance

The week ahead

Politics and governance

The Electoral Act battle tears the National Assembly apart

The most consequential political story of the week was a bitter, multi-day confrontation over Clause 60(3) of the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, which governs whether electronic transmission of polling-unit results should be mandatory or discretionary. The fight spilled from the chamber floor into the streets, culminating in tear gas and a legislative walkout.

The Senate had finalised its position by mid-week, approving all 155 clauses of its version but inserting a “safety valve” allowing manual Form EC8A to take precedence if technology fails. Senate Leader Michael Opeyemi Bamidele defended the decision with infrastructure data: Nigeria’s broadband coverage stands at only 70%, internet penetration at 44.53%, and nationwide electricity delivery is limited to roughly 4,500 MW despite a nominal generation capacity of 12,000–13,500 MW. On February 17, the Senate also reduced the mandatory election notice period from 360 to 300 days, after realising the original timeline could force the February 2027 presidential vote into the middle of Ramadan.

The House descends into chaos

The House of Representatives descended into pandemonium that same day. Hon. Francis Waive (APC, Delta), chairman of the House Committee on Rules and Business, moved to rescind the House’s December 2025 passage of a bill mandating real-time electronic transmission, seeking to align with the Senate’s weaker version. When Speaker Tajudeen Abbas ruled the motion carried despite the “nays” being audibly louder, opposition members staged a walkout. The House ultimately passed the Electoral Act 2026 in the session that followed, though an aggrieved lawmaker told The Punch: “They have doctored the Electoral Act, but whatever they brought here will not be considered. Members are angry.” A 12-member joint conference committee was appointed to harmonise the Senate and House versions within one week.

Tear gas at the gates

Outside the National Assembly, the #OccupyNASS movement had camped for four consecutive days demanding mandatory e-transmission. On February 17, police fired tear gas on peaceful demonstrators including former Education Minister Oby Ezekwesili, activist Omoyele Sowore, and former presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo. Sowore declared it “a total declaration of war on Nigerians.” The House vowed to probe the use of force.

The underlying tension is familiar: electronic transmission was at the heart of Nigeria’s 2021 Electoral Act debate and is widely credited with reducing manipulation in the 2023 elections. Critics of the new legislation fear that restoring discretion will reopen a window that took a generation to close.

INEC sets the 2027 clock—and triggers a Ramadan row

On February 13, INEC Chairman Professor Joash Ojo Amupitan formally released the 2027 election timetable. Presidential and National Assembly elections are set for Saturday, February 20, 2027; governorship and state assembly polls for March 6, 2027. Party primaries will run from July through September 2026, with continuous voter registration opening in April. INEC’s total budget for the 2027 cycle stands at ₦873.8 billion, with an additional ₦171 billion for 2026 operations.

The announcement immediately ignited controversy: February 20, 2027, falls squarely within Ramadan (expected February 7–March 8, 2027). Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Muslim groups criticised the scheduling. Samson Itodo of Yiaga Africa warned that while elections might be moved to January, altering timelines on religious grounds could create precedents Nigeria would regret. President Tinubu also sent the Senate a nomination requesting confirmation of Retired Admiral Jamila Abubakar Sadiq as a new INEC National Commissioner — a move whose timing, with the electoral law still unsettled, did not go unnoticed.

El-Rufai detained, charged, and cornered from multiple angles

Former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai faced a dramatic week of legal peril on two simultaneous fronts. On February 12, DSS operatives attempted to arrest him at Abuja airport upon arrival from Cairo; his international passport was seized. The next day, he appeared on Arise TV and made the explosive claim that he and associates had intercepted the phone communications of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu: “Ribadu made the call, because we listened to their calls. The government thinks that they are the only ones who listen to calls.”

The admission triggered swift consequences. On February 16, the Federal Government filed a three-count criminal charge (FHC/ABJ/CR/99/2026) under the Cybercrimes Act 2024 and the Nigerian Communications Act 2003, accusing El-Rufai of unlawful interception, failure to report perpetrators, and using technical equipment to compromise national security. That same day, he honoured an EFCC invitation and was detained overnight for questioning over a separate probe into the alleged misappropriation of ₦423–432 billion in loans during his governorship (2015–2023). Two parallel investigations — one intelligence, one financial — are now underway. El-Rufai’s supporters describe the proceedings as a political vendetta; the government insists due process is being followed.

Obi rebrands, APC swallows opposition states whole

Peter Obi formally broke with the Labour Party on February 16, launching “Operation Rescue Nigeria” in Enugu and aligning his “Obidient” movement with the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The reorganised party installed former Senate President David Mark as national chairman and former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola as national secretary. Labour Party called his departure a “liberation.”

The APC’s gravitational pull continued to consume opposition ranks. The party now controls approximately 29–30 of Nigeria’s 36 states. Kano Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who defected from NNPP in January, held a massive rally at Sani Abacha Stadium this week. Adamawa Governor Ahmadu Fintiri (PDP) hinted heavily at defection during President Tinubu’s visit to Yola on February 16: “If that is the wish of my people to defect, I have no choice.” Only four PDP governors remain: Fintiri (Adamawa), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), and Seyi Makinde (Oyo). At this rate, the PDP’s claim to be a national opposition party will be a legal technicality rather than a political reality by the time primaries open.

Economy and business

Inflation hits a sweet spot as food prices plunge

The National Bureau of Statistics released January 2026 CPI data on February 16, revealing headline inflation fell to 15.10% — down from 15.15% in December 2025 and a dramatic 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded a year earlier. Most striking was food inflation, which plunged to 8.89%, its first single-digit reading in 128 months (since May 2015). Month-on-month headline inflation was actually negative at -2.88%, meaning consumer prices fell outright — an unusual development for a country that spent much of 2024 wrestling with a cost-of-living crisis. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) stood at 17.72%, down 7.55 points year-on-year.

Analysts credit a combination of naira stabilisation, a good harvest season, reduced logistics costs following fuel subsidy rationalisation, and CBN’s tight monetary stance. The politically convenient timing — just as the 2027 campaign season warms up — was not lost on commentators, though the data itself appears robust across multiple categories.

Reserves surge, naira holds firm

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso disclosed that net external reserves reached approximately $49 billion as of February 5 — up from roughly $3 billion in net terms when the Tinubu administration took office in May 2023. The naira strengthened throughout the week, with the official NFEM rate moving from ₦1,353.25/$ on February 11 to ₦1,351.18/$by February 17. The parallel market narrowed to ₦1,420–₦1,435/$, with the official-parallel premium collapsing to under 2% — a signal that the foreign exchange reforms have achieved a durable, if still fragile, convergence. Multiple institutions project GDP growth of 4.0–4.49% for 2026, with the IMF forecasting Nigeria’s nominal GDP will reach $334 billion, overtaking Algeria as Africa’s third-largest economy this year.

Stock market erupts to record highs on pension fund catalyst

The NGX All-Share Index surged to an all-time high of 190,281.57 on February 16, gaining 4.37% in a single session — the fourth such move exceeding 4% since November 2020. Market capitalisation jumped ₦5.11 trillion that day alone to reach ₦122.14 trillion, with a year-to-date return of 22.28%. Over the week ending February 13, the index had crossed 180,000 for the first time, adding ₦6.79 trillion across five sessions.

The primary catalyst was the National Pension Commission’s (PenCom) February 9 decision to raise equity investment limits across pension fund categories: RSA Fund I from 30% to 35%, Fund II from 25% to 33%, and Fund III from 10% to 15%. With total pension assets exceeding ₦26 trillion, CardinalStone Research estimates roughly ₦1 trillion in potential new equity flows under a base-case scenario — a structural liquidity injection, not a speculative one. Market breadth on February 16 showed 54 gainers versus 28 decliners, with Dangote Cement, Oando, and Aradel Holdings each hitting the +10% daily limit. MTN Nigeria’s market cap soared to ₦14.9 trillion, with shares reaching ₦779.70.

Oil, banking, and the revenue drive

NNPC Ltd reported after-tax profit of ₦5.76 trillion (~$4.26 billion) for FY2025, on revenue of ₦60.5 trillion, with average crude and condensate production of 1.62 million barrels per day. Nigerian Breweries posted revenue of ₦1.467 trillion (up 35%), with operating profit growth exceeding 190%. Sterling Financial Holdings confirmed both Sterling Bank and AltBank are fully recapitalised ahead of the March 31 deadline, having injected ₦153 billion — a signal to the market that the CBN’s recapitalisation drive is producing results rather than panic.

The Nigeria Revenue Service set a 2026 collection target of ₦40.7 trillion, a 44% increase from ₦28.29 trillion in 2025. The Debt Management Office announced plans to raise ₦800 billion in a February 23 bond auction — a 128.6% increase from the same month last year — across 7- and 10-year tenors, signalling the government’s intent to lengthen its debt maturity profile even as the fiscal gap remains wide.

Security and defence

American boots on Nigerian ground mark a security turning point

On February 11, Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters announced that U.S. military personnel would deploy to Nigeria for training and intelligence-sharing. By February 16, approximately ~100–200 U.S. troops plus equipment had arrived — precise numbers varied across U.S. and Nigerian accounts, with Military Times reporting a figure closer to 200. AFRICOM Commander Gen. Dagvin Anderson had met with Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Olufemi Oluyede and Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Waidi Shaibu in Abuja on February 9 to finalise arrangements. The troops will not engage in combat, and Nigerian forces retain complete command authority.

Human Rights Watch immediately called for robust human rights safeguards, citing Nigeria’s documented history of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detention, and enforced disappearances during security operations. The implicit question — whether American training will improve capability or reinforce existing impunity — is one that previous security partnerships across the Sahel have rarely answered satisfactorily.

A spreading violence problem

The deployment came against a backdrop of alarming breadth. A Vanguard analysis documented 1,258 violent deaths in just 41 days (January 1–February 10), while Bloomberg reported that jihadist violence is migrating southward toward Lagos — a fundamental shift in the geography of Nigeria’s insecurity crisis that previous containment strategies had not anticipated.

On the operational front, suspected Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters launched coordinated attacks on two military positions in Borno State on February 14–15, striking Pulka and Mandaragirau. A senior terrorist commander identified as Abou Aisha was killed, but soldiers and Civilian JTF members also died at Mandaragirau. In Zamfara, 11 bandits died when an IED they were transporting detonated prematurely. Nine children kidnapped from a church in Benue on February 8 were rescued by February 15, with four suspects arrested and an AK-47 recovered. President Tinubu, speaking at a security summit on February 15, declared victory over insurgency “certain” — a confident assertion that battlefield realities this week did not fully support.

Washington sanctions eight Nigerians

The U.S. Treasury’s OFAC sanctioned eight Nigerians on February 16 under terrorism and cybercrime designations, including Boko Haram financier Salih Yusuf Adamu — convicted in the UAE in 2022 for attempting to transfer $782,000 from Dubai to Nigeria for the group — and several Al-Barnawi family members linked to ISWAP. The timing, coinciding with the troop deployment announcement, suggests a deliberate U.S. strategy of pairing capacity-building with financial pressure against the networks sustaining the insurgency.

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

Power grid wobbles as maintenance exposes structural fragility

Infrastructure vulnerabilities were exposed mid-week when Seplat Energy conducted scheduled gas maintenance from February 12–15, temporarily reducing supply to the NNPC Gas Infrastructure pipeline network and prompting official warnings of low electricity supply for four days. The episode underscored Nigeria’s dependence on gas-fired power generation: installed capacity stands at approximately 13,000 MW but actual delivery to consumers rarely exceeds 4,500 MW. A single operator’s maintenance schedule can meaningfully dim the national grid.

The 2026 federal power budget allocates ₦1.096 trillion in capital spending, with 46% going to the Rural Electrification Agency for mini-grids and decentralised systems — a notable strategic pivot away from the national grid model that has absorbed decades of investment with limited returns.

Port clearance goes digital

The Nigeria Customs Service launched a digital One-Stop-Shop platform on February 16, aimed at slashing cargo clearance times from the current average of 21 days to 48 hours by integrating all port agencies onto a single interface. If the ambition is realised, it would eliminate one of the most frequently cited obstacles to doing business in Nigeria and reduce the informal “facilitation” costs that importers currently factor into their landed price calculations.

Aviation incident raises Boeing questions

An Arik Air Boeing 737-700 flying from Lagos to Port Harcourt on February 11 suffered a major internal failure — likely a fan blade separation — in the left engine at 27,000 feet, forcing an emergency diversion to Benin. All 80 people on board were uninjured. The incident raised questions about fleet maintenance standards at Arik and, more broadly, about Nigeria’s ageing commercial aviation infrastructure. The NCAA opened an investigation.

International relations

Nigeria wins an African Central Bank seat and eyes the UN Security Council

At the 39th AU Summit in Addis Ababa (February 14–15), Nigeria secured a permanent seat on the Board of the African Central Bank — described by Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar as “a landmark development” underscoring Nigeria’s role in shaping Africa’s financial architecture. Vice President Kashim Shettima, who represented President Tinubu at the summit, also used the platform to advocate health security sovereignty, urging African nations to build “resilient, self-sustaining, homegrown health systems.”

A bilateral meeting with UN Secretary-General António Guterres proved diplomatically significant. Guterres endorsed Nigeria’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat, stating: “This is 2026 — not 1946. Whenever decisions about Africa and the world are on the table, Africa must be at the table.” He described Nigeria as “uniquely positioned to lead the continent toward superpower status.” At the C-5 Plus Summit on South Sudan, Nigeria called for the immediate release of detained First Vice President Riek Machar and an inclusive national dialogue — a position that keeps Abuja visible in the continent’s most active peace processes.

The UAE deal and a royal invitation

President Tinubu on February 17 lauded the signing of a strategic MoU between BUA Group and UAE-based AD Ports Group and MAIR Group covering sugar refining, agro-industrial development, and logistics. Tinubu’s upcoming State Visit to the United Kingdom on March 18–19, following a formal invitation from King Charles III, was announced during the week — a visit that Nigerian diaspora groups in the UK described as long overdue.

ECOWAS’ enforcement gap laid bare

The ECOWAS Court’s President, on a visit to Abuja on February 17, lamented that 80% of the Court’s judgments cannot be enforced across member states — a structural weakness that undermines the bloc’s credibility as a regional rule-of-law institution. The disclosure came alongside NBS data showing ECOWAS-based investors contributed a negligible 0.01% ($2.16 million) of Nigeria’s $16.78 billion in foreign capital importation for the first nine months of 2025. For a regional body whose principal economic rationale is deeper integration, both figures are damning.

Nigerians warned off foreign battlefields

The Foreign Ministry issued a formal warning against illegal recruitment of Nigerians into foreign armed conflicts, citing deceptive offers linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. The government’s position: participation in foreign conflicts without authorisation carries criminal liability under Nigerian law.

U.S. visa restrictions remain a bilateral irritant, with Nigerian B1/B2 applicants now required to post bonds of up to $15,000 and limited to single-entry, three-month validity — an asymmetry that sits awkwardly alongside the week’s troop deployment and security partnership announcements.

Society and culture

Ramadan begins — and immediately complicates everything

The Sultan of Sokoto directed Muslims to search for the Ramadan crescent on February 17, and it was sighted that evening across multiple locations. Fasting began Wednesday, February 18 — a development that simultaneously adjusted commercial rhythms, deepened the 2027 election-calendar controversy, and reminded policymakers that Nigeria’s religious calendar is as consequential as any legislative one.

Nollywood’s Valentine triumph

Valentine’s weekend belonged to Nollywood. “Love and New Notes”, directed by Kayode Kasum and starring Timini Egbuson, opened on February 13 with an opening weekend gross of ₦106.5 million — the biggest Nollywood opening of 2026 and the first to cross ₦100 million outside December. Its Valentine’s Day single-day take of ₦48 million set a 2026 record. FilmOne Entertainment declared the film “did not just open in cinemas; it kicked the door down.” The figure is a modest number by Hollywood standards, but for a domestic industry that subsistence-farmed its audience through years of piracy and limited screen count, it represents a structural shift in consumer spending on entertainment.

The Super Eagles’ World Cup fate hangs in the balance

Nigeria’s 2026 World Cup qualification remains in legal limbo. FIFA set February 16 as the date for a ruling on Nigeria’s protest against the Democratic Republic of Congo, following a disputed November 2025 qualifier, but no verdict emerged by week’s end. NFF General Secretary Dr. Mohammed Sanusi maintained: “We have a strong case.” A favourable ruling would send the Super Eagles to an intercontinental playoff in Mexico; an unfavourable one would end their World Cup hopes for a second consecutive cycle — a result that would amplify the NFF’s growing governance pressures.

The week ahead

February 19 (Thursday): The Senate is expected to begin screening President Tinubu’s nominee Retired Admiral Jamila Abubakar Sadiq as INEC National Commissioner. The timing will keep election-integrity questions on the legislative agenda.

February 23 (Monday): The CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee convenes for its 304th meeting (February 23–24). With headline inflation at 15.10% and the naira stable, market consensus leans toward a 50–100 basis-point rate cut from 27.50%. A cut would validate the reform narrative; a hold would signal the CBN remains focused on anchoring expectations before the 2027 electoral cycle introduces fresh fiscal pressures.

February 23 (Monday): The DMO’s ₦800 billion bond auction will test market appetite for longer-dated government paper at a moment when pension funds are rotating into equities. Yield movements will signal whether the fiscal and monetary tracks are aligned.

February 23 (Monday): The 12-member joint conference committee on the Electoral Act 2026 faces its one-week deadline for harmonisation. Whether the committee produces a version that satisfies civil society’s demands for mandatory e-transmission, or simply ratifies the discretionary compromise, will determine whether the #OccupyNASS protests resume.

February 24 (Tuesday): FIFA is expected to issue its ruling on Nigeria’s protest against DR Congo over the disputed 2026 World Cup qualifier. A positive outcome sends the Super Eagles to an intercontinental playoff; an adverse one ends their World Cup campaign for 2026.

Rolling deadline — March 31: The CBN bank recapitalisation deadline for international commercial banks (₦500 billion minimum) is six weeks away. Final CBN verification of compliance is intensifying, and the market is watching for any last-minute capital raise announcements or merger signals from institutions that have not yet confirmed their positions.

Wildcard: The onset of Ramadan on February 18 will reshape both economic activity and political messaging. With the 2027 election calendar now formally entangled with the Islamic calendar, every major political development through March will be filtered through a lens of religious sensitivity — in a country where that lens is rarely neutral.

Reporting draws on Nairametrics, Punch, Vanguard, Premium Times, The Cable, Daily Post, ThisDay, Channels Television, Leadership, Daily Trust, allAfrica, Bloomberg, Military Times, Human Rights Watch, CNBC Africa, and official government statements.

Nigeria’s contradictions were on full display during the week of February 4–10. The stock market smashed records, foreign reserves approached $49 billion, and the naira clawed back ground — yet 162 villagers lay dead in Kwara State after the country’s deadliest jihadist massacre in a decade. Lawmakers who had just passed the world’s largest black-nation budget — ₦58.47 trillion — found themselves barricaded inside parliament by angry citizens demanding they protect the integrity of the ballot. President Bola Tinubu simultaneously hosted America’s top Africa general and unveiled a five-year development plan, projecting a confidence that events on the ground seemed determined to undermine. What emerged was a portrait of a country sprinting forward on some fronts while lurching backwards on others — and a political class forced, at least briefly, to reckon with the gap.

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Table of contents

Politics and governance

• The Senate’s electoral sleight-of-hand

• Peter Obi storms the gates

• A tactical retreat

• ₦58 trillion: Africa’s biggest budget advances

• Tinubu’s five-year vision

Economy and business

• Cardoso’s $49 billion triumph

• Stock market hits record highs

• But the real economy stumbles

• NNPC throws in the towel

• Dangote’s pricing puzzle

Security and defence

• 162 dead in Kwara’s jihadist nightmare

• The insurgency spreads west

• Operation Savannah Shield launched

• A nation under siege

• Rare good news: 183 hostages freed

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

• Fintech regulation comes of age

• The power sector’s persistent pain

• Green shoots: mini-grids and rail

International relations

• America’s top Africa general comes calling

• Remi Tinubu’s Washington moment

• Multilateral confidence—with caveats

• Tsamiya-Kamba corridor

• Colonial ghosts: the £420 million ruling

Society and culture

• Fela’s posthumous Grammy glory

• Lookman lights up Madrid

• IPOB cancels the Monday lockdown

The week ahead

• Inflation data and the MPC countdown

• FCT elections: the final stretch

• Unfinished business

Politics and governance

The Senate’s electoral sleight-of-hand

The week’s dominant political drama began on February 4, when the Senate passed 155 clauses of the Electoral Act 2022 (Repeal and Re-enactment) Amendment Bill — and quietly gutted the provision mandating real-time electronic transmission of results from polling units. Senate President Godswill Akpabio insisted the change was merely semantic — swapping “transmission” for “transfer” — but nobody was buying it. By February 5, the PDP, NNPP, and African Democratic Congress had issued a rare joint condemnation. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar called it a democratic setback. Civil society coalitions — including the 70-member Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room — accused the Senate of “betraying public trust.”

Peter Obi storms the gates

The backlash crystallized on February 9 when former presidential candidate Peter Obi led hundreds of protesters to the gates of the National Assembly complex under the banner #OccupyNASS. He was joined by activist Omoyele Sowore, former APC stalwart Rotimi Amaechi (who brought his doctor son), and rights campaigner Aisha Yesufu. Heavy deployments of police, army, and civil defense corps sealed the complex — a show of force that only amplified the optics of a ruling party under siege. Even Nasir El-Rufai, the former Kaduna governor now in the ADC, pledged solidarity from abroad.

A tactical retreat

By February 10, the Senate convened an emergency session and re-amended Section 60(3) to permit electronic transmission to INEC’s IReV portal, with a fallback to manual forms during network failure. A 12-member conference committee was constituted to harmonize differences with the House of Representatives. Akpabio indicated the bill would reach Tinubu’s desk within days. The reversal was a rare instance of street pressure bending legislative outcomes — though sceptics note the “network failure” caveat leaves ample room for discretion in rural areas where connectivity is weakest and rigging most tempting.

₦58 trillion: Africa’s biggest budget advances

In parallel, the ₦58.47 trillion 2026 budget — tagged the “Budget of Consolidation” — passed second reading in both chambers during the week. The House approved it on February 5 before Speaker Tajudeen Abbas declared a two-week recess for committee-level defence; the Senate followed on February 10, with a target passage date of March 17. The numbers are eye-catching: ₦5.41 trillion for security, ₦3.56 trillion for infrastructure, and a deficit of ₦23.85 trillion — roughly 41% of total spending financed by borrowing. Senate Appropriations Chairman Solomon Adeola flagged a discrepancy between Tinubu’s stated figure (₦58.18 trillion) and the actual bill (₦58.47 trillion), a detail that captured a persistent sloppiness in fiscal presentation.

Tinubu’s five-year vision

Meanwhile, the Second National Economic Council Conference (February 9–10) saw Tinubu unveil his Renewed Hope National Development Plan 2026–2030, built on five pillars: economic diversification, human capital, subnational competitiveness, private-sector-led growth, and climate resilience. Vice-President Kashim Shettima struck a populist note, insisting “a child born in Lafia must have the same chance of thriving as one born in Lagos.” The plan’s ambitions will be measured against a more revealing development: the Nigeria Revenue Service reported ₦28.3 trillion collected in 2025 — a 30% increase — but still well short of the ₦40.7 trillion targeted for 2026.

Economy and business

Cardoso’s $49 billion triumph

The economic data pouring out of the NEC Conference was, by Nigerian standards, remarkable. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso disclosed that gross external reserves had reached $49 billion as of February 5 — a near-sevenfold increase from the $3 billion net figure he inherited. The naira firmed to ₦1,354.90/$ on the official NFEM window by February 9, its strongest since May 2024, while the parallel-market premium collapsed to approximately 6–7%, down from over 16% months earlier. Cardoso made a historic claim: the CBN is now a net buyer of foreign exchange, rather than a seller desperately defending the currency.

Stock market hits record highs

The Nigerian Exchange had an electrifying week. The All-Share Index surged to an all-time high of approximately 173,952 points by February 9, a weekly gain of nearly 4% — the strongest bullish run of 2026. Market capitalization swelled to ₦111.6 trillion (roughly $82 billion). Oil and gas stocks led, with the sectoral index up 10.88%, driven by Aradel Holdings and Seplat Energy. Banking shares gained 3.57% as the March 31 recapitalization deadline approached, concentrating investor minds on which institutions would merge and which would survive.

But the real economy stumbles

Yet warning signs flickered beneath the headlines. The Stanbic IBTC/S&P Global PMI fell to 49.7 in January — the first contraction reading since the survey began in 2014, ending a 13-month expansion streak. Wholesale and retail demand stalled; input costs climbed. The disconnect between surging asset prices and softening real-economy activity echoes a familiar pattern in emerging markets where capital-market euphoria outruns the lived experience of consumers.

NNPC throws in the towel

On the energy front, the 9th Nigeria International Energy Summit (February 4–5) produced a startling confession from NNPC CEO Bayo Ojulari: the country’s four state-owned refineries — with combined capacity of 445,000 barrels per day — were shut because they generated “monumental losses” at 50–55% utilisation, despite ₦13.2 trillion ($9.7 billion) invested over the years. NNPC is now courting foreign equity partners, including a Chinese petrochemical firm, to take stakes.

Dangote’s pricing puzzle

Ojulari credited the Dangote Refinery (650,000 bpd) with providing “critical breathing space.” Dangote, for its part, cut its PMS gantry price to ₦774 per litre on February 10 — though retail prices nationwide still range from ₦817 to ₦905, and imported petrol landing costs (₦721.80/litre) remained cheaper than Dangote’s gate price, raising awkward questions about the refinery’s cost competitiveness.

Security and defence

162 dead in Kwara’s jihadist nightmare

The week’s gravest development was the massacre of at least 162 people in Woro and Nuku villages, Kaiama Local Government Area, Kwara State, on the night of February 3–4. Attackers demanded villagers abandon the Nigerian constitution for their version of sharia; when the Muslim-majority communities refused, militants opened fire, bound victims’ hands, slit throats, and burned homes. Amnesty International described it as a “stunning security failure.” The Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute labelled it the deadliest jihadist attack outside the northeast to date — and the deadliest of the decade.

The insurgency spreads west

The perpetrators’ identity remains contested. Local officials pointed to Lakurawa, an IS-affiliated group, but analysts at the Hudson Institute assessed Boko Haram’s “Sadiku faction” — whose leader Bakura Doro had signed warning letters to villages weeks earlier — as more probable. The geographic significance is unmistakable: Kwara State lies hundreds of kilometres west of the traditional northeastern insurgency zone, confirming fears of jihadist expansion into central and western Nigeria. At least five distinct armed-group categories — Boko Haram (JAS), ISWAP, Lakurawa, JNIM, and criminal bandits — are now active simultaneously, competing for territory and driving geographic sprawl.

Operation Savannah Shield launched

President Tinubu ordered the deployment of an army battalion and launched Operation Savannah Shield on February 5 to flush out enclaves in Kwara and Niger States. VP Shettima visited the affected communities on February 7. But the sheer breadth of violence across multiple states underscored the military’s overstretched posture.

A nation under siege

On February 7, gunmen attacked a Catholic priest’s residence in Kauru, Kaduna State, killing seven people (including two soldiers and a police officer) and abducting Father Nathaniel Asuwaye along with ten others. Pope Leo XIV expressed condolences during Sunday’s Angelus. In Benue, nine gunmen in military uniforms ambushed a commercial bus on February 8, killing one and abducting 15 passengers. Across Plateau, Benue, and Kaduna, more than 90 people were kidnapped during the week.

Rare good news: 183 hostages freed

A rare bright spot: all 183 worshippers abducted from churches in Kurmin Wali, Kaduna State, on January 18 were confirmed freed by February 6 — though analysts suspect ransom payments remain the norm, and the industrial scale of abductions (hundreds of victims processed weekly) points to a self-sustaining criminal economy.

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

Fintech regulation comes of age

The Central Bank of Nigeria released its landmark fintech policy blueprint during the week — a comprehensive framework titled “Shaping the Future of Fintech in Nigeria” that signals a shift from laissez-faire expansion to institutional design. Key provisions include a single regulatory window for fintechs, Compliance-as-a-Service utilities, and cross-border licensing pilots with Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and South Africa. The document acknowledged that 88% of fintech operators say compliance costs materially constrain innovation, with a third facing product-launch timelines exceeding one year. Nigerian startups raised over $520 million in equity in 2024; the new framework aims to sustain that momentum through regulatory clarity rather than regulatory absence.

The power sector’s persistent pain

Physical infrastructure told a less encouraging story. The national power grid’s persistent instability — it collapsed twice in late January — remains a structural drag. An estimated 7-million-meter gap hobbles the distribution system, and Nigerians spent approximately ₦16 trillion on self-generation in 2023. The government’s Presidential Metering Initiative secured ₦28 billion in NERC-approved disbursements to distribution companies, but progress is incremental against a deficit measured in millions of units.

Green shoots: mini-grids and rail

On the brighter side, Nigeria’s decentralized energy push is yielding results: over 120 mini-grid projects were completed in the past 18 months under the Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP), successfully supplying reliable power to more than 90,000 households and small businesses. Simultaneously, the Kaduna-Kano standard gauge railway—a critical artery for northern commerce—remains on schedule for its December 2026 commissioning, representing a rare point of steady progress in the nation’s transport infrastructure.

International relations

America’s top Africa general comes calling

The week’s most symbolically charged diplomatic event was the February 8 visit of AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson to Abuja — the first such engagement since the December 2025 US-Nigerian joint airstrikes against terrorist positions in Sokoto State and the subsequent deployment of US military advisers. Anderson met the full Nigerian security establishment behind closed doors. The visit underscored a deepening security partnership, though Nigeria is walking a tightrope: accepting American intelligence and kinetic support while insisting US forces operate only in advisory roles, and managing domestic sensitivities around sovereignty.

Remi Tinubu’s Washington moment

First Lady Oluremi Tinubu performed a different kind of diplomatic mission at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington on February 5, where President Trump publicly recognised her as a pastor — a calculated move to counter the “Christian persecution” narrative that has strained bilateral relations since Trump’s redesignation of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern. Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu called it “a masterclass in soft power diplomacy.”

Multilateral confidence—with caveats

On February 5, Finance Minister Wale Edun held strategic talks with World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde in Abuja, reaffirming multilateral confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory.

The United States extended the AGOA trade preference — but only through December 2026, a notably short horizon compared to the previous 10-year renewal, creating uncertainty for Nigeria’s largest duty-free access channel to the US market.

Tsamiya-Kamba corridor

In a pragmatic shift, Tinubu ordered the reopening of the Tsamiya-Kamba corridor on February 9, unblocking some 2,000 trucks transiting from Cotonou to Niger — a quiet normalisation of relations with Niamey’s military government.

Colonial ghosts: the £420 million ruling

The Enugu High Court ruling on February 6 ordering the UK to pay £420 million in reparations for the 1949 Iva Valley coal mine massacre — £20 million per family of the 21 miners killed by colonial police — was symbolically potent if practically unenforceable. London said it had not been formally notified. The ruling lands in a global moment when reparations debates are intensifying, and even its symbolic weight matters.

Society and culture

Fela’s posthumous Grammy glory

Two developments bookended the cultural landscape. Afrobeat pioneer Fela Anikulapo Kuti became the first African artist to receive a Grammy Lifetime Achievement Award, honoured posthumously on January 31 alongside Cher, Whitney Houston, and Carlos Santana. The reverberations carried through the week: on February 7, his sons visited his grave to offer sacrifices; on February 8, the US Embassy publicly hailed the recognition. For a country whose soft power increasingly outpaces its hard power, the award was a moment of collective pride — a reminder that Nigeria’s greatest export may be its culture.

Lookman lights up Madrid

Nigerian football offered its own drama. Ademola Lookman, fresh from a €40 million transfer to Atletico Madrid, scored on his Copa del Rey debut on February 6 — a goal and an assist in a 5–0 demolition of Real Betis. The signing generated 600,000 new social media followers for the Spanish club within 72 hours. Meanwhile, Victor Osimhen netted his 200th career goal for Galatasaray on February 8, and the NFF opened contract extension talks with Super Eagles coach Eric Chelle on February 5 after a third-place AFCON finish.

IPOB cancels the Monday lockdown

Perhaps the most consequential social development was IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu’s order on February 8 to permanently cancel the Monday sit-at-home across southeastern Nigeria — effective immediately. The weekly lockdown, which began in 2021 after Kanu’s detention, had paralysed economic activity across five states for nearly five years, shuttering markets, schools, and banks every Monday. IPOB warned of “false-flag operations” by rogue elements, and indeed, on February 9, security forces killed three suspected militants enforcing the defunct order on the Nnewi-Oba Road in Anambra. Whether the cancellation holds will depend on IPOB’s ability to discipline its own splinter factions — but even partial compliance would represent a significant economic release valve for the Southeast.

The week ahead

Inflation data and the MPC countdown

The coming week sits at the intersection of several critical timelines. The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release January 2026 CPI data around February 15 — a figure that will shape expectations for the CBN’s 304th Monetary Policy Committee meeting on February 23–24, where markets anticipate a 100-basis-point rate cut from the current 27%. Continued disinflation toward 14% would strengthen the case; any uptick would complicate it.

FCT elections: the final stretch

Political campaigning for the February 21 FCT Area Council elections — covering 1.68 million registered voters across six councils — enters its final stretch, with campaigns running through midnight February 19. The elections serve as a dry run for 2027 logistics, particularly the contested electronic transmission provisions. INEC will formally receive sensitive election materials from the CBN on February 18, with preparations intensifying during the week.

Unfinished business

The Electoral Act harmonisation between Senate and House is expected to advance during February 11–17, with pressure mounting to finalise the bill so INEC can release the 2027 election timetable.

The bank recapitalisation deadline of March 31 looms ever closer, and institutions that have not yet met requirements will face intensifying pressure — potential forced mergers could be announced.

China’s handover of the new $32 million ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja — a gleaming complex dubbed “The Eye of West Africa” — is expected sometime in February, possibly during this week, in an event laden with geopolitical symbolism.

The week of February 4–10 distilled Nigeria’s central paradox into seven days. The economic reform programme is yielding measurable results: reserves have surged, inflation is retreating, the currency is stabilising, and global institutions are upgrading their assessments. Yet the Kwara massacre — committed in a state that had never before experienced jihadist violence of this scale — demonstrated that insecurity is not contracting but metastasising, outpacing military capacity to contain it. The Electoral Act drama revealed a political class still inclined to manipulate democratic infrastructure when it can, and a citizenry increasingly unwilling to tolerate it. The IPOB sit-at-home cancellation, if it holds, could unlock billions in lost economic output across the Southeast. And Fela Kuti’s posthumous Grammy served as an ironic coda: the man who spent his life raging against the Nigerian state was honoured by the global establishment, even as the dysfunctions he sang about endure. Nigeria is getting richer and more dangerous, more democratic and more contested, more globally integrated and more internally fractured — all at once.

Nigeria faced converging institutional pressures in the week of January 28-February 3, 2026, as lawmakers missed deadlines on electoral reform critical for 2027 polls, ISWAP deployed armed drones for the first time (killing 25 people in Borno State), and Rivers State’s impeachment crisis landed in court. Economic news offered contrast: NNPC unveiled a $60 billion gas investment plan, PayPal returned after two decades through a Paga partnership, and the stock market hit record highs—even as fuel prices jumped twice and the national grid collapsed again.

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Table of contents

Politics and governance

• Electoral reform faces a February deadline

• What’s in the Electoral Act bill

• Rivers State impeachment attempt stalls in the courts

• The godfather-protégé rift behind the Rivers crisis

Economy and business

• NNPC’s $60 billion gas masterplan signals energy transition

• Petrol prices jump twice as stock market hits record highs

• BUA Foods and Wema Bank post triple-digit profit growth

Security and defence

• ISWAP’s drone attacks mark a tactical escalation

• Banditry claims more lives in Northwest and Plateau

• Military strikes back: ISWAP commander and bandit leaders killed

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

• PayPal-Paga partnership opens global payment channels

• CBN elevates Moniepoint, OPay and Kuda to national licenses

• Power grid collapses continue while infrastructure investments grow

International relations

• Turkey visit yields nine agreements and a $5 billion trade target

• ECOWAS lifts Guinea sanctions as terrorism dominates regional agenda

Society and culture

• Healthcare advances amid disease outbreaks

• NELFUND extends student loan deadline to February 27

The week ahead

Politics and governance

Electoral reform faces a February deadline

The week’s most consequential political development was the Senate’s continued delay on the Electoral Act 2022 (Repeal and Re-enactment) Bill. INEC must legally issue its Notice of Election by February 24, 2026—exactly 360 days before the scheduled February 20, 2027 presidential election—creating intense pressure on lawmakers.

The Senate began formal consideration on January 29-30, with Senate President Godswill Akpabio emphasizing thoroughness: “This is a very important bill, especially as it is election time.” On January 30, the chamber formed a 7-member ad hoc committee chaired by Senator Niyi Adegbomore to harmonize positions within 48 hours. Despite this compressed timeline, the bill remained inconclusive by February 3 after four hours of closed-door deliberations. The House of Representatives had passed its version on December 23, 2025, but adjourned for two weeks to conduct budget defense sessions.

What’s in the Electoral Act bill

Key provisions in the bill include mandatory electronic transmission of results to INEC’s portal, downloadable digital voter cards, and substantially increased campaign spending limits—presidential election expenses would jump from N5 billion to N10 billion. Civil society groups warned that further delays would force the 2027 elections under the flawed 2022 framework.

Rivers State impeachment attempt stalls in the courts

The week’s most dramatic state-level conflict saw the attempted impeachment of Governor Siminalayi Fubara blocked by judicial intervention. On January 30, Rivers State Chief Judge Justice Simeon Amadi declined to constitute a 7-member investigative panel, citing subsisting interim court injunctions from two suits filed by Governor Fubara and Deputy Governor Ngozi Odu.

The godfather-protégé rift behind the Rivers crisis

The constitutional standoff reflects the ongoing power struggle between Fubara and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, his predecessor and erstwhile political patron. The South-South Professional Women Association alleged that pro-Wike lawmakers demanded N500 billion for “constituency projects” before initiating impeachment proceedings. Governor Fubara appeared publicly at the NPA Port Harcourt International Polo Tournament on February 1, declaring: “I’m here. I’m still the governor of Rivers State.”

President Tinubu reportedly intervened before departing for Turkey, telling Fubara that “Wike remains the undisputed political leader of Rivers State” while ordering Wike to halt impeachment plots. By February 3, ThisDay reported another presidential peace-brokering effort as tensions continued.

Economy and business

NNPC’s $60 billion gas masterplan signals energy transition

The most significant economic announcement came on January 30 when NNPC unveiled the Nigerian Gas Master Plan 2026 at NNPC Towers in Abuja. The plan targets:

• $60+ billion in new investments across the oil and gas value chain by 2030

• Production of 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030

• Monetization of Nigeria’s 210 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves

NNPC Board Chairman Engr. Ahmadu Musa Kida called it “a landmark moment in the evolution of Nigeria’s energy future.” The plan aligns with the Federal Government’s “Decade of Gas Initiative” and builds on the 2008 masterplan.

Petrol prices jump twice as stock market hits record highs

On the consumer side, NNPC raised petrol prices twice during the week—to N835/litre in Lagos on January 28, then to N892/litre by January 30—following Dangote Refinery’s price increase to N799/litre ex-gantry. The Nigerian stock market closed January with the All-Share Index at 165,370 points, up 6.27% year-to-date, while market capitalization reached N106.15 trillion.

BUA Foods and Wema Bank post triple-digit profit growth

Corporate earnings were strong: BUA Foods reported 91% profit growth to N507.7 billion, becoming Nigeria’s most valuable listed company at approximately N14.38 trillion market cap. Wema Bank’s profit before tax jumped 117% to N222.1 billion. The FGN bond auction was 71% oversubscribed, with the government raising N1.54 trillion against a N900 billion offer.

Security and defence

ISWAP’s drone attacks mark a tactical escalation

The deadliest security incident occurred on January 29 when ISWAP launched a coordinated pre-dawn assault on the Nigerian Army’s Sabon Gari military base in Damboa Local Government Area, Borno State. The attack employed multiple armed drones—a significant tactical escalation—and killed at least 25 people, including 9 soldiers, 2 Civilian Joint Task Force members, and 14+ civilian laborers working on bridge reconstruction.

On the same day, ISWAP ambushed a military foot patrol near Damasak, killing the base commander (an Army Major) and leaving 22 soldiers initially unaccounted for.

Banditry claims more lives in Northwest and Plateau

A day earlier, on January 28, suspected bandits ambushed a police patrol in Katsina State, killing 3 officers. By February 3, bandits attacked Zurak community in Plateau State, killing 5 civilians and 1 soldier.

Military strikes back: ISWAP commander and bandit leaders killed

Military counter-operations claimed significant successes: troops eliminated senior ISWAP commander “Julaibib” on January 30, neutralized 12 insurgents at Bula Dalo, and killed notorious bandit leader Kachalla Dan Gudale Shangel in Niger State. The week’s security toll was severe—at least 16+ security personnel killed and 19+ civilians killed, against approximately 25+ terrorists and bandits neutralized.

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

PayPal-Paga partnership opens global payment channels

The week’s most consequential fintech development was the January 27 launch of the PayPal-Paga partnership, enabling Nigerians to receive international payments for the first time since PayPal excluded them in 2004 over fraud concerns. PayPal committed $100 million to Nigerian fintech partnerships through its “PayPal World Initiative.”

Paga, with 21 million users and N17 trillion in 2025 transaction volume, now allows Nigerians to link PayPal accounts and receive payments from 200+ countries, withdrawing in naira or retaining dollar balances. Paga founder Tayo Oviosu called it “a full-circle moment,” noting that PayPal inspired his company’s creation.

CBN elevates Moniepoint, OPay and Kuda to national licenses

The Central Bank of Nigeria also upgraded licenses for Moniepoint, OPay, and Kuda Bank to national status, requiring them to maintain N5 billion minimum capital and establish physical branches. A CBN report released February 2 showed Nigerian fintechs processed 11 billion transactions, with 87.5% using AI primarily for fraud detection.

Power grid collapses continue while infrastructure investments grow

Nigeria experienced two national grid collapses in January 2026—on January 23 and January 27. The January 27 collapse, originating from a voltage disturbance at Gombe Transmission Substation, dropped generation from 3,825 MW to zero. The Nigerian Independent System Operator issued a clarifying statement on January 28 terming it a “partial system collapse.”

The broader infrastructure picture showed notable progress: 28 new mini-grids are scheduled for completion in Q1 2026 under the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), with an additional 39 systems in the project pipeline. In a major digital move, the Federal Government took a 49% stake in a World Bank-backed $2 billion project to deploy 90,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable nationwide. Meanwhile, while the construction market continues to expand toward a N25.72 trillion total valuation, real-term growth is projected at a more moderate 5.3% for 2025.

International relations

Turkey visit yields nine agreements and a $5 billion trade target

President Tinubu’s state visit to Turkey (January 26-31) produced nine bilateral agreements signed on January 27 and a commitment to increase bilateral trade from $2 billion to $5 billion. The most significant was the establishment of a Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) and a Military Cooperation Protocol covering intelligence sharing and specialized training.

Turkish President Erdoğan pledged support for Nigeria’s counter-terrorism efforts: “We stand by the friendly people of Nigeria in their fight against terrorism.” The Nigerian delegation included the Ministers of Defense, Foreign Affairs, Finance, and the National Security Adviser. Turkey is Nigeria’s largest trading partner in sub-Saharan Africa, with over 50 Turkish companies operating in Nigeria.

ECOWAS lifts Guinea sanctions as terrorism dominates regional agenda

Separately, ECOWAS lifted all sanctions on Guinea on January 28 following the December 2025 presidential election. At a high-level security conference in Accra (January 29-30), West African leaders agreed that the region has become the “global epicenter of terrorism” with at least 8 terror attacks daily claiming an average of 44 lives.

Society and culture

Healthcare advances amid disease outbreaks

The week saw continued management of a Lassa fever outbreak that had claimed 28 deaths from 93 laboratory-confirmed infections within the first three weeks of January 2026. Meanwhile, a landmark $5 billion US-Nigeria health agreement signed on January 10 (with nearly $2.1 billion from the US and $2.9 billion domestic contribution) continued to dominate healthcare discussions. Health Minister Prof. Muhammad Ali Pate reported encouraging metrics: 17% reduction in maternal deaths and 12% decline in newborn deaths across high-burden areas.

NELFUND extends student loan deadline to February 27

The education sector saw NELFUND extend its student loan application deadline from January 31 to February 27, 2026, while JAMB registration opened January 26 for the 2026 academic year. Some 18 million Nigerian children remain out of school despite a N3.52 trillion education budget representing 6.1% of total government spending—below UNESCO’s 15-20% recommendation.

The week ahead

February 4-13: West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) statutory meetings in Monrovia, Liberia, with CBN Governor Cardoso participating in discussions on the proposed ECO currency and regional convergence criteria

February 9: Senate Appropriations Committee holds public hearing on ₦58.47 trillion 2026 budget

February 10: Final day for voter card collection at FCT Area Council offices; cross-examination resumes for ex-Acting Accountant-General Chukwunyere Nwabuoku (₦868.4m fraud case) and former CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele (naira redesign trial) at Federal High Court Maitama

The Federal Republic is a weekly newsletter covering Nigerian politics, economics, security, infrastructure, and society. Subscribe for briefings every Wednesday.

As inflation dropped to 15.15% and the naira strengthened, delivering tangible evidence that President Tinubu’s painful reforms are working, the country simultaneously grappled with a collapsing national power grid, over 170 church worshippers held hostage by bandits, and an opposition in freefall.

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Table of contents

Politics and governance

• The opposition’s vanishing act continues

• National Assembly resumes with ambitious agenda

Economy and business

• Inflation falls, but oil constraints loom

• Banking recapitalization on track

Security and defence

• Bandits, ransom demands, and an ambush

• U.S. security cooperation deepens

Society and culture

• Nollywood’s box-office revolution

• Labour unrest paralyzes Abuja

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

• The grid collapses—again

• Dangote keeps the lights on—and pumps running

• Digital economy advances

International relations

• Nigeria’s Davos debut and Turkey pivot

• ECOWAS digital transformation dialogue

The week ahead

Politics and governance

The opposition’s vanishing act continues

Governor Abba Yusuf’s formal defection to the APC on January 26 marked the end of a months-long rift with his political godfather, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso responded with characteristic drama, declaring January 23 “World Betrayal Day” and warning that frequent defections erode public confidence in democracy. The episode mirrors a recurring pattern in Nigerian politics—the protégé-benefactor fallout that consumed Obasanjo and Atiku, Tinubu and Ambode, Wike and Fubara. But this defection carries strategic weight: Kano is Nigeria’s most populous state and the NNPP’s only stronghold. With its loss, the party’s national relevance evaporates.

The week also saw Agboola Ajayi, the PDP’s gubernatorial candidate in Ondo State’s 2024 election, rejoin the APC on January 27. Ondo’s APC chairman triumphantly described the state as now effectively “a one-party state.” The opposition’s collapse is staggering: the PDP has shrunk from 12 governors in 2023 to just four. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have both abandoned their parties. A Yiaga Africa survey released January 22 found only 45% of Nigerians trust the Independent National Electoral Commission—yet 77% still intend to vote in 2027, suggesting faith in democracy persists even as institutional confidence erodes.

National Assembly resumes with ambitious agenda

Parliament returned from recess on January 27 with a crowded legislative calendar. Priorities include clause-by-clause consideration of constitutional amendments (the Senate committee has received 69 bills including boundary adjustments and 278 local government creation requests), Electoral Act reforms, and a Special Seats Bill proposing 182 additional women-only legislative positions nationwide. The ₦58.47 trillion 2026 budget—benchmarked at $64.85 per barrel and 1.84 million bpd oil production—awaits ministerial defense before appropriation committees.

More ominously, military tribunals are set to try at least 16 officers detained since October 2025 for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government. Under Nigerian military law, attempted coup carries penalties ranging from life imprisonment to death—a stark reminder that beneath the democratic veneer, civilian rule remains fragile.

Economy and business

Inflation falls, but oil constraints loom

The economic data released this week reinforced cautious optimism. December’s 15.15% headline inflation rate—down sharply from 34.80% a year earlier—suggests the Central Bank’s restrictive monetary policy is working. Food inflation dropped to 10.84%, with month-on-month prices actually declining 0.36% as tomato, garri, and grain costs fell. The monetary policy rate remains at a punishing 27%, but disinflation creates space for eventual easing.

Currency markets reflected the improved sentiment. The naira traded at ₦1,410.59 per dollar on January 27, strengthening 3.08% over the past month. The parallel market rate of ₦1,475-1,485 represents a narrowing premium—a positive signal for exchange-rate unification. Foreign reserves stand at approximately $45.8 billion, with the CBN targeting $51 billion by year-end.

Yet the IEA’s January 25 assessment was sobering. Nigeria’s sustainable oil production capacity of 1.42 million bpd means the country has no buffer to capitalize on price spikes or geopolitical disruptions—unlike Saudi Arabia, which maintains 2.4 million bpd of spare capacity. The 2026 budget assumption of 1.84 million bpd looks increasingly fantastical. Decades of underinvestment, pipeline sabotage, and operational inefficiency have hollowed out Africa’s largest oil industry.

Banking recapitalization on track

The CBN’s March 31, 2026 recapitalization deadline looms, but the banking sector appears prepared. At least 20-22 banks have met requirements, with Access Bank (₦602.8 billion) and Zenith Bank (₦614 billion) exceeding the ₦500 billion threshold for international licenses. The Unity Bank-Providus merger is in final stages, promising to create a top-ten lender. The Nigerian Exchange’s All-Share Index stood at 165,518 points on January 26—up 58.51% year-on-year—though a 870-point single-day drop on January 23 signaled vulnerability to profit-taking.

Security and defence

Bandits, ransom demands, and an ambush

The security situation in Nigeria’s northwest remained dire. On January 21, bandits ambushed security forces in Zamfara State, killing five soldiers and one police officer—a reminder of the lethal risks facing troops operating in the region. The same day, military operations rescued 62 hostages from a bandit hideout in Zamfara, with two militants killed near the Kebbi-Sokoto border.

The week’s dominant security story, however, centered on the aftermath of the January 17-18 mass abduction from three churches in Kurmin Wali village, Kaduna State. Casualty figures remain contested—the Christian Association of Nigeria cites 172-177 worshippers kidnapped; Amnesty International says 166—but the bandits’ ransom demand is clear: ₦250 million (approximately $175,000) and 20 motorcycles, with captors claiming they lost 17 bikes to recent military operations. Security forces have reportedly identified the hostages’ location but fear airstrikes would kill human shields.

Additional incidents punctuated the week. On January 26, bandits attacked Chibauna community in Katsina State, killing two and abducting over 50 women. In Kaduna’s Kajuru local government, six residents were seized from their homes. A police inspector died in an ambush at Budo Masalasi border post in Oyo State—unusual violence in the normally calmer southwest. Yet there were also gains: on January 26, troops rescued 11 kidnap victims held since October along the Kaduna-Abuja expressway, using long-range CCTV surveillance to intercept their captors.

U.S. security cooperation deepens

The U.S.-Nigeria Working Group convened in Abuja on January 22—the first formal session since Nigeria’s designation as a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom violations. Led by National Security Advisor Nuhu Ribadu and U.S. Under Secretary Allison Hooker, discussions focused on reducing violence against vulnerable groups, particularly Christians. Nigeria outlined its reallocation of security resources toward the volatile North Central region.

The meeting institutionalizes a bilateral security relationship that intensified dramatically in December 2025, when U.S. forces conducted joint operations against the Lakurawa militant group in Sokoto State. AFRICOM’s deputy commander, Lieutenant General John Brennan, confirmed on January 26 that the U.S. is becoming “more aggressive” in targeting Islamic State-linked threats in Nigeria. The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act allocates $413 million for military operations in Nigeria and West Africa.

Society and culture

Nollywood’s box-office revolution

Funke Akindele’s “Behind the Scenes” crossed ₦2.4 billion in box-office receipts this week, earning congratulations from the Nigeria Film Corporation on January 26. The milestone makes it the highest-grossing Nollywood film ever across Africa, the UK, and Ireland—and the first to breach the ₦2 billion threshold on the continent. Its Boxing Day opening of ₦129.5 million set a single-day record. Akindele, who directed, wrote, and produced, is now West Africa’s most commercially successful filmmaker. The film’s theme—“black tax,” or the financial burden successful Nigerians face from extended families—resonated with audiences navigating the country’s economic squeeze.

Meanwhile, colleague Toyin Abraham’s directorial debut “Oversabi Aunty” crossed ₦1 billion on January 26, becoming the fourth-highest-grossing Nollywood film ever. The industry’s commercial maturation continues at pace.

Labour unrest paralyzes Abuja

Federal Capital Territory workers, backed by the Nigeria Labour Congress, picketed the National Industrial Court on January 26 as their indefinite strike—which began January 19—escalated. Placards demanded the removal of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, with slogans including “Abuja no be Rivers” (a reference to Wike’s controversial tenure as Rivers State governor). The Nigeria Union of Teachers directed all FCT primary and secondary school teachers to join the strike, disrupting education for thousands.

Grievances include five months of unpaid wage awards, outstanding promotion arrears, and non-remittance of pension contributions. NLC President Joe Ajaero declared “full support” on January 24, framing the dispute as resistance to “neoliberal attacks” and “administrative impunity.” Separately, the TUC and NLC issued a 14-day ultimatum on January 23 threatening nationwide health-sector action unless a 2021 salary review is implemented.

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

The grid collapses—again

At approximately 1:00 PM on Friday, January 23, Nigeria’s national electricity grid collapsed for the first time in 2026. Generation plummeted from roughly 4,500 MW to zero as transmission lines tripped and generating units disconnected across the system. All eleven distribution companies recorded zero load allocation—a cascade failure affecting over 200 million people. The collapse was the latest in a series that saw at least 16 grid failures between 2024 and 2025.

The Rural Electrification Agency offered a partial response, announcing on January 21 that 28 new mini-grids would be commissioned in Q1 2026, with Nigeria potentially surpassing 1,000 mini-grids this year. But distributed generation cannot substitute for a functioning national grid. The 2026 budget allocates ₦1.1 trillion for the power sector, with emphasis shifting toward community-level electrification.

Dangote keeps the lights on—and pumps running

The Dangote Refinery continues operating at near-full capacity, producing 50 million litres of petrol daily and maintaining sufficient stock for over 20 days of national consumption. Managing Director David Bird declared that “Nigeria has gone from fuel scarcity to fuel abundance.” The refinery’s 24-hour loading operations, launched January 15, have proven critical to national fuel supply. Plans to list 10% of the $20 billion facility on the Nigerian Exchange remain on track for 2026.

Digital economy advances

Communications Minister Bosun Tijani on January 27 directed the Nigerian Communications Commission to implement instant penalties for telecoms operators experiencing network failures within 90 days.

Amazon’s Kuiper satellite internet service received a Nigerian license on January 26, positioning it to serve enterprise and underserved markets. PayPal’s return to Nigeria through a partnership with Paga—announced January 27—marks the payment giant’s first presence in the country in roughly two decades.

Infrastructure finance company InfraCredit announced plans on January 26 to triple its naira guarantees to approximately ₦1 trillion ($703 million) over four years, potentially unlocking significant infrastructure investment.

International relations

Nigeria’s Davos debut and Turkey pivot

Nigeria established its first-ever official National House at the World Economic Forum in Davos, running through January 23. Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar outlined foreign policy priorities—security, multilateralism, strategic autonomy—while Finance Minister Wale Edun pitched the reform agenda to investors. The pavilion focused on solid minerals, climate investment, digital trade, and the creative economy.

President Tinubu arrived in Ankara on January 27 for a state visit to Turkey, received by Education Minister Yusuf Tekin. Discussions will cover trade, defense cooperation, and infrastructure—part of Nigeria’s broader effort to diversify partnerships beyond traditional Western and Chinese relationships. The visit comes as Nigeria deepens ties with both Washington and Beijing: 2026 marks the 55th anniversary of China-Nigeria diplomatic relations, with Chinese officials emphasizing the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” elevated during Tinubu’s September 2024 state visit.

ECOWAS digital transformation dialogue

The Economic Community of West African States convened a three-day consultation on January 26 in Lagos focused on “ECOWAS Vision 2050” and digital transformation. Director of Cabinet Abdou Kolley described the region as standing “at a defining crossroads.” Nigeria continues its leadership role in the bloc—contributing troops to the ECOWAS Standby Force that responded to Benin’s November 2025 coup attempt and championing the AfCFTA Protocol on Digital Trade alongside Kenya and South Africa.

The week ahead

President Tinubu’s state visit to Türkiye concludes January 28 after signing nine bilateral agreements targeting $5 billion in trade, while back in Abuja Vice President Shettima launches a women and youth empowerment fund the same day.

The Debt Management Office settles an oversubscribed bond auction January 28, allotting ₦1.54 trillion against a ₦900 billion offer.

The National Assembly convenes throughout the week to defend the ₦58.18 trillion budget, consider Electoral Act amendments, and review constitutional alteration bills—with 69 pending plus 278 local government creation requests.

The courts take centre stage with former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello’s ₦110.4 billion money laundering trial resuming January 29-30 at Federal High Court Abuja, while former Kano Governor Abdullahi Ganduje appears February 3 for bribery case motions. Ex-Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke’s UK corruption trial continues in London throughout the week.

In entertainment, “Alive Till Dawn”—Nigeria’s first major zombie thriller—premieres in cinemas January 30, while Netflix launches Anikulapo Season 2 the same day.

Nigeria’s premier energy gathering, the Nigeria International Energy Summit, opens February 2-5 at Abuja’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu Conference Centre, drawing African heads of state including Gambia’s Adama Barrow and Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang. NNPC’s CEO headlines discussions on energy security before an expected 3,000 delegates.

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As Vice-President Shettima inaugurated the country’s first World Economic Forum pavilion in Davos, armed gangs abducted 163 church worshippers in Kaduna—a crisis state officials initially denied. Yet beneath the dissonance lie genuine economic gains: inflation fell to 15.15%, its lowest since 2020; banks raced toward recapitalization targets; the stock market surged 44%; and a historic agreement ended sixteen years of deadlock with university lecturers. The central question remains whether reform momentum can overcome chronic institutional weakness—or whether the gap between investor presentations and citizen protection will prove politically unsustainable.

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Table of contents

Politics and governance

• Defections signal APC’s tightening grip

• Rivers State’s byzantine power struggle

• Senate receives 68 ambassadorial nominees

Economy and business

• Inflation’s descent anchors optimism

• The stock market’s remarkable run

• Banks race toward recapitalization

• Naira stability provides breathing room

Security and defence

• Kaduna church kidnapping tests government credibility

• Northeast operations intensify

• Kogi claims 200 bandits killed

• U.S. cooperation deepens despite tensions

Society and culture

• University agreement ends sixteen years of deadlock

• Super Eagles claim bronze with style

• FCT workers strike over broken promises

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

• Paystack’s banking ambitions

• SEC doubles crypto capital requirements

• Lagos-Calabar highway reaches 70% completion

• Power sector’s stubborn arithmetic

International relations

• Nigeria House debuts at Davos

• U.S. relations stabilize after airstrikes

• ECOWAS leadership tested and validated

The week ahead

Politics and governance

Defections signal APC’s tightening grip

The ruling All Progressives Congress continued its consolidation campaign with a symbolically potent acquisition: Abubakar Atiku Abubakar, son of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar—the man who lost three presidential bids to the APC—defected on January 15 at the National Assembly in Abuja. The younger Atiku directed his Haske Organisation’s networks across the Northeast to support President Tinubu’s 2027 re-election, a blow to his father’s remaining presidential ambitions.

The APC now commands 28 of 36 governorships, up from 21 after the 2023 elections. The opposition PDP has hemorrhaged to just four governors. The African Democratic Congress has emerged as the umbrella for a potential Atiku-Peter Obi alliance, with Atiku using social media on January 20 to urge supporters to cease attacking the Labour Party leader—a tacit acknowledgment that opposition unity remains Nigeria’s only viable counterweight.

Rivers State’s byzantine power struggle

The impeachment proceedings against Governor Siminalayi Fubara—now in their third iteration—remained suspended as multiple interventions competed for influence. The Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum dispatched a seven-member committee led by former Attorney-General Kanu Agabi, which shuttled between FCT Minister Nyesom Wike in Abuja and Governor Fubara in Port Harcourt.

The crisis distills a peculiarly Nigerian power dynamic: Wike, the former Rivers governor who delivered his state to Tinubu in 2023, appears determined to demonstrate that governors serve at the pleasure of their political godfathers. A Rivers High Court issued an interim order restraining the Chief Judge from constituting an impeachment panel, buying Fubara time. The Ijaw Youth Council, representing the state’s dominant ethnic group, announced 50,000 voters had transferred registration to Rivers ahead of 2027—a show of demographic force.

Senate receives 68 ambassadorial nominees

President Tinubu submitted a sweeping ambassadorial list on January 16, including former INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu, ex-governors Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi and Okezie Ikpeazu, former Chief of Naval Staff Ibok-Ete Ibas, and the divisive Femi Fani-Kayode. The Senate Foreign Affairs Committee has one week to complete screening. Expected postings include China, India, the UAE, and multilateral bodies.

Economy and business

Inflation’s descent anchors optimism

Nigeria’s headline inflation fell to 15.15% in December 2025, down from a peak of 24.48% in January 2025, marking the lowest reading since November 2020. More striking was the monthly food inflation figure: -0.36%, a rare deflation reflecting harvest flows and the Dangote Refinery’s impact on transport costs. The Central Bank projects average inflation of 12.94% for 2026—ambitious, but no longer fantastical.

International institutions have upgraded their forecasts accordingly. The IMF raised its 2026 growth projection to 4.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from October. The World Bank concurred. Finance Minister Wale Edun went further, targeting 4.68% growth—which would mark Nigeria’s fastest expansion in over a decade.

The stock market’s remarkable run

The Nigerian Exchange has become one of the world’s best-performing markets. Total market capitalization reached ₦217.7 trillion ($153 billion) by January 16, a 44.3% gain since December 31, 2025. Equities alone surged 67.2%. Seven banks have crossed the ₦1 trillion market capitalization threshold, reflecting investor confidence in the recapitalization exercise.

Weekly trading volume hit 4.6 billion shares worth ₦130.6 billion—up from 4.2 billion shares the previous week. Financial services dominated, accounting for 68% of turnover volume. The bull run reflects both genuine reform dividends and liquidity seeking refuge from naira volatility.

Banks race toward recapitalization

With the March 31, 2026 deadline looming, 20-22 of 34 banks have met new capital requirements—up from just eight in mid-2025. The thresholds are substantial: ₦500 billion ($350 million) for international licenses, ₦200 billion for national operations. Access, Zenith, GTBank, UBA, First Bank, and Fidelity have cleared the international bar. Fidelity raised ₦259 billion in December alone.

Three major mergers are expected before deadline. Unity Bank and Providus Bank are in final integration stages, set to create a top-10 lender. Nova Bank opted to downgrade to a regional license rather than dilute existing shareholders—a strategic niche play.

Naira stability provides breathing room

The naira traded in a narrow band of ₦1,415-1,433 against the dollar through the week, with the official rate closing around ₦1,420. The parallel market premium narrowed to ₦65-75—modest by historical standards. Foreign reserves stood at $45.4-45.8 billion, with CBN projecting a breach of $50 billion in Q1 2026.

The current account surplus reached $16.94 billion in 2025, with projections of $18.81 billion for 2026. For a country that faced balance-of-payments crisis as recently as 2023, these figures represent a genuine turnaround.

Security and defence

Kaduna church kidnapping tests government credibility

On Sunday, January 19, armed men attacked three churches simultaneously in Kurmin Wali, Kajuru Local Government Area, abducting worshippers during services. The Christian Association of Nigeria confirmed 163 people remained in captivity after nine escaped. Local chief Wali told AFP the figure was 166 from 177 initially taken.

The government’s response was jarring. State Police Commissioner Muhammad Rabiu claimed there was “no information about any attack or kidnapping.” The Internal Security Commissioner dismissed reports as “totally false.” Chief Wali’s response captured citizen frustration: “It is only politicians that are denying the kidnapping of our people.”

The incident occurred in Kajuru district, a known hotspot where ransom-driven kidnapping has become industrialized. SBM Intelligence estimates the kidnapping industry extracted approximately $1.66 million in ransoms between July 2024 and June 2025—likely a significant undercount.

Northeast operations intensify

Nigerian forces repelled coordinated attacks on January 16 in Adamawa and Borno States. At Azir Forward Operating Base, a multi-directional ISWAP assault lasted over an hour, with RPG fire damaging vehicles and surveillance equipment. Nigerian Air Force precision strikes “neutralized additional scores of terrorists” during pursuit operations.

A day earlier, NAF targeted approximately 40 terrorists on ten canoes planning attacks on the Baga axis—a reminder that insurgents retain waterborne mobility across Lake Chad. Intelligence reports indicate ISWAP has acquired roughly 35 new drones transported through Lake Chad, with plans for coordinated aerial attacks on Nigerian positions.

The week’s most significant Northeast development was intra-insurgent violence. ISWAP and Boko Haram factions clashed repeatedly in Sambisa Forest and the Mandara Mountains between January 3-8, with dozens killed and Boko Haram families displaced. Such internecine conflict provides tactical relief but does nothing to address the underlying governance vacuum.

Kogi claims 200 bandits killed

Kogi State announced a major anti-banditry offensive beginning January 11, claiming over 200 bandits killed across dense forest corridors. Helicopter footage showed flames from settlements in forested areas. Security analyst Bashir Galma, a retired army major, cautioned that casualty figures “might well be exaggerated considering there is no proof”—a reminder that body counts often serve political purposes ahead of elections.

U.S. cooperation deepens despite tensions

Army Chief Lt. Gen. Waidi Shaibu met U.S. Defence Attaché Lt. Col. Semira Moore on January 15, seeking enhanced intelligence support, expedited equipment processing, and joint operational planning. The meeting followed National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu’s Washington delegation, which refuted genocide allegations while securing commitments for humanitarian assistance and technical support.

The diplomatic dance reflects mutual unease after the December 25 U.S. airstrikes in Sokoto State. Foreign Policy reported experts dispute claims that the strikes killed ISIS-linked Lakurawa fighters—estimated at just 200 members with contested Islamic State connections.

Society and culture

University agreement ends sixteen years of deadlock

The Federal Government and Academic Staff Union of Universities signed a landmark agreement on January 14, concluding negotiations that began in 2009. The deal grants a 40% salary increase through a Consolidated Academic Tools Allowance, with professors receiving an additional ₦140,000 monthly. Research funding will receive at least 1% of GDP through a new National Research Council.

Nigerian students have lost nearly four academic years cumulatively to ASUU strikes since 2009. Education Minister Maruf Alausa called the agreement “a turning point.” Implementation monitoring will determine whether this rhetoric translates into sustained stability.

Super Eagles claim bronze with style

Nigeria defeated Egypt 4-2 on penalties after a goalless draw on January 17 to secure AFCON bronze—the country’s record-extending ninth third-place finish. Goalkeeper Stanley Nwabali saved penalties from Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush; Ademola Lookman converted the winner.

Coach Eric Chelle’s squad set a Nigerian AFCON record with 14 tournament goals. Legendary captain Segun Odegbami declared: “These Super Eagles have awakened my once-waning spirit.” The team’s attacking verve provided a unifying national narrative amid the week’s darker developments.

FCT workers strike over broken promises

Thousands of Federal Capital Territory workers began an indefinite strike on January 19 over the government’s failure to implement the FCT Civil Service Commission Act—signed into law in 2018 but never operationalized. Workers cited unpaid promotion arrears, stalled career advancement, and a suspicious 77.5% failure rate in 2024 promotion examinations. Government offices across Abuja were locked down.

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

Paystack’s banking ambitions

Stripe-owned Paystack acquired Ladder Microfinance Bank in mid-January, enabling expansion from payments into lending. The new Paystack MFB will offer working capital loans, merchant cash advances, and Banking-as-a-Service products—leveraging transaction data from 300,000 Nigerian businesses for credit underwriting. The acquisition intensifies competition with Moniepoint, OPay, and PalmPay.

Days earlier, Flutterwave completed its acquisition of open banking startup Mono for $25-40 million in stock, deepening its data infrastructure. Nigeria’s fintech landscape is consolidating around vertically integrated players with the capital to navigate tightening regulation.

SEC doubles crypto capital requirements

The Securities and Exchange Commission issued Circular 26-1 on January 16, raising minimum capital for digital asset exchanges to ₦2 billion ($1.4 million)—quadruple the previous requirement. Robo-advisers must now hold ₦100 million (up from ₦10 million). The June 2027 compliance deadline favors well-funded incumbents; only Busha and Quidax currently hold provisional licenses.

Lagos-Calabar highway reaches 70% completion

Works Minister Dave Umahi confirmed that Section 1 of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway—a 47.47km stretch—has reached over 70% completion, with full commissioning targeted for April 2026. The $747 million loan from Deutsche Bank finances this section; total project cost may reach $11-12.5 billion across the 700km route connecting nine coastal states. The road will be tolled by contractor Hitech Construction upon inauguration.

Power sector’s stubborn arithmetic

Nigeria generated 4,826 MW at peak on January 16-17—against installed capacity of 13,000 MW. The World Bank estimates annual economic losses of $29 billion (2% of GDP) from unreliable power. Fewer than 55% of customers are metered. A $750 million World Bank campaign is driving diesel-to-solar transition in rural communities, with 7.8 million Nigerians newly electrified—but grid-scale transformation remains elusive.

International relations

Nigeria House debuts at Davos

Vice-President Shettima inaugurated Nigeria House on January 19—the country’s first sovereign pavilion at the World Economic Forum. The public-private partnership showcased four investment playbooks covering solid minerals, climate-sustainable agriculture, creative industries, and digital economy. “Nigeria is open for business, and more importantly, open for collaboration,” Shettima declared.

The delegation presented compelling numbers: GDP growth approaching 4% in 2025, non-oil sectors comprising 96% of output, inflation halved from 2024 peaks, reserves above $45 billion. Foreign portfolio and direct investment reached nearly $14 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with Q3 FDI surging 700% quarter-on-quarter to $720 million.

U.S. relations stabilize after airstrikes

The Christmas Day U.S. strikes on Sokoto State cast a shadow over bilateral relations. Nigeria’s delegation to Washington—led by NSA Ribadu with the Attorney-General, Defence Chief, and Police Inspector-General—refuted religious persecution claims while securing commitments for enhanced intelligence support and expedited defense equipment processing.

A five-year, $5.1 billion health cooperation agreement signed in January demonstrates the relationship’s depth: $2.1 billion in U.S. grants, $3 billion in Nigerian domestic resource mobilization, covering HIV, TB, malaria, and maternal health through 2030.

ECOWAS leadership tested and validated

Nigeria’s deployment of Air Force jets and troops alongside Sierra Leonean, Ivorian, and Ghanaian forces helped thwart Benin’s late-2025 coup attempt—what the International Crisis Group called “the bloc’s firmest and most successful stance against an unconstitutional power grab since 2017.” The National Assembly approved the deployment at Benin’s request.

ECOWAS approved $2.85 million from the Regional Security Fund for each of five frontline states including Nigeria. Yet the bloc remains weakened by the January 2025 departure of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to form the Alliance of Sahel States.

The week ahead

The World Economic Forum continues through January 23, with Vice-President Shettima’s remaining bilateral meetings potentially yielding immediate FDI announcements or partnership agreements. The finance minister’s sessions on sovereign debt restructuring and the solid minerals sector will be closely watched.

The January 22 resumption of the National Assembly could bring movement on pending legislation, including the controversial tax reform bills that stalled in December. Senate screening of the 68 ambassadorial nominees is expected to begin immediately, with confirmation votes possible before the week ends.

Markets will monitor whether the naira’s stability holds through month-end dollar demand, particularly from manufacturers and importers settling Q4 obligations. Any CBN intervention or guidance on forex policy would be significant.

The Kaduna kidnapping crisis should produce developments within days—either ransom negotiations, rescue operations, or tragically, proof-of-life demands. How the federal government responds after state officials’ denials will test crisis management credibility.

Key wildcards include potential Rivers State High Court rulings on the impeachment proceedings, any ASUU statements on implementation timelines for the January 14 agreement, and whether the FCT workers’ strike expands or resolves quickly. Oil production figures for early January, when released, will indicate whether the 1.54 million bpd combined output from December—which included 1.42 million bpd of crude and 122,000 bpd of condensates—can begin to climb toward the ambitious 1.84 million bpd benchmark set in the 2026 budget.

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Nigeria bet big on itself this week—and the wager is showing early promise. As the stock market breached ₦100 trillion for the first time and inflation touched five-year lows, President Bola Tinubu flew to Abu Dhabi to court climate investors while his party consolidated control over 24 of 36 states. The Super Eagles thrashed Algeria 2-0 to reach the Africa Cup semi-finals, offering 220 million Nigerians a rare moment of unified joy. Yet beneath the champagne corks and market rallies, familiar shadows lingered: bandits killed 14 in Taraba State, the power grid delivered barely 3,800 megawatts, and Rivers State lawmakers launched yet another impeachment against their governor.

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Table of Contents

Politics & Governance

• The South-East falls into line

• Rivers State’s serial impeachment

• Carbon and AI

Economy & Business

• The ₦100 trillion milestone and what it means

• The naira’s curious stability

• Banks race to recapitalise

Security & Defence

• Bandits, borders, and American assistance

• Farmer-herder violence claims 14 lives

Society & Culture

• Super Eagles soar, bonuses or not

• AFRIMA celebrates Nigerian dominance

• Nollywood’s billion-naira milestone

Technology, Infrastructure & Innovation

• Nigeria’s first defense-tech champion

• Power grid struggles continue

International Relations

• Abu Dhabi and Davos frame Nigeria’s pitch

• US-Nigeria security partnership deepens

• Turkey courts Nigerian business

The Week Ahead

• AFCON semi-final: Morocco awaits

• WEF Davos: Nigeria House opens

• Healthcare strike ruling

• Economic data watch

Politics & Governance

The South-East falls into line

The most consequential political development of the week occurred on January 12 in Enugu, where the South-East’s APC leadership—led by Governors Hope Uzodimma (Imo) and Francis Nwifuru (Ebonyi), alongside the strategically aligned Peter Mbah (Enugu)—formally endorsed President Tinubu as the party’s sole candidate for 2027. The endorsement, delivered at a meeting of the “Izu Umunna” stakeholders’ forum, came a full 20 months before the next presidential ballot. “Politics is pay as you earn,” declared Governor Uzodimma with characteristic bluntness.

The early commitment reflects shrewd political calculation. The South-East contributed just 6% of APC’s votes in 2023, compared with 34-54% from other geopolitical zones. But the region’s political landscape has transformed dramatically: the APC now controls three of five South-East states, up from none before 2023, and its Senate seats in the zone have grown from six to eight. Former Senate Presidents Pius Anyim and Ken Nnamani attended the Enugu gathering—a signal that the Igbo political establishment is pivoting toward the ruling party. Whether this represents pragmatic accommodation or democratic erosion depends on one’s vantage point.

Rivers State’s serial impeachment

The darker side of APC consolidation emerged in Port Harcourt where Speaker Martins Amaewhule announced on January 8 that 26 of 32 lawmakers had signed an impeachment notice against Governor Siminalayi Fubara. The charges—refusing to present a 2026 appropriation bill and spending without legislative approval—echo complaints lodged in previous attempts. “Rivers has never had it this bad,” declared Amaewhule, though critics noted the crisis stems from Fubara’s feud with his predecessor Nyesom Wike, now the powerful FCT Minister and key Tinubu ally.

This marks the third major legislative attempt to oust Fubara since his 2023 inauguration. Two assembly members—Minority Leader Sylvanus Nwankwo and Hon. Peter Abbey—broke ranks on January 12 to plead for dialogue, but the proceedings continue. The Rivers saga illustrates how Nigeria’s governing party enforces discipline: governors who resist absorption face relentless institutional pressure.

Carbon and AI

President Tinubu spent January 11-13 in Abu Dhabi for the 2026 Sustainability Week, where he approved the Carbon Market Framework that officials say could attract $3.8 billion annually in climate investments. The National Council on Climate Change has already received 3,000-4,000 project applications since October 2025. Whether Nigeria’s notoriously weak regulatory institutions can manage this influx remains an open question.

Nigeria is poised to pass the National Digital Economy and E-Governance Bill, potentially making it among the first African nations to regulate artificial intelligence. The legislation would grant regulators new powers over algorithms and digital platforms—a significant step for a country whose tech ecosystem has grown faster than its governance frameworks.

Economy & Business

The ₦100 trillion milestone and what it means

When the Nigerian Exchange’s market capitalisation crossed ₦100 trillion on January 5, 2026, President Tinubu hailed the “birth of a new economic reality.” The All-Share Index delivered a 51.19% return in 2025, following 37.65% in 2024—making Nigerian equities among the world’s best performers for two consecutive years. As of January 9, the market had registered 19 consecutive bullish sessions.

The rally reflects genuine macroeconomic improvement, though the data requires nuance. Headline inflation decelerated to 14.45% in November 2025—the lowest since October 2020. However, this dramatic drop from 34.8% in late 2024 was largely driven by a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than pure price moderation. Foreign reserves reached $45.62 billion by January 6, while foreign direct investment surged to $720 million in Q3 2025, an eightfold increase from the previous quarter. Non-oil exports also grew 48% to ₦9.2 trillion.

Yet caution is warranted. The National Bureau of Statistics warned on January 12 that December 2025 inflation figures—due January 15—will show an “artificially spiked” rate of 31.2% due to base effect adjustments following the rebasing. The bureau plans to publish dual readings for transparency to help markets distinguish between genuine economic recovery and statistical artifacts.

The naira’s curious stability

The naira traded between ₦1,415-1,441 to the dollar in the official market during the week, with the parallel market spread narrowing to around ₦70-80—a significant improvement from the ₦200+ gaps of 2024. On January 7, the naira hit ₦1,418.26, representing an 8.2% year-on-year appreciation. PwC projects the currency will stabilize in the ₦1,440-1,500 range for 2026, while optimistic analysts at CardinalStone suggest it could strengthen to ₦1,350-1,450. The Central Bank maintained its policy rate at 27% following November’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, but analysts expect 300-400 basis points of cuts during 2026 as inflation moderates.

In a significant shift, new cash handling rules effective January 1, 2026 increased withdrawal limits to better reflect current economic realities and inflation. Weekly limits now allow for ₦500,000 for individuals (up from ₦100,000) and ₦5 million for corporates (up from ₦500,000). The ATM daily limit is set at ₦100,000, with these higher caps intended to provide relief to depositors while maintaining the push toward a digital financial system.

Banks race to recapitalise

With the March 31, 2026 deadline for bank recapitalisation approaching, 22 of 34 banks have now met the new capital requirements, up from just eight in mid-2025. International banks must reach ₦500 billion in capital and national banks ₦200 billion. The Unity Bank and Providus Bank merger is in its final stages, supported by a ₦700 billion CBN lifeline to facilitate the transition into the new Providus-Unity Bank (PUB). Analysts at DataPro expect at least three more mergers before the deadline. The consolidation is reshaping Nigeria’s financial sector—and creating opportunities for stronger players to absorb weaker competitors.

Security & Defence

Bandits, borders, and American assistance

The security situation in northwest Nigeria remains grim but showed flickers of coordination. On January 10-11, the Nigerian Army’s 8th Division conducted a tactical ambush in the Sabon Birni corridor, neutralizing 11 bandits and preventing a planned strike on Tara village. This followed a period of increased cross-border intelligence sharing with Nigerien forces. The following day, police in Kaduna foiled a planned attack on Idisu village by a group led by notorious kingpin Kachalla Sanusi Bajira, killing two bandits and recovering AK-47 rifles.

On January 12, troops in Borno State eliminated eight terrorists during clearance operations, while military forces rescued 18 passengers from a hijacked boat on Nigeria-Cameroon coastal waterways. The Army’s 2025 statistics, released during the week, recorded 4,375 terrorist arrests, 2,336 civilian rescues, and 503 illegal refinery destructions.

The most significant development came on January 13, when US Africa Command announced the delivery of “critical military supplies” to Nigeria—a visible sign of strengthening security cooperation following the controversial December 25 joint US-Nigerian strikes against Islamic State militants in Sokoto. The Pentagon operation killed key Lakurawa commanders but also sparked debate about sovereignty and religious targeting. Remnants of the group are reportedly fleeing toward Niger and Chad.

Farmer-herder violence claims 14 lives

The week’s deadliest incident occurred in Taraba State on January 9, when suspected Fulani herders killed 14 people in coordinated attacks on Tor-Damsa in Donga local government area. Victims included the village head of Anchough-Shagu and a local councilor. The killings apparently followed a dispute over a destroyed cassava farm. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps disclosed that Oyo State alone records approximately 100 farmer-herder clashes monthly, concentrated in the Oluyole, Oke-Ogun, and Ibarapa areas.

Society & Culture

Super Eagles soar, bonuses or not

Nigeria’s 2-0 quarter-final demolition of Algeria on January 10 in Marrakesh was the week’s most unifying moment. Victor Osimhen—now with 35 international goals and closing on Rashidi Yekini’s all-time record of 37—opened scoring in the 47th minute; debutant Akor Adams added the second ten minutes later. The Super Eagles have scored 14 goals in five tournament matches, the competition’s most prolific attack.

The victory came despite drama: players had threatened to boycott the match over unpaid bonuses from earlier rounds. The Nigeria Football Federation reported the Central Bank was “processing” the payments. Post-match, CAF opened an investigation into an altercation between players and officials from both teams. The semi-final against host nation Morocco on January 14 promises even higher stakes—and BUA Group Chairman Abdul Samad Rabiu has offered $500,000 if Nigeria prevails.

AFRIMA celebrates Nigerian dominance

The 9th All Africa Music Awards on January 11 at Lagos’s Eko Convention Centre showcased Nigeria’s cultural soft power. Rema claimed Artist of the Year among his three awards; Burna Boy won Album of the Year for “No Sign of Weakness”; and Shallipopi took Song of the Year for “Laho.” Nigerian artists dominated the ceremony, which was broadcast across 84 countries in partnership with the African Union Commission.

Nollywood’s billion-naira milestone

Funke Akindele’s “Behind the Scenes” became the first Nollywood film to gross ₦2 billion in cinema sales, reaching the milestone on January 13—barely a month after its December 12 release. FilmOne declared Akindele “Africa’s most commercially successful filmmaker” and the first to rank number one at the African box office for three consecutive years. The achievement underscores Nollywood’s growing commercial sophistication—and its potential as an export industry.

Technology, Infrastructure & Innovation

Nigeria’s first defense-tech champion

The week’s most intriguing startup story emerged on January 12: Terra Industries, founded by 22-year-old Nigerian entrepreneur Nathan Nwachuku, raised $11.75 million in seed funding led by 8VC—the firm of Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale. The Abuja-based company builds autonomous defense systems including long-range surveillance drones and ground robotics, with a team including former Nigerian military engineers. The goal: create Africa’s first homegrown “defense prime” rather than relying on foreign contractors. In a country plagued by insecurity, indigenous defense manufacturing may be as valuable as any fintech unicorn.

Power grid struggles continue

Despite budget allocations of ₦1.096 trillion for electricity capital projects in 2026, the grid delivered just 3,810 megawatts on January 11—a sharp 12% decline from the 4,330 MW recorded on January 5. A December 29 grid collapse continues to affect recovery. The Rural Electrification Agency received the largest share of power-sector funding at ₦502.21 billion, reflecting the government’s emphasis on off-grid solutions.

International Relations

Abu Dhabi and Davos frame Nigeria’s pitch

President Tinubu’s Abu Dhabi visit positioned Nigeria as serious about climate finance and sustainable development. The approved Carbon Market Framework signals intent to capture global green investment flows—though implementation will test Nigeria’s institutional capacity. Before arriving in the UAE, Tinubu held discussions with Presidents Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Emmanuel Macron of France.

Looking ahead, the Federal Government has established Nigeria House Davos for the first time at the World Economic Forum (January 19-23). The public-private initiative will showcase five thematic areas: solid minerals, agriculture, climate investment, digital trade, and the creative economy. It represents Nigeria’s most ambitious Davos presence yet—a clear signal that attracting foreign investment remains the administration’s paramount objective.

US-Nigeria security partnership deepens

The January 13 US military supply delivery formalized what the December 25 strikes made obvious: Washington sees Nigeria as a critical counter-terrorism partner. The relationship has navigated tensions—the US designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom in 2025, and new visa restrictions took effect January 1. But a $5.1 billion bilateral health cooperation MoU ($2.1 billion from the US, $3 billion from Nigeria) suggests the partnership has strategic depth beyond security.

Turkey courts Nigerian business

Interior Minister Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo met Turkish Ambassador Mehmet Poroy on January 13 to discuss visa facilitation and business mobility. Turkey requested inclusion in Nigeria’s e-visa system and highlighted its 12 weekly flights to Nigeria. The engagement reflects Nigeria’s diversifying diplomatic portfolio—and Turkish interest in Africa’s largest market.

The Week Ahead

AFCON semi-final: Morocco awaits

The Super Eagles face host nation Morocco at Rabat’s Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium on Wednesday, January 14 at 9:00 PM West African Time. Morocco—reaching their first AFCON semi-final in 22 years—will have approximately 70,000 home supporters. Captain Wilfred Ndidi is suspended. A victory would send Nigeria to Sunday’s final against Senegal or Egypt; defeat means a third-place playoff on January 17.

WEF Davos: Nigeria House opens

January 19-23 will see Nigeria’s first official presence on the Davos Promenade. High-level roundtables targeting foreign investors are scheduled across all five days, with thematic programming on minerals, agriculture, climate, digital trade, and creative industries.

Healthcare strike ruling

The National Industrial Court will rule on January 21 regarding resident doctors’ suspended strike action. An interim order currently bars industrial action, but disputes over professional allowances and salary arrears remain unresolved. A ruling favoring the doctors could disrupt public hospital services nationwide.

Economic data watch

December 2025 inflation figures are due January 15, with the NBS flagging an expected methodological jump to 31.2%—alongside clarifying dual-track data for transparency. Markets will parse whether this reflects genuine price pressures or statistical noise.

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The week of January 7-13 offered a concentrated portrait of Nigeria’s 2026 trajectory: political consolidation proceeding rapidly, economic indicators improving but fragile, security threats persistent but contained, and cultural achievements rallying national pride. President Tinubu has bet everything on this convergence delivering results before 2027. The next twelve months will reveal whether Nigeria’s various gambles pay off—or whether its contradictions prove too heavy to bear.

When American Tomahawk missiles struck ISIS camps in northwestern Nigeria on Christmas Day, the most remarkable aspect was how unremarkable the response proved. President Bola Tinubu’s government hailed the strikes as partnership; his critics grumbled about sovereignty. By week’s end, the conversation had moved on—even as bandits massacred 50 villagers in Niger State and the ruling party absorbed yet another opposition governor. Meanwhile, in Lagos, the stock market crossed ₦100 trillion for the first time. Nigeria entered 2026 the way it spent much of 2025: a country simultaneously booming and burning, reforming its economy while outsourcing its security, consolidating political power while ceding military authority.

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Politics and governance

The APC’s march toward dominance continues

Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau State formally joined the APC on January 2nd, receiving his membership card at Government House in Jos after submitting his resignation from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on December 29th. His defection—citing the need for “better alignment with federal government policies”—brought all six North-Central states under APC governors and reduced the PDP to a rump of perhaps four or five states, down from twelve at the start of 2023.

The pattern is now familiar. Governors Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), and Agbu Kefas (Taraba) have all abandoned the PDP this political season. Kano’s Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf appears poised to leave the New Nigeria People’s Party next. The APC now controls approximately 30 of 36 states—a dominance unseen since the military era. Opposition figures warn of a slide toward one-party rule; the government counters that defectors are simply following their constituents’ wishes.

Rivers State remains the exception that tests the rule

The Wike-Fubara feud—Nigeria’s most combustible intra-party conflict—intensified. FCT Minister Nyesom Wike declared Governor Fubara would receive “no second chance” during a visit to his Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni stronghold on January 2nd. By January 5th, Rivers Deputy Governor Ngozi Odu and Secretary to the State Government Benibo Anabraba had defected to the APC. Wike then declared Rivers a political “no-go area” for the APC national leadership, warning party secretary Ajibola Basiru: “Your hand will burn.”

The spectacle reveals the limits of the defection wave. Governors may switch jerseys, but local power brokers retain influence. Wike’s effective control of Rivers’ political machinery—despite holding federal office—demonstrates that patronage networks survive party labels. For Tinubu, managing these rivalries while maintaining APC cohesion before 2027 presents a delicate challenge.

Tax reforms arrive amid controversy

Nigeria’s most ambitious tax overhaul in decades took effect on January 1st. The Nigeria Tax Act and Nigeria Tax Administration Act promise relief for 98% of workers from Pay-As-You-Earn obligations and exempt 97% of small businesses from corporate income tax, VAT, and withholding tax. The reforms replace the Federal Inland Revenue Service with a new Nigeria Revenue Service.

Yet controversy shadows the implementation. Representative Abdulsamad Dasuki alleged discrepancies between laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions, prompting a House investigation. Civil society groups demanded publication of budget estimates and unconditional presidential commitment to constitutional spending limits. Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, dismissed concerns, noting the reforms were “designed to provide relief for the majority of Nigerians.”

Economy and business

The naira stabilises as inflation retreats

The macroeconomic picture, while hardly rosy, shows unmistakable improvement. Inflation fell to 14.45% in November 2025—the eighth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since October 2020. The naira traded at ₦1,431.47 per dollar on January 6th, having strengthened roughly 7% from its historic low of ₦1,717.50 in late 2024. Foreign reserves reached $45.4 billion by December 29th, a seven-year high.

These figures vindicate the Central Bank’s hawkish stance under Governor Olayemi Cardoso. The 27% monetary policy rate and 45% cash reserve ratio have been punishing for businesses but effective against inflation. The CBN’s 2026 outlook projects inflation averaging 12.94%, reserves climbing to $51.04 billion, and GDP growth of 4.49%. Whether the bank eases policy before the 2027 election—introducing stimulus that could reignite price pressures—remains the critical monetary question.

Stock market crosses historic threshold

The Nigerian Exchange celebrated a milestone on January 5th when market capitalisation exceeded ₦100 trillion for the first time, settling at ₦101.8 trillion. The All-Share Index returned 51.19% in 2025, the strongest performance in nearly two decades. Banking sector recapitalisation—with 16 of 34 commercial banks already meeting new requirements ahead of the March 2026 deadline—has driven much of the activity. A potential listing of the Dangote Refinery could prove the “defining market event” of 2026, according to analysts.

Dangote Refinery maintains momentum

The 650,000 barrel-per-day refinery continued supplying 40-50 million litres of petrol daily despite a planned maintenance turnaround on its gasoline unit. An expansion to 700,000 bpd—which would make it the world’s eighth-largest—proceeds alongside operations. The facility has reduced Nigeria’s petrol imports by over 60% and maintains an ex-gantry price of ₦699 per litre, below the government’s ₦740 target. For a country that historically exported crude oil only to import refined products, the refinery represents perhaps the Tinubu era’s most consequential infrastructure achievement.

Security and defence

American strikes and their aftermath

The most dramatic development of the period occurred before it technically began. On Christmas Day, at President Trump’s direction, US Africa Command launched 12-plus Tomahawk missiles from the USS Paul Ignatius in the Gulf of Guinea, supplemented by MQ-9 Reaper drone strikes, against ISIS-linked Lakurawa camps in Sokoto State’s Tangaza district. Trump framed the operation as protection for “innocent Christians” targeted by terrorists.

Nigeria’s response was carefully calibrated. Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar called it a “joint operation” having “nothing to do with a particular religion.” Information Minister Mohammed Idris described “successfully conducted precision strike operations.” The government emphasised sovereignty was respected through advance coordination. Northern elites criticised the strikes; Christian leaders welcomed them. Residents of Jabo village, near where debris fell, expressed bewilderment—their predominantly Muslim farming community, they said, has “no known history” of ISIS presence.

Banditry claims 50 lives in Niger State

Any sense that the American strikes might signal a turning point evaporated on January 4th when bandits attacked Kasuwan Daji market in Demo village, Niger State, killing at least 50 people and abducting others. Victims were found with hands bound; market stalls were burned. President Tinubu’s office suggested the attackers may have been terrorists fleeing the Sokoto strikes—a theory that, if accurate, illustrates the “balloon effect” of counterterrorism operations that disperse rather than destroy militant networks.

The attack followed a grim pattern. On New Year’s Eve, assailants killed seven people in Plateau State’s Bum community as residents prepared to welcome 2026. In Katsina State, attacks in Unguwar Naino, Unguwar Daudu, and Malumfashi claimed additional lives despite recent “peace deals” with bandits. A veteran photojournalist was kidnapped in Kaduna on January 5th.

Boko Haram maintains lethal capability

In the northeast, Boko Haram demonstrated continued capacity for violence. An IED attack near Gubio, Borno State, killed nine soldiers from the 145 Damasak Battalion on January 4th-5th. Troops intercepted three suicide bombers on the Guduf-Pulka axis on New Year’s Day, recovering suicide vests and four AK-47 rifles. The Nigerian Air Force claimed 274 precision strikes in 2025, neutralising over 2,351 terrorists—figures that suggest tactical success but strategic stalemate.

Society and culture

Super Eagles advance at AFCON

Nigeria’s sporting fortunes provided rare uplift. The Super Eagles achieved their first perfect group-stage record in 20 AFCON participations, defeating Tunisia, Tanzania, and Uganda (3-1 on December 31st) to advance from Group C. Captain Victor Osimhen declared Nigeria “ready to trample on any team” ahead of the Round of 16 match against Mozambique on January 5th in Fes. The country seeks to end a 13-year drought since its last continental title in 2013.

Education sector breakthrough

Education Minister Tunji Alausa announced the government will formally sign the long-delayed 2009 FGN-ASUU Agreement on January 14th. Key provisions effective January 1st include a 40% salary increase for academic staff and retirement at age 70 for professors. The minister’s observation that strikes have cost some students “almost four academic years” captures the dysfunction that has plagued Nigerian universities. Whether implementation follows remains to be seen.

Nollywood box office strength

Funke Akindele’s “Behind The Scenes” became the highest-grossing Nigerian film of 2025 at ₦1.767 billion in under four weeks, breaking five opening-weekend records including highest single-day gross on Boxing Day (₦129.5 million). The achievement underscores Nollywood’s commercial maturation even as Netflix and other platforms reshape distribution.

Technology, infrastructure and innovation

Flutterwave acquires Mono in rare African exit

Africa’s largest fintech, Flutterwave, acquired Nigerian open banking startup Mono in an all-stock deal valued at $25-40 million on January 5th. Mono had raised approximately $17.5 million from Tiger Global, General Catalyst, and Target Global. The “Plaid for Africa” has powered over 8 million bank account linkages, covering roughly 12% of Nigeria’s banked population. Early investors reportedly realised returns of up to 20x—a rare exit in an ecosystem starved of them.

Nigeria slips in African funding rankings

Despite the Flutterwave-Mono deal, Nigeria dropped to fourth place among African startup funding destinations in 2025, raising $410.1 million compared to Kenya’s $933.6 million leadership. Currency volatility, inflationary pressures, and sparse exit opportunities have pushed investors toward Nigerian companies with global operations rather than domestic-focused plays.

Infrastructure push continues

The 2026 budget allocates ₦3.56 trillion to infrastructure, with major projects including the 164km Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Dual Carriageway (target completion 2026), the 107km Enugu-Onitsha Expressway funded through MTN’s tax credit scheme, and the ambitious $11.17 billion Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway. The World Bank’s $1.6 billion BRIDGE project aims to expand broadband across all 774 local government areas.

International relations

Nigeria asserts regional leadership in Benin

December’s successful military intervention to thwart a coup in Benin Republic—Nigeria’s first foreign intervention since Gambia in 2017—reasserted the country’s regional primacy and ECOWAS’s relevance after the bloc’s failure to stop coups in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Guinea. President Tinubu dispatched fighter jets and ground troops within hours of President Patrice Talon’s request; the coup collapsed within hours with 14-plus arrests.

The intervention carried risks. Those Sahel Alliance states viewed the operation as French-engineered interference, potentially deepening the regional rift. A Nigerian military aircraft’s unscheduled landing in Burkina Faso caused a brief diplomatic incident. Yet for a bloc whose credibility had been shattered by four successful coups in four years, the Benin operation demonstrated that collective security mechanisms could still function—when Nigeria chose to activate them.

US relations enter complex phase

The Christmas strikes coincided with new US visa restrictions effective January 1st, partially suspending B-1/B-2 visitor visas and F/M/J student visas for Nigerian nationals. Nigeria was among 19 countries affected—26 of 39 total restricted nations are African—following its redesignation as a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom violations. Yet a $5.1 billion health cooperation MoU (with $2.1 billion in US grants) signed in late December signals continued engagement. Nigeria’s relationship with the Trump administration will require careful navigation.

ECOWAS implements air transport reforms

A landmark ECOWAS policy took effect January 1st, removing all taxes on air transport and mandating a 25% reduction in passenger and security charges across member states. West Africa ranks as the world’s most expensive region to fly, with 64-70% of ticket prices driven by taxes. Nigeria ranks among the top ten globally. Whether airlines pass savings to consumers or preserve margins remains to be seen.

The week ahead

The coming week presents several inflection points for Nigeria:

January 7-10: The INEC continuous voter registration Phase 2 continues, with 2,572,054 Nigerians having completed registration in Phase 1. The process runs until August 30th, 2026.

January 12: ASUU watch begins as the National Association of Resident Doctors threatens to resume its indefinite strike over unmet demands. Schools in “safe areas” of Niger State are scheduled to reopen.

January 14: The Federal Government is scheduled to sign the 2009 FGN-ASUU Agreement—a ceremony that could mark a breakthrough or another false dawn for Nigerian higher education.

Economic releases: Markets will watch for December inflation data, which could extend the disinflation streak to nine months, and updates on oil production figures as Nigeria targets 1.84 million barrels per day for budget purposes.

Wildcards: Security remains the primary wildcard. The Niger State massacre suggests displaced militants may strike in unexpected locations. The 2027 election cycle is accelerating, which historically correlates with increased political violence. And Nigeria’s complex dance with the Trump administration—simultaneously receiving military strikes and visa restrictions—could shift in unpredictable directions.

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Nigeria begins 2026 with its contradictions fully on display: a stock market at record highs while bandits massacre villagers; a currency stabilising while workers emigrate; a regional leader that requires American missiles to target insurgents in its own northwest. The year ahead will test whether the Tinubu administration’s reforms can translate macroeconomic improvement into security and prosperity that Nigerians actually experience—or whether the gap between Lagos’s gleaming towers and the villages burning in Borgu will only widen.

The final week of 2025 will be remembered as the moment when American firepower arrived on Nigerian soil—and when the contradictions of President Bola Tinubu’s reformist agenda came into sharp relief. As Nigerians marked Christmas, Tomahawk missiles struck ISIS camps in Sokoto State in the country’s northwest, a suicide bomber killed five worshippers in Maiduguri, and a constitutional row erupted over whether tax laws had been secretly altered after parliamentary passage. Yet beneath the drama, Nigeria’s economy continued its improbable stabilisation: inflation fell to 14.45%, foreign reserves hit a seven-year high, and the naira held steady. Africa’s most populous nation enters 2026 battered but not broken, its trajectory as uncertain as ever.

The week’s dominant story—unprecedented US airstrikes coordinated with the Tinubu government—marks a watershed in Nigerian security policy. For decades, Abuja jealously guarded its sovereignty, rebuffing Western offers of military assistance. Now, faced with expanding jihadist violence and the Trump administration’s aggressive framing of a “Christian genocide,” Nigeria chose pragmatism over pride. The implications will reverberate well into 2026.

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Politics and governance

A constitutional crisis over tax reform

What should have been a straightforward implementation of Nigeria’s new tax laws became a constitutional flashpoint. Representative Abdussamad Dasuki of the opposition PDP alleged that four tax reform bills—signed into law earlier in 2025—had been altered between their passage by the National Assembly and their gazetting. The controversy strikes at the heart of legislative authority in Africa’s largest democracy.

The House of Representatives responded by constituting a seven-man ad hoc committee to investigate, while directing the re-gazetting of the affected laws. The Nigerian Bar Association, led by President Afam Osigwe, warned that the allegations “cast doubt on the integrity, transparency and credibility of Nigeria’s lawmaking process.” The House Minority Caucus called for suspension of implementation pending investigation.

President Tinubu was unmoved. In a personally signed statement on December 30, he insisted the new tax laws would take effect on January 1, 2026, as scheduled. “The new tax laws... will continue as planned,” he declared—a characteristic display of the stubbornness that has defined his presidency. The standoff illustrates the tension between Tinubu’s impatience for reform and institutional constraints designed to check executive power.

NNPC’s massive debt write-off

In quieter but equally consequential news, Tinubu approved the cancellation of approximately $5.27 billion in debt owed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The write-off—comprising $1.42 billion in dollar-denominated liabilities and ₦5.57 trillion in naira debt—covers obligations through December 2024, including production-sharing contracts and joint venture royalties. The move is part of Tinubu’s effort to clean up NNPC’s opaque books ahead of planned asset sales, though critics note that a disputed $42 billion under-remittance from 2011-2017 remains unresolved.

Rivers State’s unending political soap opera

The political feud between FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara—both ostensibly allies of President Tinubu—showed no signs of abating. At a media chat in Port Harcourt on December 29, Wike mocked Fubara’s December defection to the ruling APC as arriving “too late” and “without any political structure.” The APC now controls 27 of Nigeria’s 36 governorships, but the Rivers situation demonstrates that party dominance does not guarantee internal cohesion.

Economy and business

Inflation’s retreat and the naira’s stability

Nigeria’s economic trajectory at the end of 2025 signaled a period of aggressive stabilisation. November headline inflation fell to 14.45%—a significant drop from 24.48% in January and the eighth consecutive monthly decline. This trend was mirrored in food inflation, which was reported at 11.08%, a stark mathematical improvement from the 39.93% recorded a year earlier.

However, analysts note that these “plunging” figures were heavily influenced by the Central Bank’s early-2025 rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which updated consumption baskets to more accurately reflect modern spending. Despite this statistical relief, the Central Bank maintained its hawkish stance, holding the policy rate at 27%. By keeping the monetary policy rate high while inflation cooled, Nigeria ended the year with a real interest rate of approximately 12.5%—one of the highest globally—a move designed to lock in foreign investment and prevent a return to the currency volatility of 2024.

The naira closed the year at approximately ₦1,448/$ in the official market, with the parallel market spread narrowing to under 2%—compared to over 60% a year ago. Foreign reserves reached $45.24 billion by December 23, up 7.28% month-on-month and the highest level in nearly seven years. Diaspora remittances surged to $23 billion for the year, a five-year high that reflects both improved formal channels and the economic desperation driving emigration.

Stock market approaches historic milestone

The Nigerian Stock Exchange delivered its strongest performance since 2020, with the All-Share Index returning 49.17% year-to-date. Market capitalisation approached ₦100 trillion—a psychological threshold that would have seemed fantastical during the dark days of 2024. Holiday-shortened trading saw investors add ₦953 billion to portfolios during the week. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise projects GDP growth of 4.0-4.5% in 2026, though analysts caution that pre-election fiscal pressures and persistent insecurity remain significant risks.

Dangote Refinery reshapes the fuel market

The 650,000 barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery continued its transformation of Nigeria’s fuel economy. December saw petrol prices fall significantly, with the refinery’s ex-depot price dropping from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre. NNPC retail outlets sold at ₦785 in Lagos and ₦835 in Abuja—down from ₦820 and ₦915 respectively. Nigeria now boasts the cheapest petrol in West Africa, an ironic achievement for a country that imported virtually all its refined fuel just two years ago. The refinery committed to supplying 50 million litres daily through January, rising to 57 million litres by February.

Security and defence

American firepower targets Nigerian jihadists

The most dramatic development of the week—indeed, of the entire Tinubu presidency—came in the early hours of December 26, when American Tomahawk missiles and Reaper drone munitions struck Islamic State camps in Sokoto State’s Bauni forest. The operation, announced by President Trump on Christmas Day as a “present” to terrorists, represented the first direct US military intervention on Nigerian soil.

Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar confirmed he had spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio before the strikes, while AFRICOM commander General Dagvin Anderson emphasised coordination with Nigerian authorities. Information Minister Mohammed Idris Malagi declared the targets—two ISIS-Sahel Province and affiliated Lakurawa enclaves—“successfully neutralised.” Missile debris fell in Jabo village in Sokoto State and near a hotel in Offa, Kwara State, though no civilian casualties were reported.

The strikes followed months of Trump administration pressure over alleged Christian persecution and Nigeria’s October designation as a “Country of Particular Concern” under US religious freedom law. Nigeria’s government walked a careful line: accepting American help while rejecting the sectarian framing. “This is not about religion,” Tuggar insisted. “It is about Nigerians, innocent civilians, and the wider region.”

Maiduguri bombing signals Boko Haram resilience

Christmas Eve brought tragedy to Maiduguri when a suicide bomber attacked Al-Adum Juma’at Mosque during evening prayers, killing five worshippers and injuring 35. The attack—the first major bombing in the Borno State capital since 2021—demonstrated Boko Haram’s continuing capacity to strike urban areas despite years of military pressure. Vice President Kashim Shettima personally visited victims in hospital, while President Tinubu ordered an immediate intensification of security operations.

Kidnapping persists across the north

The week saw continued kidnapping activity, though also some resolution. The final 130 students abducted from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Niger State on November 21 were released on December 22—described by Bishop Bulus Dauwa Yohanna as “a Christmas gift.” The original mass kidnapping of 303 students represented the largest school abduction in Nigerian history. Meanwhile, Operation WHIRL STROKE troops rescued 24 passengers from kidnappers on the Otukpo-Enugu highway, while a joint security operation foiled an attempted mass abduction in Zamfara State’s Maru metropolis on December 28.

Society and culture

A Christmas of contrasts

The Christian Association of Nigeria’s president, Archbishop Daniel Okoh, met President Tinubu on December 27 and offered a cautiously optimistic assessment: 2025 was “the first Christmas in many years that we are not woken up with a phone call in the midnight to say that a church was attacked.” The Maiduguri mosque bombing—targeting Muslims—served as a grim reminder that jihadist violence transcends sectarian boundaries.

Economic pressures shaped celebrations. Prices rose over 30% year-on-year, prompting Archbishop Henry Ndukuba to advise frugality: “Don’t spend all you have in order to celebrate Christmas. Know that by January, we will be paying house rent, we will be paying school fees.” The transformation of Nigerian Christmas—from family-centred religious observance to commercialised, social media-driven spectacle—continued apace.

Super Eagles soar in Morocco

On the pitch, Nigeria’s Super Eagles delivered a perfect group-stage campaign at the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco. Victories over Tanzania (2-1), Tunisia (3-2), and Uganda (3-1) secured top spot in Group C with nine points—the only team to win all three matches. Victor Osimhen ended his goal drought against Tunisia, while Wilfred Ndidi scored his first international goal. The Nigerian Football Federation’s mandate to coach Eric Chelle: reach the final.

Entertainment milestones

The entertainment industry capped a strong year. HBO’s documentary “Wizkid: Long Live Lagos” premiered on Showmax over the Christmas weekend, chronicling the Grammy-winner’s journey from Surulere to global superstardom. Nollywood saw a competitive “December Showdown” at the box office, with Funke Akindele’s “Behind The Scenes” crossing ₦512 million in its first two weeks. The posthumous announcement that Fela Kuti would receive a Lifetime Achievement Award at the 2026 Grammys added to the sense of Afrobeats’ global triumph.

Technology, infrastructure, and innovation

Grid collapse dampens year-end optimism

Nigeria’s power sector delivered a characteristically unwelcome reminder of its fragility on December 29, when the national grid collapsed for the fourth time in 2025. Generation crashed from 4,800 MW to just 139 MW at 2:01 PM, with only 50 MW distributed nationwide. Multiple distribution companies received zero megawatts. The collapse—blamed partly on the vandalism of the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System earlier in December—underscored the structural constraints that continue to hobble Nigerian industry despite reform rhetoric.

Lagos-Calabar Highway secures historic funding

Better news came on December 26, when First Abu Dhabi Bank confirmed $1.26 billion in financing for the first section of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway. The 56km stretch represents the first Nigerian road project of this scale fully backed by international financiers—a vote of confidence in Tinubu’s infrastructure agenda. The complete 700km highway will connect nine coastal states, incorporating rail lines through its centre.

Fintech ecosystem matures

The tech sector continued its steady evolution. Nigerian fintech Clea launched from stealth on Christmas Eve, having processed $4 million in blockchain-powered cross-border transactions during its pilot phase. PayPal announced plans to return to Nigeria—a “too late to the party” narrative given the maturation of local champions like Moniepoint (now valued at over $1 billion). MTN Nigeria expanded its 5G offerings, though penetration remains under 3% of mobile subscribers amid high infrastructure costs and weak consumer demand.

International relations

A new chapter in US-Nigeria ties

The Christmas airstrikes represented a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s security posture. For decades, successive governments had rejected Western military assistance as neocolonial overreach. Tinubu’s pragmatic acceptance of American firepower—while maintaining that the operation targeted “foreign ISIS-linked elements” rather than domestic insurgents—suggests a recognition that ideology cannot defeat jihadists armed with drones and night-vision equipment.

The diplomatic choreography was notable: Foreign Minister Tuggar’s 19-minute call with Secretary Rubio before the strikes, followed by a five-minute follow-up. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised “more to come.” Whether this represents sustainable partnership or a one-off intervention ahead of Trump’s broader Africa policy remains unclear.

West Africa's uneasy equilibrium

Regional dynamics remained complicated. At the 68th Ordinary Session on December 14, ECOWAS approved a creative workaround for the departed Sahel states: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger would remain members of GIABA, the regional anti-money laundering body, despite their formal exit. Earlier in the month, Nigeria had deployed fighter jets and ground troops to help thwart a coup attempt in Benin—a reminder that Abuja remains the security guarantor of last resort for its smaller neighbours.

The Senate’s confirmation of 64 ambassadorial nominees on December 18 ended a two-year absence of Nigerian envoys at key postings including China, India, and the UN. “The era of timid foreign policy is over,” declared an APC spokesman. “The era of strategic, assertive diplomacy has begun.”

FDI surge and FATF exit

Foreign direct investment surged 700% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 to $720 million, while Nigeria’s exit from the FATF grey list removed the “dirty money destination” tag that had deterred legitimate investment. Total capital importation reached $14.78 billion in the first eight months of 2025—a 118% year-on-year increase, though portfolio investment dominates at 86%.

The week ahead

The first week of 2026 brings implementation challenges and continued uncertainty. The contested tax reforms take effect on January 1, setting up potential legal battles if the House investigation finds evidence of post-passage alterations. President Tinubu will attend the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week Summit, his 15th international trip of 2025—drawing criticism from opposition figures who question his priorities amid security concerns.

The Super Eagles face their Round of 16 opponent at AFCON 2025, with NFF pressure mounting for a deep tournament run. NNPC aims to restore full pipeline capacity following the Escravos-Lagos repairs, while Dangote Refinery’s turnaround maintenance on its main gasoline unit continues through late January. The House ad hoc committee on tax law alterations is expected to report findings that could either vindicate the government or deepen the constitutional crisis.

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For Nigeria, 2026 begins as 2025 ended: reform and crisis, progress and setback, inextricably intertwined. The world’s sixth most populous country—and one of Africa’s largest economies—continues to defy easy characterisation. American missiles may have struck Sokoto, but the harder battles remain domestic: building institutions that can withstand political pressure, delivering services to over 235 million citizens, and converting macroeconomic stabilisation into prosperity that ordinary Nigerians can feel. On those fronts, the verdict remains out.

Nigeria enters the Christmas season with an unusually crowded political tent. President Bola Tinubu’s ruling All Progressives Congress has absorbed so many opposition governors and lawmakers in recent weeks that critics warn the country is sliding toward “one-party rule.” Yet beneath the political theatre, harder numbers tell a more encouraging story: inflation has fallen to 14.45%, foreign reserves have climbed to a seven-year high, and the stock market has returned nearly 48% this year.

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Politics & Governance

A budget built on consolidation

President Tinubu stood before a joint session of the National Assembly on December 19 to present a ₦58.18 trillion($41.6 billion) spending plan for 2026—his administration’s most ambitious fiscal blueprint yet. Themed “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” the proposal allocates ₦5.41 trillion to security (the largest sectoral share), ₦3.56 trillion to infrastructure, and ₦3.52 trillion to education. Defence spending, unsurprisingly, dominates; Nigeria’s overlapping insurgencies demand it.

The budget assumes crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day at a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, with an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar—conservative enough to be credible. Revenue projections total ₦34.33 trillion, leaving a deficit of ₦23.85 trillion (4.28% of GDP), to be financed through domestic and external borrowing.

From fragmented to focused budgeting

Tinubu declared that Nigeria would transition to a single annual budget cycle from April 2026, ending the chaotic practice of overlapping appropriations. “The true value of a budget is not in its announcement, but in its delivery,” he noted—a tacit acknowledgment that execution has been Nigeria’s perennial weakness.

More consequentially, Tinubu announced that armed groups across the country—“bandits, kidnappers, militias, violent cults and their sponsors”—would be designated as terrorists. The declaration carries legal weight, potentially enabling more aggressive military action and asset seizures. Whether it translates into improved security remains to be seen.

The opposition’s great vanishing act

The bigger political story is the systematic hollowing-out of Nigeria’s opposition. Seven governors have defected from the People’s Democratic Party and Labour Party to the APC in late 2025, including Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State, whose December defection brought with him two senators and ten House of Representatives members this week alone. By December 23, only three PDP lawmakers from Rivers remained in the House.

“Has hunger defected?”

The scale of defections has alarmed civil society. The Centre for Human Rights and Civic Education warned that Nigeria is “evolving into a one-party system”—a “civilian dictatorship cloaked in democratic garb.” Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, one of the few remaining opposition figures, questioned whether defections addressed citizens’ concerns. “Has hunger defected?” he asked pointedly. “We run the risk of an Arab Spring.”

The Supreme Court’s December 15 ruling on emergency powers provided context for the political consolidation. Though the justices struck out a challenge to Tinubu’s March 2025 emergency declaration in Rivers State on procedural grounds, they affirmed—in what critics called mere “judicial discussion”—the president’s constitutional authority to declare emergencies and suspend elected officials. Five of the eleven plaintiff governors had already defected to the APC by the time the ruling was delivered; two more followed immediately afterward. The opposition’s legal ammunition, it seems, has run dry.

Economy & Business

An economy finding its feet

If politics disappointed democrats, economics offered some consolation. November’s headline inflation fell to 14.45%—the eighth consecutive monthly decline and below the 15% target Tinubu set at his inauguration. Food inflation dropped even more dramatically, to 11.08%, from nearly 40% a year earlier. Core inflation touched 18.04%, its lowest since February 2023.

The disinflation reflects painful but necessary reforms: the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification of exchange rates, and tighter monetary policy. The Central Bank of Nigeria has held its benchmark rate at 27% since September, when it delivered a surprise 50-basis-point cut—the first since 2020. Foreign reserves have climbed to approximately $46.7 billion, their highest level in nearly seven years, sufficient to cover more than ten months of imports.

Markets reward reform

The Nigerian Exchange has been a beneficiary. The All-Share Index closed at 152,057 on December 20, up 1.13% for the week and a remarkable 47.73% for the year. Market capitalisation reached ₦96.9 trillion. The rally reflects both improved macroeconomic fundamentals and the re-rating of Nigerian assets following the country’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list earlier this year—a development that avoided an estimated $30 billion in foregone investment.

Naira stability—at last?

Currency stability, the holy grail of Nigerian economic policy, remains elusive but improved. The naira traded at approximately ₦1,454-1,456 to the dollar in the official market on December 23, with parallel-market rates hovering around ₦1,480-1,496—a spread far narrower than the chasms of previous years. The CBN’s new electronic foreign-exchange matching system and Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code are designed to rebuild confidence in a market long plagued by opacity.

Oil’s revival

The oil sector, Nigeria’s fiscal backbone, has staged a modest recovery. NNPC E&P Limited achieved daily production of 355,000 barrels on December 1—its highest output since 1989 and a 52% increase from 2023 levels. The government targets two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million by 2030, though security challenges in the Niger Delta and ageing infrastructure make such ambitions uncertain.

Dangote’s dominance

The more transformative story is Dangote Refinery. Africa’s largest petroleum refinery is now processing 650,000 barrels per day and producing 50 million litres of petrol daily. On December 11, Dangote reduced its gantry price by 16% to ₦699 per litre, forcing competitors to respond. By December 22, petrol was selling at ₦739 per litre at over 2,000 MRS stations nationwide—still expensive by historical standards, but down from peaks above ₦800.

Aliko Dangote has announced plans to expand the refinery to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, partnering with Honeywell for technology. If successful, Nigeria would transition from a chronic fuel importer to a net exporter—a structural shift that could reshape the country’s balance of payments and fiscal arithmetic for decades.

Security & Defence

Security’s mixed ledger

The release of 130 kidnapped schoolchildren from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Niger State on December 21 provided Nigeria a rare moment of relief. The students, seized alongside their teachers in November in the single largest school kidnapping in Nigerian history, were freed after what the government described as a “military-intelligence operation.” Officials declined to confirm whether ransom was paid, though unofficial reports suggested approximately ₦1 billion ($688,000) changed hands for the first group released on December 7.

Yet the rescue underscored the underlying crisis. Between July 2024 and June 2025, kidnappers collected $1.66 million in confirmed ransoms, according to SBM Intelligence. The Northwest remains an epicentre: Zamfara State alone recorded 1,088 fatalities and 1,755 abductions in 2025. An estimated 30,000 bandits operate from over 100 camps in the state, funded partly by proceeds from illegally controlled gold mines.

Northeast insurgency grinds on

In the Northeast, the military claimed success against Boko Haram and its rival, the Islamic State West Africa Province. On December 21-22, troops neutralized 21 terrorists in Borno State after intercepting a logistics convoy. Yet the insurgency remains lethal: since launching “Camp Holocaust” earlier this year, ISWAP has conducted over 200 attacks, killing at least 500 people and overrunning more than 15 military outposts.

International Relations

A diplomatic reset with Washington

Relations with the United States, strained since President Trump designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom and threatened military intervention over alleged “Christian genocide,” appear to have thawed. Information Minister Mohammed Idris announced on December 22 that differences had been “fully resolved through constructive dialogue.”

$5.1bn health partnership seals détente

The rapprochement found concrete expression in a $5.1 billion health cooperation agreement signed December 19-20. The United States committed nearly $2.1 billion in grants through 2030 for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and maternal health programmes; Nigeria pledged $3 billion in domestic health expenditure—described as the largest co-investment any country has made under America’s new global health strategy. Notably, $200 million was earmarked for Christian faith-based healthcare facilities, a concession to the religious freedom concerns that had driven tensions.

Society & Culture

The cultural economy roars

Lagos’s December transformation into a party destination—”Detty December” in local parlance—offered a counterpoint to grim security headlines. The Flytime Music Festival celebrated its 20th anniversary at Eko Convention Centre; diaspora Nigerians returned in record numbers; and the Super Eagles opened their AFCON 2025 campaign with a 2-1 victory over Tanzania on December 23, goals from Semi Ajayi and Ademola Lookman securing three points.

Nollywood breaks records

Nollywood broke box-office records. Funke Akindele’s “Behind the Scenes,” released December 12, crossed ₦500 million in its first week—the highest-grossing Nigerian film of 2025. The entertainment industry’s growth reflects broader trends: Nigerians spent 1.3 billion hours on Spotify this year, and streaming consumption of local music rose 82%.

Technology, Infrastructure & Innovation

AI training scales, connectivity lags

The technology sector received a boost with Microsoft’s announcement that over 350,000 Nigerians have been trained in artificial intelligence skills through its national initiative since 2021. The World Bank approved a $500 million project to deploy 90,000 kilometres of fibre-optic cable nationwide. Yet challenges persist: 5G penetration remains at just 2.46% of mobile subscriptions, and telecommunications operators raised tariffs by 50% in January—the first increase in eleven years.

Power sector inches forward

The power sector made incremental progress. A ₦590 billion bond issue under the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme was launched December 19, the first tranche of a planned ₦4 trillion programme to clear legacy debts. Peak grid generation reached 5,801 megawatts in March 2025—a record—though actual supply still falls far short of the 13,625 MW of installed capacity. State-level electricity markets are emerging: Lagos licensed two new distribution companies, while Abia State assumed full regulatory control.

What to watch in the weeks ahead

Budget scrutiny begins

The National Assembly will deliberate on the 2026 budget through January and February, with public hearings likely to generate political theatre. The Central Bank’s first Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 2026 is expected in late January; with inflation declining and growth holding at nearly 4%, a further rate cut is possible, though the MPC may prefer to wait for more data.

Banking sector faces D-day

The banking sector faces a critical test. By March 31, 2026, all banks must meet new minimum capital requirements—₦500 billion for international banks, ₦200 billion for national ones. Sixteen of thirty-six banks have complied; the remainder must raise capital, merge, or face license downgrades. Expect intensified rights issues and possible consolidation announcements.

Christmas security watch

Security remains the wild card. Christmas has historically been a period of heightened violence in Nigeria: attacks in 2023 killed hundreds in Plateau State; five villages were struck in Benue in 2024. The military has deployed additional forces nationwide, but the geography of violence—stretching from Borno to Zamfara to the Middle Belt—makes comprehensive coverage impossible.

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Nigeria enters 2026 with an economy in better shape than it has been for years, and a political system in worse health than it has been for decades. The consolidation of power in the APC may deliver stability or breed complacency; the economic reforms may entrench growth or succumb to implementation failures. As always in Nigeria, the trajectory depends less on announced intentions than on the messy, contested process of execution. For now, the numbers are heading in the right direction. Whether the politics follows remains democracy’s open question.

The week of December 10-16, 2025 offered a revealing snapshot of Nigeria’s competing imperatives. Inflation fell to its lowest level in five years, the naira steadied after years of turbulence, and foreign reserves touched a seven-year peak. Yet the same week delivered a Supreme Court ruling that critics warn could transform the presidency into an instrument of constitutional autocracy. For Nigeria’s 220 million citizens, the calculus remains stark: economic stabilisation is proceeding in tandem with political centralisation—and it is unclear whether the two can long coexist.

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Politics & Governance

The court gives and the opposition trembles

Emergency powers, expanded

The most consequential development of the week came on December 15th, when the Supreme Court ruled 6-1 to dismiss the suit in SC/CV/329/2025 (filed by Adamawa State and ten other PDP-controlled states), effectively affirming President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s constitutional authority to declare emergencies in any state. The ruling validated Tinubu’s March 2025 six-month emergency in Rivers State and, by extension, affirmed his power to deploy extraordinary measures to restore order—measures which critics and the lone dissenting justice argue now include the power to suspend elected governors, deputies, and legislators.

Attorney-General Lateef Fagbemi hailed the decision as “a victory for Nigerians and democracy.” The African Democratic Congress offered a blunter assessment: the ruling creates a “constitutional tyrant.” Justice Obande Ogbuinya, in his lone dissent, argued that emergency powers should never extend to removing democratically elected officials. The ruling’s implications reach far beyond Rivers. With Nigeria’s federalism already fraying under decades of centralisation, opposition governors now operate under explicit notice that their tenure depends partly on presidential forbearance.

APC’s one-party dominance deepens

The week’s political choreography suggested Tinubu intends to capitalise on his strengthened position. At a Federal Executive Council meeting on December 10th, he approved firearms for forest guards nationwide and reiterated orders withdrawing police protection from VIPs without presidential clearance—moves that simultaneously address genuine security needs while concentrating coercive power. More telling was Governor Fubara’s December 16th declaration supporting Tinubu’s re-election, delivered while commissioning a road project in Ahoada East. The man Tinubu had suspended mere months earlier now pledged fealty—a tableau that speaks volumes about the new political arithmetic.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) now controls 27 of 36 governors, with the Peoples Democratic Party reduced to just five. Defections continue apace: Rasheed Kashamu, an Ogun State legislator, crossed from PDP to APC on December 16th, citing “irreconcilable differences.” The emerging opposition coalition—featuring former Senate President David Mark as interim ADC chairman and former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola as secretary—appears more a collection of displaced politicians than a coherent alternative. APC National Secretary Ajibola Basiru dismissively labelled critics “Internally Displaced Politicians.”

Ambassadors confirmed, federal character violated

The Senate, meanwhile, proceeded with ambassadorial confirmations following two years without envoys in Nigeria’s 109 foreign missions. Three non-career ambassadors were confirmed December 16th, with 64 nominees pending. The list’s most notable feature is its federal character violations: Senator Ali Ndume complained that some states received multiple slots while others received none—a constitutional breach that nevertheless appears destined for approval.

Economy & Business

The numbers finally cooperate

Inflation falls, naira stabilises

Nigeria’s macroeconomic data released this week offered the government its strongest vindication since taking office. November inflation fell to 14.45%—the lowest since October 2020 and the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Food inflation dropped to 11.08%, driven by a strong harvest season, while core inflation hit 18.0%, the lowest since February 2023. The trajectory suggests single-digit inflation may arrive by mid-2026, an outcome unthinkable eighteen months ago when prices were rising at 34%.

The naira has achieved something approaching stability. Trading between ₦1,451 and ₦1,457 per dollar in the official market throughout the week, the currency’s parallel market premium has collapsed to under 3%—down from over 60% a year ago. This convergence represents a quiet triumph of the Central Bank’s reforms under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, even if the exchange rate itself remains historically weak.

Reserves surge, oil output climbs

Foreign reserves provided the week’s headline figure: approximately $46.7 billion, a seven-year high with over ten months of import cover. The drivers are notable. Diaspora remittances have surged 66.7% to roughly $600 million monthly, pushing 2025 totals toward $23 billion—a five-year record. Foreign capital inflows reached $20.98 billion in the first ten months, a 70% increase over all of 2024. Moody’s upgrade to B3 earlier in 2025 and Nigeria’s removal from the FATF grey list have restored confidence that seemed permanently lost.

Oil production offered additional encouragement. NNPC E&P Limited hit 355,000 barrels per day on December 1st—its highest daily output since 1989 and a 52% increase over 2023 averages. The broader production target of 2 million bpd by 2027 now appears achievable rather than aspirational.

Debt and deficits temper optimism

Yet the fiscal picture reveals the reform agenda’s limits. The 2026 budget framework approved by the Senate envisions ₦54.4 trillion ($37.7 billion) in spending against projected revenues of ₦34.33 trillion—a deficit of ₦20.1 trillion financed primarily through borrowing of ₦17.89 billion, a 42% increase over 2025. Debt service will consume ₦15.9 trillion, nearly half of expected revenues. The budget assumes an oil price of $64.85 per barrel and production of 1.84 million bpd—both optimistic. More troubling: 70% of the 2025 capital budget will roll into 2026, with only 30% of planned projects actually funded.

The stock market captured investor enthusiasm: the NGX All-Share Index closed December 15th at 149,437.88 points, up 45.19% year-to-date, with market capitalisation reaching ₦95.27 trillion. The ICT sector led gains, with MTN Nigeria up 135% and NCR Nigeria up an extraordinary 993%.

Security & Defence

Security’s grim arithmetic persists

Churches and checkpoints under attack

The week’s violence struck with particular ferocity in Kogi and Borno states. On December 14th, gunmen attacked an Evangelical Church Winning All congregation in Kogi’s Aaaaz-Kiri community during Sunday services, killing at least one worshipper and abducting 13 people. Security forces killed five attackers. The same day, a suicide bomber killed five soldiers at a military checkpoint in Pulka, Borno State. Kogi Information Commissioner Kingsley Fanwo offered a telling diagnosis: military operations in neighbouring states are pushing bandits toward Kogi—a hydra-headed problem where pressure in one region displaces violence to another.

Troops prevail, civilians pay

The military demonstrated operational competence during the week. On December 12th-13th, troops repelled a major ISWAP assault on Forward Operating Base Mairari in Borno, destroying two vehicle-borne bombs and killing multiple attackers without Nigerian casualties. Operations across the North-West and North-Central neutralised over 25 terrorists and bandits, including an airstrike that killed 11 in Sokoto on December 10th. Yet controversial Nigerian Air Force strikes in Kukawa, Borno on December 14th killed at least five civilian drivers alongside three insurgent vehicles—an incident that occurred hours after the NAF announced a partnership with U.S. experts on civilian harm mitigation.

Tinubu mobilises resources, tensions mount

The St. Mary’s School kidnapping from late November remained unresolved, with 115-165 students and 12 teachers still in bandit captivity despite the December 8th release of 100 children. President Tinubu’s December 10th Federal Executive Council meeting authorised aggressive responses: withdrawing 11,566 police officers from VIP protection for redeployment to conflict zones, arming forest guards nationwide, and launching recruitment of 50,000 new police constables.

Regional tensions complicated the security picture. Following Nigeria’s successful intervention in Benin’s December 7th coup attempt—which saw Nigerian jets strike positions in Cotonou—relations with the Alliance of Sahel States deteriorated further. Eleven Nigerian soldiers detained in Burkina Faso after their C-130 made an emergency landing on December 9th remained in custody through week’s end despite being released from formal detention, their aircraft’s status unclear. The AES placed air defences on “maximum alert” and accused Nigeria of airspace violations, while Foreign Minister Tuggar described ongoing negotiations as “delicate.”

Society & Culture

Society prepares for protest and tournament

Labour mobilises as grievances mount

Nigerian civil society demonstrated its continued capacity for mobilisation. The Nigeria Labour Congress announced a nationwide protest for December 17th, citing insecurity, poverty, the ongoing JOHESU health workers’ strike, and what NLC President Joe Ajaero termed governance failures. The December 10th World Human Rights Day brought smaller #EndBadGovernance protests to Lagos and Abuja, with demonstrators demanding the release of detained activists and the sacking of Police Inspector-General Kayode Egbetokun.

The grievances are substantial. The World Bank reported in October that 139 million Nigerians—approximately 62% of the population—live in poverty. The JOHESU strike that began November 14th continues to paralyse healthcare delivery. ASUU’s October warning strike may resume if renegotiation of the 2009 FGN-ASUU agreement stalls further. The education sector’s crisis persists despite Vice President Kashim Shettima’s announcement that the education budget has grown to ₦3.52 trillion from ₦1.54 trillion in 2023.

Football and film provide distraction

Lighter fare arrived in the form of football. Coach Eric Sékou Chelle announced his 28-man Super Eagles squad for the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco on December 11th, with training camp opening in Cairo on December 14th. The squad features Victor Osimhen (Galatasaray), Ademola Lookman (Atalanta), and the surprise return of goalkeeper Francis Uzoho. Notable absences include the injured Victor Boniface. Nigeria opens Group C play against Tanzania on December 23rd in Fès, followed by Tunisia and Uganda.

The entertainment industry offered seasonal releases: Funke Akindele’s “Behind The Scenes” and Omoni Oboli’s “Promise Me December” premiered on December 12th, while anticipation builds for Kemi Adetiba’s “King of Boys 3: The Beginning of the End” on Christmas Day. Nigerian cinema is projected to reach ₦15 billion in 2025 revenues, a 58% increase from 2024—evidence that cultural industries continue thriving despite broader economic pressures.

Technology, Infrastructure & Innovation

Digital infrastructure advances amid contradictions

5G expands, basic connectivity struggles

Technology developments reflected both progress and persistent challenges. MTN Nigeria launched unlimited 5G broadband plans on December 11-12th, offering 50 Mbps and 100 Mbps options with a 30-day free trial for router purchasers. The rollout advances 5G adoption, though coverage remains concentrated in Lagos and Abuja, and only about 4 million subscribers—roughly 3% of mobile users—have access to 5G networks.

The Nigerian Communications Commission faced embarrassment when network quality in Abuja deteriorated sharply, attributed to diesel supply disruptions affecting IHS Nigeria’s base stations. The incident exposed the fragility of telecoms infrastructure dependent on backup power in a country where grid electricity remains unreliable. Broadband penetration stood at 48.78% as of June—well below the December 2025 target of 70%.

Private capital targets infrastructure gaps

More promising was the launch of CardinalStone’s ₦500 billion umbrella infrastructure fund on December 16th, Nigeria’s largest such platform, with an initial ₦20 billion infrastructure debt vehicle targeting power, gas, telecommunications, and transport. The UK committed an additional $75 million for infrastructure development through the UK-Nigeria Infrastructure Advisory Facility. These private and bilateral flows may prove more consequential than government capital spending, given the budget’s constrained fiscal space.

NITDA’s iHatch programme announced winners on December 12th: Interface Africa (clean energy fintech) received $15,000, Ahioma (e-commerce) $12,000, and Linia Finance (fintech) $10,000—modest sums but evidence of an incubation ecosystem slowly maturing. The agency also launched Digital Literacy for All campaigns in Kano and Bauchi, targeting 70% digital literacy by 2027.

International Relations

ECOWAS pivots while regional tensions simmer

Security funding and leadership transitions

The 68th ECOWAS Summit in Abuja on December 14th delivered the week’s most significant diplomatic outcomes. Leaders approved $2.85 million each for Nigeria, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo from the Regional Security Fund to address terrorism spillover from the Sahel. The Summit instructed urgent operationalisation of a regional counter-terrorism brigade—recognition that the AES countries’ departure has created a security vacuum ECOWAS must fill or face.

Nigeria secured the Vice President position in the 2026-2030 ECOWAS Commission leadership, with Senegal taking the presidency. Dr. Habibu Yaya Bappah was sworn in as Commissioner for Internal Services. The bloc endorsed Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama as its candidate for African Union Chair in 2027—a diplomatic win for Accra though one whose prospects at the continental level remain uncertain.

Tuggar’s active week of bilateral engagement

Foreign Minister Tuggar’s week was notably active. He met Beninese counterpart Olushegun Adjadi Bakar on December 11th to coordinate post-coup responses, telling journalists that “whatever happens in one country inevitably triggers ripple effects in the other. A coordinated regional response is no longer optional.” He met US Ambassador Richard Mills Jr. on December 15th amid ongoing discussions about expanded counterterrorism cooperation and Washington’s October designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious persecution. Tuggar also hosted Gambian Foreign Minister Sering Modou Njie, reviewing preparations for a bilateral Joint Commission in early 2026.

The Week Ahead

The week ahead holds multiple flashpoints

The Super Eagles face Egypt in a pre-AFCON friendly on December 16th in Cairo before flying to Morocco on December 18th. The tournament, beginning December 21st, will dominate public attention through early January.

The scheduled December 17th NLC protest presents the week’s most immediate uncertainty. Labour’s grievances—security failures, healthcare strikes, poverty—resonate broadly, and previous #EndBadGovernance protests in August 2024 demonstrated capacity for nationwide mobilisation. Government responses to past protests have included arrests and restrictions on media, raising concerns about potential heavy-handedness.

Economically, the final 2025 debt auctions—₦825 billion in bonds and Treasury bills—conclude December 17-18th, testing investor appetite before year-end. Banking recapitalisation continues toward the March 31, 2026 deadline, with 16 of 36 banks compliant and several rights issues pending. Markets will watch for any year-end policy surprises from the CBN, though with inflation declining and reserves strong, the central bank appears inclined toward continuity.

The detained Nigerian soldiers in Burkina Faso remain a diplomatic wild card. Resolution likely requires quiet negotiations rather than public confrontation, but the AES’s hardening posture—including instructions to scrutinise Nigerian products—suggests the broader relationship is deteriorating even as ECOWAS attempts to maintain engagement channels.

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Nigeria ends 2025 in considerably better macroeconomic shape than it began, a genuine achievement after years of policy drift and currency crises. The consolidation of presidential power through both judicial affirmation and political manoeuvring has created a more centralised governance structure—efficient, perhaps, but freighted with risks for democratic accountability. The security situation remains the irreducible challenge: no amount of economic stabilisation compensates for citizens who cannot worship, farm, or send children to school without fear of abduction or death.

The government’s wager is that improved economic conditions will eventually translate into better security outcomes and political legitimacy. That wager has precedent—Nigeria’s previous democratic consolidation in the 2000s proceeded alongside oil boom prosperity. Whether it can work when borrowed money substitutes for oil revenues, and when 62% of the population lives in poverty, is the question 2026 will begin to answer.

President Bola Tinubu’s administration demonstrated both its regional ambitions and domestic vulnerabilities in a week that saw Nigerian warplanes defend democracy in Cotonou, 100 kidnapped schoolchildren rescued from bandits, and the opposition’s last South-South governor defect to the ruling party. The juxtaposition is instructive: Africa’s most populous nation can mobilize military force across borders within hours, yet remains unable to guarantee the safety of students in its own schools.

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Politics & Governance

A party that swallows its opposition

Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State joined the All Progressives Congress (APC) on December 9, completing the ruling party’s conquest of the oil-rich South-South region—a zone that has been a historic stronghold for the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. The defection, announced at a stakeholders’ meeting in Port Harcourt following a closed-door session with President Tinubu, brought to four the number of South-South governors who have abandoned the PDP this year alone.

“If President Tinubu had not intervened, there wouldn’t be a Siminalayi Fubara today,” the governor declared, referencing the president’s role in mediating his bitter feud with his predecessor and political godfather, Nyesom Wike. The APC now controls 26 of Nigeria’s 36 governorships, while the PDP has been reduced to six—a remarkable reversal from the party that held power federally for 16 uninterrupted years until 2015.

The week’s defection wave extended beyond Rivers. In the National Assembly, Representative Mansur Musa Jega of Kebbi State crossed to APC, citing “persistent internal crises” within the PDP. In Zamfara, the PDP chairman himself switched allegiance, declaring his former party “dead” in the state. Critics warn of creeping one-party dominance; APC officials dismiss such concerns as sour grapes. “These defections are voluntary and driven by support for the administration’s policies,” presidential adviser Daniel Bwala insisted. Perhaps. But the gravitational pull of federal patronage in Nigeria’s winner-takes-all politics makes such moves entirely rational—and the PDP’s organisational dysfunction has made them inevitable.

A new hand on the sword

General Christopher Musa (retired), sworn in as Defence Minister on December 4, wasted no time setting expectations. The former Chief of Defence Staff promised to investigate the troop withdrawal that preceded the November 17 kidnapping of 26 schoolgirls in Kebbi State, probe the killing of Brigadier General Musa Uba by terrorists, and review all military operations “from day one.” His Senate confirmation hearing was notable for its candour: Musa endorsed border fencing with Cameroon (approximately 1,900 km) and Niger (roughly 1,500 km), proposed ending all ransom payments, and identified poverty and illegal mining as root causes of insecurity.

The National Assembly, meanwhile, passed resolutions demanding the death penalty for kidnappers and the public naming of terrorism financiers—measures that play well politically but have historically proven difficult to enforce. More consequential may be the renewed push for state police: the Northern Governors’ Forum, meeting in Kaduna, unanimously endorsed decentralised policing as “critical and effective,” adding momentum to constitutional amendments that have languished for years.

Economy & Business

A fortress of foreign reserves

Nigeria’s external reserves reached $45.04 billion by December 4—a six-year high that provides the Central Bank with substantial firepower to defend the naira through the holiday season. The currency traded in a remarkably tight band of ₦1,445-1,465 per dollar on the official market, while the parallel market premium narrowed to just ₦18-40, down from triple digits in previous years. The convergence suggests the CBN’s exchange rate reforms, however painful, are achieving their intended effect.

Inflation continued its descent, falling to 16.05% in October—the lowest since March 2022 and the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Food inflation dropped even more sharply, to 13.12% from 16.87%, as the harvest season delivered relief to consumers battered by two years of price shocks. The caveat: January’s rebasing of the Consumer Price Index from 2009 to 2024 makes comparisons tricky, and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians remains one of persistent hardship.

Black gold flows again

NNPC Exploration & Production recorded daily output of 355,000 barrels—its highest since 1989—while national crude production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day in the third quarter, up from just over 1 million barrels during the theft-plagued nadir of 2022. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission launched a new licensing round offering 50 blocks expected to attract $10 billion in investment and add 400,000 barrels per day when fully operational.

NNPC Limited reported record profits of ₦5.4 trillion for 2024, a 64% increase that reflects both higher production and the end of the ruinous petrol subsidy regime. Nigerian benchmark crudes traded above $65 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions including Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

Markets recover their nerve

The Nigerian Stock Exchange staged a decisive rebound after November’s brutal ₦6.5 trillion selloff, with the All-Share Index climbing 2.45% for the week. Industrial goods led the recovery (+7.38%), followed by banking (+3.20%). The catalyst for November’s “Black Tuesday” meltdown—a proposed capital gains tax increase on equity investments from January 2026—remains unresolved, with market participants pressing for a policy rethink.

Banks continue mobilising capital ahead of the CBN’s March 2026 recapitalisation deadline, with over ₦2.8 trillion raised sector-wide. The Unity Bank-Providus Bank merger, supported by a ₦700 billion CBN facility, may be the first of several consolidations as smaller lenders scramble to meet new minimum capital requirements.

Security & Defence

A hundred children freed, over one hundred more await

Security forces rescued 100 students from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Niger State on December 7-8, more than two weeks after bandits seized over 300 pupils and 12 teachers from the institution. The children, aged 10 to 17, were recovered from Wawa Forest in a joint operation coordinated by the National Security Adviser’s office. President Tinubu hailed the rescue but acknowledged the obvious: 115 students and 12 teachers remain in captivity, joining the estimated 7,000 Nigerians held hostage across the country in the last year.

The rescue offered a rare piece of good news amid an otherwise grim security landscape. In Kogi State, gunmen attacked a church during Sunday service, abducting the pastor and several congregants—the second such incident in the area within 24 hours. In Kwara, a traditional ruler was kidnapped with demands of ₦150 million; two Chinese construction supervisors were seized near the Benin border. The pattern is depressingly familiar: an average of 490 people were kidnapped in a 13-day period ending December 1, according to local press tallies.

The neighbourhood policeman

Nigeria’s most consequential security action of the week occurred beyond its borders. When soldiers in Benin Republic attempted to overthrow President Patrice Talon on December 7, Nigerian Air Force jets were scrambled within hours at the Beninese government’s request. Ground forces followed. By evening, the coup attempt was crushed, 14 soldiers arrested, and Talon was addressing the nation from a secured position.

President Tinubu framed the intervention as fulfilling Nigeria’s obligations under the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. “Today, the Nigerian armed forces stood gallantly as a defender and protector of constitutional order,” he declared. ECOWAS deployed additional troops from Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana; at the bloc’s Mediation and Security Council meeting on December 9, Nigeria received a standing ovation.

The operation showcased capabilities that Nigeria has struggled to deploy effectively within its own territory. It also highlighted a constitutional ambiguity: critics argued that deploying troops for combat abroad without prior National Assembly approval constituted an impeachable offence. The Senate subsequently provided retrospective authorisation—unanimously and within four hours.

The Americans come calling

A Congressional delegation led by Representatives Mario Díaz-Balart and Riley Moore met National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu on December 7, advancing the security partnership formalised during Ribadu’s Washington visit in November. The meetings produced commitments to a joint task force, enhanced intelligence sharing, and—notably—a shift in American rhetoric.

“Things are moving in the right direction,” Representative Moore declared, praising the government’s rescue of the kidnapped students and Tinubu’s declaration of a security state of emergency. The Trump administration had designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom violations just weeks earlier; the conversion from confrontation to cooperation represents a diplomatic win for Abuja.

Society & Culture

The perennial campus crisis

The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and the federal government faced a tense standoff after ASUU’s November 29 ultimatum expired, but a total shutdown appears to have been averted. Following intense negotiations, ASUU reportedly accepted the government’s improved offer of a 40% salary increase—a significant jump from previous proposals, though it remains to be seen if it fully satisfies the union’s broader base.

While this breakthrough addresses immediate wage concerns, tension remains over unresolved issues, including the payment of withheld salaries from the 2022 strike, promotion arrears dating back four years, and a fundamental renegotiation of the 2009 funding agreement. With the precedent of two-decade-old disputes and broken promises, trust remains fragile. Nigerian universities have lost years of academic time to strikes since 2000; another prolonged shutdown would damage a generation already scarred by COVID disruptions.

Eagles prepare, captain departs

The Super Eagles’ preparations for the Africa Cup of Nations have shifted directly to Morocco (host nation) after the planned camp in Cairo was cancelled due to FIFA scheduling conflicts. However, the mood remains dampened by William Troost-Ekong’s sudden retirement from international football. The captain’s departure leaves a defensive void as Nigeria prepares for Group C matches against Tanzania (December 23), Tunisia, and Uganda. Coach Eric Chelle faces intense pressure to rebuild his back line around Calvin Bassey and Semi Ajayi while seeking redemption for his team’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup—a humiliation that has placed his own tenure under heavy scrutiny.

Afrobeats’ relentless march

Apple Music crowned Fola its “Face” of the “Best of 2025 Afrobeats Hits” playlist after his debut album “Catharsis” achieved significant chart success—a dominance that would have been unimaginable even five years ago when the genre was still fighting for international recognition. Burna Boy collected another Grammy nomination, for “Higher” in the Best African Music Performance category, while Asake announced a continental tour including Lagos, Nairobi, and Abidjan. The industry’s commercial success offers a counterpoint to Nigeria’s governance challenges: its creative economy requires no subsidy removal or CBN intervention, merely a smartphone and talent.

A chieftaincy and a controversy

First Lady Oluremi Tinubu received the title “Yeye Asiwaju Gbogbo Ile Oodua” from the Ooni of Ife on December 7—a significant honour in Yoruba tradition. The ceremony was overshadowed by an awkward exchange in which Mrs. Tinubu asked Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke to stop singing and proceed with his prepared remarks. Opinions divided predictably: critics accused her of bullying an elected official; defenders noted she addressed him directly rather than through intermediaries. The incident illustrated the ambiguous constitutional status of Nigeria’s first lady—a position with considerable influence but, as activist lawyer Maduabuchi Idam observed, “no foundation in Nigerian law.”

International Relations

West Africa’s indispensable nation

Nigeria’s intervention in Benin cemented its position as ECOWAS’s security guarantor—a role it has played intermittently since the Liberian civil wars of the 1990s. The speed of response was notable: fighter jets were in Beninese airspace within hours of the coup announcement, demonstrating command-and-control capabilities that had been questioned after years of counterinsurgency struggles at home.

ECOWAS Commission President Omar Touray declared the region in a “state of emergency” on December 9, citing 7.6 million forcibly displaced West Africans and over one million refugees. The declaration acknowledged what has become increasingly obvious: the coup contagion that spread through Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger between 2020 and 2023 remains a threat to the region’s remaining democracies.

The Sahel standoff

Relations with the Alliance of Sahel States—the military juntas governing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—took a confrontational turn after a Nigerian Air Force C-130 made an emergency landing in Burkina Faso on December 8. The Nigerian military attributed the landing to a technical fault during a ferry mission to Portugal; the AES condemned it as an “unfriendly act” and airspace violation, detaining 11 Nigerian personnel and placing air defences on “maximum alert.”

The incident highlighted the delicate position Nigeria occupies between its ECOWAS obligations and its practical need to manage relations with neighbours who have rejected the bloc’s authority. Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar’s visit to Niger earlier in the week had signalled a thaw; the Burkina Faso standoff demonstrated how quickly temperatures can rise.

Diplomatic diversification

President Tinubu received credentials from 21 ambassadors and high commissioners on December 4, including envoys from Japan, Turkey, India, and Iran—a routine ceremony that nonetheless reflected Nigeria’s efforts to diversify partnerships beyond traditional Western allies. French President Emmanuel Macron called Tinubu on December 7 to discuss security cooperation, pledging training and intelligence support; a Nigeria-Saudi Arabia defence pact was sealed on December 9, adding another strand to Abuja’s web of military partnerships.

Foreign capital continues flowing: $14.78 billion entered Nigeria in the first eight months of 2025, up 118% year-on-year. But the composition troubles economists—86% was portfolio investment, compared to just 2.9% foreign direct investment. Hot money chasing naira-denominated yields is welcome but fickle; productive capital that builds factories and creates jobs remains elusive.

The Week Ahead

December 10-23: Rivers State government commissions ten major infrastructure projects, symbolising the fruits of political reconciliation with the federal government.

December 14: Super Eagles camp expected to open in Morocco (shifted from Cairo) ahead of AFCON 2025; the squad will be trimmed from 54 to 28 players.

December 15: NNPC Group CEO Bayo Ojulari appears before the House Public Accounts Committee to account for 2021 expenditures—a hearing that could reveal uncomfortable details about the corporation’s pre-reform finances.

December 15-21: “Motherland 2025” diaspora festival in Abuja and Lagos, targeting investment in technology, real estate, and healthcare sectors.

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The paradox of Nigerian power was on full display this week: a nation capable of projecting military force across borders within hours, yet unable to secure a Catholic school in its own northwest. The rescue of 100 children offered a moment of relief; the 115 or more who remain hostage serve as a reminder of unfinished business. As the year closes, the Tinubu administration has consolidated political dominance, stabilised the currency, and reasserted regional leadership. Whether these achievements translate into security for ordinary Nigerians—farmers, students, worshippers—remains the question that will define its legacy.

President Bola Tinubu declared a nationwide security emergency on November 26th, prompting cynics to wonder whether “emergency” remains the mot juste for a condition that has persisted, with baroque variations, for the better part of a decade. Over 400 people—predominantly schoolchildren—were abducted across four states in barely two weeks, with 253 students and 12 teachers from a Niger State Catholic school remaining in captivity as the week closed. The declaration triggered what passes for vigorous action in Abuja: a defence minister’s abrupt departure and constitutional promises to enable state-level policing—a reform discussed since 1999 with the urgency typically reserved for Nigerian infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, the economy persisted in its perverse resilience—purchasing managers optimistic for a twelfth straight month even as the stock market shed ₦6.5 trillion. Nigeria’s gift for simultaneity was on full display: simultaneously prospering and haemorrhaging, reforming and regressing, declaring emergencies while normalising catastrophe.

Politics & Governance

An emergency declaration for a decade-old crisis

Tinubu’s November 26th declaration ordered 50,000 new police recruits, withdrew VIP protection officers to frontline duties, and converted National Youth Service Corps camps into police training facilities. More significantly, he called for constitutional amendments enabling states to establish their own police forces—a reform Southern governors immediately declared “non-negotiable” at their Ogun State emergency summit. One might observe that declaring non-negotiable what has been debated for 26 years suggests either admirable optimism or selective amnesia about Nigerian federalism.

The emergency’s first political casualty arrived December 1st when Defence Minister Mohammed Badaru Abubakar resigned, citing health grounds. The timing—mere days after telling BBC Hausa that certain terrorist hideouts proved “too dense for bombs to reach”—struck observers as medically fortuitous. Within 24 hours, Tinubu nominated General Christopher Gwabin Musa, the recently retired Chief of Defence Staff, whose curriculum vitae includes a Colin Powell Award for Soldiering and, one presumes, a more robust bombing strategy. Senate confirmation appears perfunctory; when schoolchildren number among the hostages, senators find efficiency.

The ambassadorial deluge: better late than scandalous

After two years of diplomatic positions filled by chargés d’affaires, Tinubu submitted 35 ambassadorial nominations—first three on November 26th, then a cascade of 32 more on November 29th. The list features Professor Mahmood Yakubu (whose stewardship of INEC remains, to understate matters, contested), Femi Fani-Kayode (former Aviation Minister, current social media provocateur), and Reno Omokri (whose online commentary evidently substitutes for diplomatic preparation).

The PDP condemned the roster as “scandalous” and “reprehensible”, particular umbrage taken with Yakubu’s inclusion. That the opposition expects this to matter reveals touching faith in institutional memory. With the APC controlling 25 of 36 governorships, Senate confirmation represents mere formality. The nominees will disperse to Beijing, New Delhi, Abu Dhabi, and various multilateral postings, where they will represent a nation whose previous government apparently found diplomacy optional.

Opposition politics as performance art

The PDP cancelled its Osun State governorship primary on December 2nd, state chairman Sunday Bisi citing “internal imbroglio at the national level”—a euphemism suggesting everything from disagreement to civil war depending on one’s perspective. Governor Ademola Adeleke, who left the PDP on November 4th, is expected to announce his new political home by mid-December. That a sitting governor must shop for political accommodation captures Nigerian opposition dynamics more eloquently than any policy brief.

The usual defection carousel continued. Over 1,500 PDP members in Kebbi State joined the APC, while Taraba Governor Agbu Kefas aligned with Tinubu. Simultaneously, some 10,000 members from APC, ADC, and Labour Party decamped to the PDP in Benue State. One hesitates to call this chaos; chaos suggests the absence of pattern. This is rather the Nigerian political marketplace functioning precisely as designed: loyalty follows power, power follows resources, resources follow incumbency. The PDP’s implosion and the APC’s inexorable expansion represent not aberration but equilibrium.

Economy & Business

The economy expands while investors flee

Nigeria’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index reached 56.4 in November, up from 55.4 in October, marking the 12th consecutive month of expansion. Agriculture led at 58.2, with services at 56.8 and industry at 54.2. Twenty-nine of 36 subsectors reported growth—the strongest breadth of expansion all year. For economists fond of positive indicators, November delivered abundance.

For equity investors, it delivered carnage. The Nigerian Exchange shed ₦6.54 trillion in November market capitalisation, a 6.7% collapse driven by impending 30% capital gains tax implementation from January 2026. Finance Minister Wale Edun’s reassuring visit to the Exchange provided a brief rally; longer-term confidence proved elusive. Month-end capitalisation stood at ₦91.29 trillion, down from October’s ₦97.83 trillion—yet still up 45% year-to-date from December 2024’s ₦62.76 trillion. Nigerian equities, it seems, reward those with iron stomachs and selective memory.

The Central Bank held its benchmark rate at 27% following the November 24-25 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the fourth consecutive hold. Governor Cardoso noted the gap between official and parallel exchange rates has narrowed to approximately 2%, down from 60% a year earlier. External reserves reached $46.7 billion, providing ten months of import cover. Daily foreign exchange market activity now reaches $500 million, often without CBN intervention. The naira traded steadily around ₦1,446-1,447 to the dollar throughout the week—an equilibrium both fragile and, by recent standards, miraculous.

NNPC profits while banks race deadlines

NNPC reported ₦5.4 trillion in profit after tax for 2024, a 64% surge from ₦3.3 trillion the previous year, with revenue reaching ₦45.1 trillion. The national oil company announced a $60 billion investment roadmap through 2030, targeting two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million by decade’s end. To advance these ambitions, Nigeria launched an oil blocks roadshow with the novel addition of Beijing—where Chinese investment commitments already exceed $20 billion. One observes that while Trump threatens military intervention, China offers chequebooks. Geopolitical messaging could hardly be clearer.

Sixteen of 36 banks have met the CBN’s new capital requirements ahead of the March 31st, 2026 deadline. Fitch described the exercise as “the most ambitious in Sub-Saharan Africa”, requiring international-license banks to raise capital to ₦500 billion from ₦50 billion. Banks raised ₦1.7 trillion in 2024 and roughly ₦800 billion through July 2025; another ₦900 billion is expected by year-end. The compliant roster includes Access, Zenith, GTBank, Fidelity, and the newly merged Union Bank-Titan Trust entity—suggesting the sector is approaching recapitalisation with uncharacteristic efficiency.

Security & Defence

The arithmetic of abduction continues

The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights documented at least 402 kidnap victims across Niger, Kebbi, Kwara, and Borno states since mid-November, with only 88 freed or escaped by November 25th. The largest incident—the November 21st seizure of 303 students and 12 teachers from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Papiri, Niger State—remained substantially unresolved. Fifty children escaped initially; 253 students and all 12 teachers remained captive with no communication from their abductors.

The 24 Kebbi schoolgirls abducted November 17th were released November 25th, the mechanics of their freedom—ransom, negotiation, or military action—never officially clarified. Nigerian governments prefer opacity regarding ransoms; the appearance of not negotiating with terrorists apparently matters more than the actuality. Borno State troops rescued 12 teenage girls on December 1st, a modest tactical success amid overwhelming strategic failure.

New abductions continued with depressing regularity. On November 29th, bandits raided Chacho village in Sokoto State, seizing 14 people including a bride, 10 bridesmaids, a baby, and the infant’s mother. Intelligence reports indicated Sokoto experienced its highest rate of bandit-initiated kidnappings of the year during November—possibly because peace deals in neighbouring states have displaced armed groups rather than disarming them. Nigerian banditry, like Nigerian traffic, relocates rather than resolves.

The human cost accumulates beyond headlines

The Venerable Edwin Achi, an Anglican priest kidnapped in Kaduna State on October 28th, was killed by his captors on November 26th after his family could not meet ransom demands; his wife Sarah remains in captivity. In Niger State, Anthony Musa died of apparent heart attack on November 24th from the trauma of having three children abducted. The National Human Rights Commission reported 2,266 people killed by bandits or insurgents in the first half of 2025 alone, exceeding all of 2024.

School closures now affect 47 Federal Unity Colleges nationwide and over 20,000 schools across seven states—Bauchi, Benue, Kwara, Plateau, Niger, Yobe, and Katsina. Niger State declared an early Christmas break extending into 2026. The opposition African Democratic Congress observed, with uncomfortable accuracy, that “by closing schools, the Tinubu administration is reinforcing the very ideology Boko Haram was built upon.”

Kanu’s legal options narrow

On November 28th, the Court of Appeal dismissed Nnamdi Kanu’s fundamental rights appeal, ruling the case “academic” following his November 20th terrorism conviction. The IPOB leader, sentenced to life imprisonment, has 90 days to appeal the substantive conviction. His defence argues the verdict cannot survive given its reliance on the 2013 Terrorism Prevention and Prohibition Act, superseded by 2022 legislation—a legal technicality that may prove his last viable recourse. Forty-two Southeast lawmakers have petitioned Tinubu for Kanu’s release in pursuit of “peace in the Southeast,” suggesting that realpolitik may yet trump jurisprudence.

Society & Culture

Doctors return, healthcare crisis persists

After 29 days on strike, the Nigerian Association of Resident Doctors (NARD) suspended industrial action on November 29th following a new Memorandum of Understanding. Over 11,000 resident doctors in 91 accredited training centres had paralysed public hospitals since November 1st—unfortunate timing given the security crisis was generating medical emergencies at industrial scale.

Only 21 million Nigerians currently have health insurance. The 2025 federal budget allocated 5.18% to health (₦2.48 trillion), well below the 15% Abuja Declaration target. An estimated 50,000 Nigerian-trained doctors now work abroad, a brain drain the nascent Diaspora Health Impact Initiative hopes to partially address through remote engagement. One questions whether Zoom consultations constitute adequate remedy for a healthcare system haemorrhaging expertise to Ghana, Canada, and points beyond.

Interfaith leaders resist division; filmmakers prosper

The Interfaith Dialogue Forum for Peace—comprising 120 Christian and Muslim leaders—issued a November 23rd statement warning against allowing President Trump’s rhetoric to “tear the country apart”, emphasising that violence “affects all communities” regardless of faith. The Christian Council of Nigeria struck a different tone, Archbishop David O.C. Onuoha declaring that “Nigeria is bleeding excessively” and urging acceptance of international assistance. The tension between interfaith solidarity and desperate appeals for external intervention captures Nigeria’s diplomatic tightrope: unity at home, supplication abroad.

Nollywood continued its commercial ascent, with FilmOne Entertainment targeting ₦15 billion in box office revenue by year-end. “Reel Love” has grossed ₦303 million while “Ori Rebirth” stands at ₦374 million, currently the ninth-highest-grossing Nigerian film of all time. Nigeria’s security apparatus cannot protect children, but its filmmakers can conquer foreign markets—a telling inversion of state and private sector competence.

International Relations

ECOWAS confronts yet another coup

The November 23rd military coup in Guinea-Bissau prompted Nigeria to grant diplomatic protection to opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa, who sought shelter at the Nigerian embassy facing what Abuja described as “imminent threat to his life”. Former President Goodluck Jonathan, leading an ECOWAS election observation mission, was stranded before returning to meet Tinubu on November 29th, describing the coup as “staged political drama” orchestrated by ousted President Embaló.

Nigeria officially launched the ECOWAS National Biometric Identity Card (ENBIC) on December 1st—11 years after the regional bloc first introduced the initiative. Interior Minister Dr. Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo called it a “historic milestone”, though the January 2025 departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS has somewhat diminished the bloc’s geographic coherence.

Washington threatens, Beijing invests

Trump’s designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom violations and his November 1st threat of military action over alleged “Christian genocide” continued casting shadows over bilateral relations. Information Minister Mohammed Idris Malagi rejected the characterisation, noting violence “doesn’t discriminate between Muslim or Christian”. NBC News reported Washington pursuing diplomatic tools, sanctions, and intelligence sharing rather than direct intervention—suggesting the military rhetoric was theatre rather than policy.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated Beijing “firmly supports” Nigeria and “opposes any country’s interference in other countries’ internal affairs under the pretext of religion and human rights”. With over $20 billion in Chinese investment commitments and Nigeria actively courting Beijing on its oil blocks roadshow, the geopolitical calculus simplifies considerably: threats versus chequebooks, lectures versus infrastructure. Washington may find that coupling aid with public criticism yields diminishing returns when competitors offer investment with diplomatic support.

The Week Ahead

December 3-9 promises continued intensity. Senate confirmation hearings for General Musa and the first ambassadorial nominees will test whether institutional processes can keep pace with security imperatives. AFRICOM Commander’s anticipated December visit will determine whether Washington’s diplomatic recalibration extends beyond rhetoric to operational cooperation. The four-week NARD strike suspension review looms; compliance failures could trigger renewed industrial action, paralysing hospitals during peak “Detty December” festival season—when diaspora Nigerians return home for holidays.

Most urgently, the 253 students and 12 teachers remain in captivity. Search operations continue across Kwara, Niger, and Kebbi forests, deploying tactical squads and local hunters. History suggests this combination of resources rarely succeeds, but the alternative—admitting that Nigerian security forces cannot protect or recover children—proves too devastating to acknowledge.

The capital gains tax implementation and bank recapitalisation deadlines draw closer by the day. Whether the economy’s peculiar resilience can withstand simultaneous shocks—security crisis, policy uncertainty, structural adjustment—will be tested in the weeks ahead. Nigeria has long bet it can outgrow its problems. What happens when problems grow faster?

The Federal Republic is a weekly newsletter analysing Nigerian politics, economics, security, and society. Subscribe for comprehensive briefings every Wednesday.

Nigeria has grown practiced at managing multiple crises simultaneously—a necessary skill when governing 237 million people across terrain ranging from Sahelian banditry to Delta oil theft. Yet even by Nigerian standards, the week of November 19-25 was remarkable: 303 students kidnapped on Thursday, 24 schoolgirls freed on Monday (from an earlier abduction). President Bola Tinubu cancelled his G20 appearance, the Central Bank held interest rates steady despite seven consecutive months of disinflation, and IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu received a life sentence that his supporters vow to appeal. That security collapses while the economy stabilizes captures Nigeria’s essential paradox: a snapshot of Africa’s most populous nation at an inflection point, with neither optimism nor despair entirely justified.

Politics & Governance

Life imprisonment for Kanu—death penalty withheld, appeals promised

The defining political act of the week occurred not in Abuja’s legislative chambers but in a courtroom. On November 20, Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court convicted Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, on all seven terrorism counts, sentencing him to life imprisonment on four counts, twenty years on another, and five on the remainder—all to run concurrently. The judge stopped short of imposing the death penalty, citing judicial mercy, though Kanu’s dramatic ejection from court before sentencing for “unruly conduct” suggested the defendant saw little mercy in the proceedings. His lawyers immediately announced plans to appeal, arguing that the charges rested upon a since-repealed terrorism statute. Abia State Governor Alex Otti, threading a needle familiar to southeastern politicians, announced he would pursue an “alternative resolution strategy” through diplomatic channels—a tacit acknowledgment that the courtroom avenue appears closed.

The conviction removes a persistent symbolic thorn from Tinubu’s side, yet its political ramifications remain uncertain. IPOB’s “sit-at-home” orders have paralyzed economic activity across the Southeast for years, and the movement’s capacity for disruption will now be tested without its charismatic figurehead. The government will hope the verdict breaks the spell; skeptics note that martyrdom has historically strengthened, not weakened, secessionist movements.

Twenty-five states and counting: the relentless APC tide

Meanwhile, the All Progressives Congress continues its inexorable consolidation of power. In Taraba State, all 24 members of the State House of Assembly, including the Speaker, have defected to the ruling party, along with the Secretary to the State Government and the PDP state chairman himself. Governor Agbu Kefas has “unofficially” aligned with the APC; his formal reception, scheduled for November 19, was postponed only because the Kebbi school kidnapping demanded national mourning. The wave of defections means the APC now controls 25 of 36 governorships, with projections suggesting the figure could exceed 30 by the 2027 elections.

The PDP’s death spiral continues, this time with teargas

The opposition People’s Democratic Party, by contrast, appears locked in terminal crisis. Its November 15-16 convention in Ibadan—held despite conflicting court orders—expelled ten members including FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and former Ekiti Governor Ayodele Fayose. Violence erupted at the party’s Wadata Plaza headquarters on November 18, when rival factions clashed and police deployed teargas. By week’s end, the Wike faction had filed suit seeking nullification of the entire convention. The internecine warfare has paralyzed the party’s capacity to mount coherent opposition, leaving Nigeria drifting toward what Senator Seriake Dickson has warned is “a one-party state.”

Meanwhile, constitutional reform

The National Assembly, seemingly oblivious to the tumult, pressed forward with constitutional amendments. At a November 24 retreat, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin and Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu declared the deliberation phase closed, targeting transmission of amendment bills to state assemblies before year-end. Proposals under consideration include devolution of powers, local government autonomy, state policing, and enhanced fiscal federalism—reforms that, if enacted, would represent the most significant constitutional changes since 1999.

Economy & Business

The Central Bank surprises markets: 27% holds despite seven months of disinflation

The headline economic news emerged on November 25, when the Central Bank of Nigeria concluded its 303rd Monetary Policy Committee meeting by retaining the benchmark interest rate at 27%—surprising markets that had anticipated the first cut in over a year. Governor Olayemi Cardoso justified the hold as prudent watchfulness, noting the need for “clearer assessment of near-term economic conditions” despite encouraging data.

That data is unambiguously positive. October inflation fell to 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September and marking the seventh consecutive month of disinflation. The figure represents the lowest headline rate since March 2022, a remarkable turnaround from the 34.6% peak recorded exactly one year ago. Food inflation dropped even more sharply, to 13.12% from 16.87%, benefiting from the harvest season and targeted market interventions. Core inflation touched 18.7%, its lowest since February 2023.

Yet the central bank’s caution reflects legitimate concerns. Holding rates at 27% imposes punishing borrowing costs on businesses and consumers, constraining credit growth and investment. The MPC appears to believe that inflation’s decline owes more to base effects and harvest seasonality than durable structural change, and that premature easing could reignite price pressures. Whether this judgment is correct will be tested in coming months.

Foreign reserves hit seven-year high as Eurobond breaks records

The naira, which has been the administration’s albatross since Tinubu’s controversial float in June 2023, traded in a relatively stable band around ₦1,450-1,456 to the dollar in official markets, with the parallel market spread narrowing to below 2%. Foreign reserves have climbed to $46.7 billion—a seven-year high—providing 10.3 months of import cover. The accretion reflects renewed investor confidence, improved oil receipts, and the successful issuance of a $2.35 billion Eurobond in early November that attracted $13 billion in orders, the largest orderbook in Nigerian sovereign debt history.

Dangote’s refinery ambitions double while telecoms profits surge

The real economy showed corresponding signs of life. Dangote Refinery announced a partnership with Honeywell International to expand capacity from the current 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd by 2028, which would make it the world’s largest petroleum refining complex. The refinery distributed 438 million litres of petrol in the first half of November and reduced its gantry price to ₦828 per litre, a 5.6% decrease that is gradually filtering through to consumers.

In telecommunications, MTN Nigeria reported a dramatic turnaround, posting ₦750.2 billion profit after tax for the first nine months of 2025—a 245.7% swing from a ₦514.9 billion loss in the same period last year. The sector’s resilience underscores the structural strength of Nigeria’s consumer economy even amid macroeconomic turbulence. The Nigerian Stock Exchange’s All-Share Index ended the week at 143,763 points, up 0.10% after the MPC decision, though banking stocks have suffered a 7% weekly decline amid year-end profit-taking.

Security & Defense

The Kebbi rescue: success without ransom, if the government is to be believed

The week’s security narrative contains both triumph and tragedy, though tragedy predominates. On November 25, President Tinubu announced that all 24 schoolgirls kidnapped from Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga, Kebbi State on November 17 had been rescued. Governor Nasir Idris confirmed that no ransom was paid by either state or federal government—a claim that would be more credible were it not for the long Nigerian tradition of paying ransoms while insisting ransoms were not paid.

Niger State’s 303: Nigeria’s largest school kidnapping yet

Whatever relief the rescue provided was tempered by a far larger crisis that had erupted four days earlier. On November 21, armed bandits attacked St. Mary’s Catholic Primary and Secondary School in Papiri, Niger State, abducting 303 students and 12 teachers in one of the largest school kidnappings in Nigerian history. The three-hour assault saw children aged 10-18 herded onto a truck under cover of darkness. By week’s end, 50 students had escaped and reunited with families, but 253 students and 12 teachers remained in captivity, their fate unknown. Pope Leo XIV appealed for their release during Sunday’s Angelus prayer; the Nigerian government closed 47 federal schools and Niger State shuttered all educational institutions until 2026.

Peace deals with bandit kingpins collapse across four states

The attacks underscore the collapse of peace deals that state governments had brokered with bandit kingpins in Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, and Sokoto. Notorious commanders including Dogo Gide and Yellow Janbros have reportedly lost control of subordinates who continue killing and kidnapping despite ceasefire commitments. The government’s response—ordering 24-hour aerial surveillance over forests in Kwara, Niger, and Kebbi states—represents familiar kinetic thinking, though the forests’ vast expanses have consistently frustrated military operations.

A brigadier general’s execution exposes intelligence and coordination failures

Also weighing heavily on military morale is the execution of Brigadier General Musa Uba by Islamic State West Africa Province following an ambush near Wajirko, Borno State on November 14. The brigade commander, one of the highest-ranking officers fighting insurgents in the Lake Chad region, sent desperate WhatsApp messages to colleagues after capture—“My battery is 31% now... once I see the aircraft, I can raise my peak cap”—before ISWAP switched off his phone and executed him. His death raises troubling questions about intelligence leaks and military coordination.

ISWAP suffers territorial losses—not to Nigeria but to rival jihadists

In a grim irony, ISWAP itself suffered significant losses during the week—not from Nigerian forces but from rival Boko Haram factions. Fighting over Lake Chad islands, which control lucrative smuggling corridors, saw JAS fighters kill over 50 ISWAP combatants and seize seven boats in what analysts describe as ISWAP’s biggest territorial loss since Abubakar Shekau’s death in 2021. The inter-jihadist warfare may weaken both groups, but history suggests it will also generate displaced fighters seeking softer targets.

Society & Culture

Universities spared shutdown as ASUU accepts another round of negotiations

The Academic Staff Union of Universities had threatened to shut down all public institutions from November 21, but the feared indefinite strike did not materialize. Emergency negotiations through the Yayale Ahmed Renegotiation Committee on November 24-25 appear to have secured a reprieve, with ASUU announcing its National Executive Council would convene on November 26 to review outcomes. The union had rejected the government’s 35% salary increase offer, demanding full implementation of a 2009 agreement that successive administrations have honored mainly in the breach. Education Minister Tunji Alausa insists the government has met ASUU’s requirements; the union disagrees. The brinkmanship will likely continue, as it has for decades.

National unity festival cancelled as national tragedy takes precedence

The planned National Festival of Arts and Culture (NAFEST) in Enugu, scheduled for November 22-29, was postponed indefinitely following the school kidnappings. Some 28 states had already arrived in Enugu when Culture Minister Hannatu Musa Musawa announced the cancellation, citing the need for national mourning. The festival would have featured the first Northern Durbar ever held in the Southeast, with over 50 horses transported from Katsina—a symbolically potent gesture of national unity now deferred to an uncertain future.

Dengue emerges in Sokoto as Lassa fever’s fatality rate exceeds last year’s

On the health front, Sokoto State confirmed 8 laboratory-verified cases of dengue fever in Sokoto North and Sokoto South local government areas, prompting health officials to alert facilities across the state. Meanwhile, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control’s Week 44 report documented a Lassa fever case fatality rate of 18.3%, higher than the 16.5% recorded in the same period last year, with 177 deaths from 966 confirmed cases across 21 states.

Nigeria eliminated 4-3 on penalties; squad overhaul promised for AFCON

Nigerian sports offered only additional disappointment. The Super Eagles’s 1-1 draw with DR Congo on November 16, followed by a 4-3 penalty shootout defeat, eliminated Nigeria from World Cup qualification for the second consecutive tournament. The Nigeria Football Federation apologized to President Tinubu and promised a “major squad overhaul” ahead of the Africa Cup of Nations, which begins December 21 in Morocco.

International Relations

Nigeria champions mineral equity and UN reform at back-to-back summits

President Tinubu’s cancellation of his G20 appearance in Johannesburg to address the Kebbi kidnapping crisis left Vice President Kashim Shettima to articulate Nigeria’s positions at the summit on November 22-23. Shettima’s interventions focused on critical minerals governance, demanding a “global framework that promotes value addition at source” and ensures host communities benefit from extraction—a pointed message to Western powers seeking African resources for energy transitions. Nigeria also backed global AI ethics standards and called for reform of international financial architecture to address developing-country debt burdens.

At the 7th AU-EU Summit in Luanda on November 24-25, Shettima intensified Nigeria’s push for permanent African seats with veto power on the UN Security Council, calling reform “long overdue.” In a notable policy declaration, he rejected the presence of private military companies on African soil, stating that “only African-led solutions free from private military firms will guarantee lasting peace”—an unmistakable rebuke of Wagner Group operations elsewhere on the continent. Shettima also revealed that over 250,000 Boko Haram-affiliated individuals have surrendered since Tinubu took office, though the figure is difficult to verify.

Trump’s “guns-a-blazing” threat recedes into diplomatic engagement

The shadow over Nigerian diplomacy remains Washington. President Trump’s November 1 threat to “go into that now disgraced country, guns-a-blazing” over alleged Christian persecution has created unprecedented tensions. The Nigerian government rejected the “Christian genocide” characterization as inconsistent with evidence that victims include Muslims and Christians alike. National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu led a delegation to Washington, meeting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other officials. The State Department subsequently signaled a “broader approach” encompassing diplomatic tools, sanctions, and intelligence-sharing—suggesting the military rhetoric was posturing rather than policy.

China commits $20 billion

China offers a counterweight. NCSP Director Joseph Tegbe announced $20 billion in Chinese investment commitments targeting agriculture, automotive manufacturing, steel, and energy. Bilateral trade surpassed $20 billion annually, with China now among Nigeria’s largest trading partners.

The Week Ahead

Tactical squads and local hunters search forests for 265 missing

The immediate priority remains the 253 students and 12 teachers still held captive following the Niger State school attack. Security forces have established cordons over forests in Kwara, Niger, and Kebbi states, with tactical squads and local hunters deployed. The coming days will reveal whether kinetic operations can succeed where they have so often failed.

Constitutional votes expected before year-end; tax reform remains stalled

The National Assembly will brief state governors on constitutional amendment proposals on November 26, with legislative voting expected before year-end. Tax reform bills, controversial among state governors who fear losing revenue allocation, remain in procedural limbo despite Senate passage.

Detty December arrives with billions—and the shadow of captive children

December brings “Detty December”—the annual influx of diaspora Nigerians and festival season that pumps billions into the economy. Whether the month’s celebrations will be shadowed by ongoing security crises depends largely on developments in the next few days. Nigeria has grown accustomed to holding joy and grief simultaneously; the week ahead will test whether that capacity has limits.

The Federal Republic is a weekly newsletter analyzing Nigerian politics, economics, security, and society. Subscribe for comprehensive briefings every Wednesday.

The past seven days have crystallised Nigeria’s paradoxes with unusual clarity. As the country’s foreign reserves surged to $46.7 billion—the highest since 2018—and inflation tumbled to 16.05%, its main opposition party imploded in spectacular fashion, armed bandits abducted 25 schoolgirls from their dormitory, and Islamic State-aligned militants executed a brigadier general. For Africa’s most populous nation, the week of November 11-18, 2025 offered both vindication of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms and a stark reminder that prosperity means little when citizens cannot sleep safely in their beds. The juxtaposition was, as ever in Nigeria, both remarkable and depressingly familiar.

Politics & Governance

Opposition eats itself as ruling party gorges on defectors

The Peoples Democratic Party, which governed Nigeria for 16 years until 2015 and has served as the country’s primary opposition force since, effectively ceased to exist as a unified entity this week. What remains are two hostile factions, each claiming legitimacy, each expelling the other’s leaders, and both fighting—quite literally—for control of the party headquarters in Abuja.

The drama reached its crescendo on November 15-16 at a chaotic national convention in Ibadan, where acting chairman Umar Damagum’s faction expelled 11 prominent members, including Nyesom Wike, the serving Federal Capital Territory minister who has become the party’s Schrödinger’s cat: simultaneously a PDP member and part of the APC-led government. The convention elected Kabiru Tanimu Turaki, a former Jigawa governor, as the new national chairman. Wike’s faction, unsurprisingly, declined to recognise this development and held rival meetings at the party secretariat.

By November 18, tensions erupted into violence when rival groups clashed at the PDP headquarters. Police fired teargas, journalists were injured, and the spectacle of Nigeria’s oldest political party tearing itself apart played out on national television. In a move that combined desperation with poor judgment, Turaki appealed to Donald Trump and the international community to “save democracy in Nigeria”—a statement the ruling All Progressives Congress gleefully described as “reckless and unpatriotic.”

The PDP’s crisis is less about ideology than arithmetic. With the 2027 elections approaching, the mathematics of political survival have turned brutal. This week saw the most dramatic evidence: Taraba State witnessed a complete political realignment, with all 16 state assembly members, all 16 local government chairmen, the state PDP chairman, and the entire executive council defecting to the APC. Governor Agbu Kefas was scheduled to formally join them on November 19 (later postponed due to the Kebbi kidnapping). When an entire state’s political structure switches allegiance, one is observing not defection but migration.

The National Assembly, meanwhile, busied itself with more prosaic matters. On November 13, both chambers approved President Tinubu’s request for N1.15 trillion in domestic borrowing and $2.35 billion in external loans, primarily to refinance Eurobonds maturing November 21. The Senate also advanced reforms to raise NEXIM Bank’s capital base from N50 billion to as much as N1 trillion—the managing director having noted that $33 million is “grossly inadequate” to support Nigeria’s export ambitions under the African Continental Free Trade Area. Quite so.

In a more encouraging sign, 44 lawmakers formally petitioned President Tinubu to release Nnamdi Kanu, the detained leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, and convene an “all-inclusive political roundtable.” The Southeast’s persistent low-level insurgency has proven immune to purely military solutions; perhaps political ones might fare better.

Economy & Business

Market panic, swift recovery, and a central bank vindicated

November 11 delivered the Nigerian stock market’s worst single-day performance in 15 years. The All-Share Index plummeted 5.01%, erasing N4.61 trillion in market capitalisation as panicked investors fled on fears of a proposed 25-30% capital gains tax increase. The exodus followed Trump’s threats against Nigeria, mixed third-quarter earnings, and general year-end portfolio rebalancing. By day’s end, equity capitalisation had collapsed from N94.53 trillion to N89.88 trillion.

Then Finance Minister Wale Edun spoke. On November 12, his reassurances regarding capital gains tax policy immediately restored confidence. The market recovered N2.5 trillion that day, another N1 trillion on November 13, and by November 14 had clawed back nearly all losses. The episode demonstrated both the market’s skittishness and the government’s growing competence at crisis management—a combination that would have seemed implausible 18 months ago.

The week’s economic data vindicated the Central Bank’s hawkish stance. October inflation hit 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September—the seventh consecutive monthly decline and the lowest rate since March 2022. Food inflation fell to 13.12% from 16.87%. The numbers reflect naira stability, improved FX liquidity, and seasonal harvest effects, but also suggest the CBN’s orthodox monetary policy is finally gaining traction. Markets now expect a 100-basis-point rate cut when the Monetary Policy Committee meets November 24-25.

Foreign reserves reaching $46.7 billion—providing 10.3 months of import cover—prompted S&P Global Ratings to revise Nigeria’s sovereign outlook from “stable” to “positive” on November 14. The confluence of declining inflation, rising reserves, and investor confidence returning suggests Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms, however painful, are producing results. Q2 GDP growth of 4.23% marked the strongest quarterly expansion in a decade outside the post-COVID rebound.

The telecoms sector continued its remarkable trajectory, with MTN Nigeria posting a N750.2 billion profit in the first nine months of 2025 (swinging from a N514.9 billion loss the previous year). Airtel’s profits surged 375% to $376 million. The two giants, controlling 86% of the market, announced infrastructure-sharing arrangements that should reduce costs while expanding rural connectivity. Data consumption hit 1.15 million terabytes in August—the highest monthly figure recorded—as Nigeria’s 173.5 million active mobile lines increasingly shift from voice to data services.

The Dangote Refinery announced plans to expand capacity from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day within three years, which would make it the world’s largest single-train refinery. Having already reduced petrol prices from N877 to N828 per litre, the facility now produces more than Nigeria’s daily requirements for both petrol and diesel. A $50 billion commitment from a global consortium to build Africa’s second-largest refinery (500,000 bpd) in the Niger Delta suggests Nigeria may finally solve its decades-long refining paradox: being Africa’s largest oil producer while importing most refined products.

The week’s shadow fell on banking, where the sector’s N49.152 trillion holdings in government securities rose 16.5% while loans to the private sector grew just 7.27%. When banks prefer sovereign debt to private lending, credit starvation threatens the very growth the macroeconomic stability is meant to enable.

Security & Defense

Another set of schoolgirls, another tragedy

At 4:00 AM on November 17, heavily armed bandits attacked the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga, Kebbi State. They killed the vice principal and a staff member before abducting 25 female students. One girl escaped that evening; 24 remained in captivity at week’s end. For Nigerians, the scene was grimly familiar—a replay of Chibok (2014), Dapchi (2018), Kankara (2020), and countless smaller abductions. Since 2014, at least 1,500 students have been kidnapped, most from the northwest where banditry has metastasised from cattle rustling into a lucrative kidnapping industry.

The Kebbi attack formed part of a week that saw 64 people kidnapped in Zamfara State (six killed), four killed and 12 abducted in Kaduna, and continued violence across the northwest. Security analysts note that bandits increasingly target schools for “strategic kidnapping”—attacks that guarantee national attention and higher ransoms than marketplace or roadside abductions. The strategy, depressingly, works.

In the northeast, the insurgency delivered its most significant tactical victory in years. On November 15, Islamic State West Africa Province fighters ambushed and captured Brigadier General M. Uba, commander of 25 Brigade, during operations along the Damboa-Biu axis in Borno State. ISWAP executed him and released propaganda photos on November 17. The killing of Nigeria’s highest-ranking officer since 2021 exposed vulnerabilities in operational communications and demonstrated ISWAP’s increasing sophistication—the group now deploys drones, night-vision equipment, and rocket-propelled grenades.

Borno Governor Babagana Zulum met with the Chief of Air Staff on November 18 to plan coordinated operations against key insurgent strongholds in the Tumbus Islands of Lake Chad, Mandara Hills, and Sambisa Game Reserve. Zulum noted that no comprehensive military operation has ever targeted the Tumbus Islands, which serve as ISWAP’s logistics hub and generate an estimated $191 million annually from taxing fishermen. The week also saw intra-jihadist fighting, with Boko Haram killing approximately 200 ISWAP fighters in battles for control of Lake Chad territories and smuggling routes.

Nigeria’s armed forces remain deployed across 35 of 36 states—a dispersion that stretches capabilities while suggesting the security apparatus serves less to defeat threats than to manage them. The National Human Rights Commission reported 2,266 people killed by bandits or insurgents in the first half of 2025 alone, exceeding all of 2024. When school kidnappings become routine and brigadier generals are executed on camera, one questions whether “security operations” constitute operations at all.

Society & Culture

Strikes threatened, footballers disappointed, filmmakers ascendant

The Academic Staff Union of Universities escalated rhetoric against the federal government this week, with multiple zonal coordinators rejecting a proposed 35% salary increase as “wretched” and “unscientific.” The union, which suspended a warning strike in October, threatened to resume action if negotiations stall. ASUU’s Lagos coordinator noted that while state revenues surged 62% between 2022 and 2024 (from N3.92 trillion to N5.81 trillion), education funding has sunk below 1% of GDP—far beneath Egypt’s 2% or South Africa’s 6%, let alone the 10% Maputo Declaration commitment.

The dispute reflects broader tensions over brain drain, with academics noting they remain “poorly compensated compared to their counterparts in other countries.” Universities cannot retain talent when neighbouring Ghana or distant Canada offers triple the salary. The threat of renewed strikes hangs over a sector already battered by years of industrial action.

Nigerian football delivered heartbreak on November 16, when the Super Eagles lost to DR Congo 4-3 on penalties in the CAF World Cup playoff final in Rabat. The defeat means Nigeria will miss a second consecutive World Cup—a significant blow for a nation that has historically been one of Africa’s strongest footballing powers. The team had defeated Gabon 4-1 in the semifinals, with Victor Osimhen scoring twice in extra time, before falling in the final’s penalty shootout. For a country where football serves as a rare source of national unity, the elimination stung particularly hard.

Nigerian cinema, by contrast, soared. The 14th Africa International Film Festival concluded its November 2-8 run in Lagos, marking a transformation from screening event to commercial marketplace. The newly launched AFRIFF Film & Content Market attracted MTN, major studios, and international buyers, facilitating licensing deals and co-productions. Films including “3 Cold Dishes” (executive produced by Burna Boy) and Omotola Jalade-Ekeinde’s directorial debut “Mother’s Love” showcased Nollywood’s maturation. The sector contributed N4.2 billion to GDP in 2024, with Nigerian films accounting for 56% of box office revenue in the first half—suggesting that while the Super Eagles stumbled, cultural exports continue their global ascent.

Afrobeats maintains its position as Nigeria’s most effective soft power tool, generating billions in economic value while reshaping global perceptions. The creative industries contributed approximately $1.4 billion to GDP in 2023, with artists like Burna Boy, Wizkid, and Rema dominating international charts. When Nigerian footballers disappoint, Nigerian musicians compensate.

Healthcare authorities confirmed a dengue fever outbreak in Sokoto State with eight laboratory-verified cases, while Lassa fever continues its endemic presence—290 confirmed cases and 53 deaths between January 6-26, with a case fatality rate of 18.3%. The persistent health challenges underscore how far Nigeria must travel to achieve healthcare security for its 237 million citizens.

International Relations

Trump’s threats recede as China’s embrace tightens

Donald Trump’s November 1 threats—designating Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for alleged Christian persecution and promising military intervention “guns-a-blazing”—cast a shadow over the week, though diplomatic channels produced what Nigerian officials described as “positive results.” Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar confirmed on November 17 that discussions had “moved on” from military threats. The crisis revealed Nigeria’s vulnerability to US pressure (USAID provided $876 million in 2024) while demonstrating the limits of such leverage when narratives clash with reality. Nigerian officials maintained that Muslims, not Christians, constitute the primary victims of violence—the Kebbi schoolgirls were all Muslim—and that characterising complex security challenges as religious persecution fundamentally misunderstands the situation.

If America’s stick looked less threatening this week, China’s carrots appeared more appetizing. Chinese Premier Li Qiang met Nigeria’s House Speaker on November 4, declaring that “China-Nigeria relations have entered the fast lane.” Bilateral trade reached $21.9 billion in 2024, with Chinese commitments spanning infrastructure, clean energy, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and zero-tariff treatment for Nigerian exports. When Trump threatened sanctions and China offered zero tariffs, Nigeria’s diplomatic calculus simplified considerably.

The United Kingdom maintained its role as dependable partner, with Foreign Minister Tuggar meeting British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper on November 11 to discuss trade, security, education, and climate cooperation. The UK announced Phase Two of its Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions fund, supporting Nigeria’s net-zero 2060 target. British pragmatism—£500 million in annual development assistance combined with expanding trade ties—offers a model that neither lectures nor threatens.

The week’s most significant diplomatic initiative came on November 18, when Nigeria, UNDP, and ECOWAS launched the Regional Partnership for Democracy. Tuggar described it as “President Tinubu’s contribution to the strengthening of democracy in Africa,” positioning Nigeria as champion of governance reform across a region that has witnessed military coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020. The RPD Secretariat, housed in Nigeria’s Foreign Ministry, will focus on electoral integrity, youth participation, and countering disinformation—addressing what ECOWAS officials warned amounts to an existential crisis. “If democracy falters in Nigeria,” one commissioner stated, “democracy will collapse everywhere else in the entire West African region.”

The African Union issued strong support for Nigeria during the Trump crisis, with AU Commission Chairman Mahmoud Ali Youssouf declaring at the United Nations on November 13: “There is no genocide in northern Nigeria.” The continental solidarity Nigeria received—combined with China’s diplomatic backing—suggests regional and emerging-power relationships increasingly matter as much as traditional Western partnerships.

Nigerian diaspora remittances surged 61% year-over-year, reaching $4.22 billion in the first ten months of 2024, on track to hit $26 billion for the full year. The flows exceed foreign direct investment and USAID combined, making the diaspora arguably Nigeria’s most valuable international asset. Initiatives to channel remittances into productive investment—rather than purely consumption—represent sensible attempts to leverage this resource more strategically.

The Week Ahead

November 24-25 brings the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where a 100-basis-point rate cut appears probable given October’s inflation decline to 16.05%. Markets will scrutinise whether the CBN deems conditions ripe for significant easing or maintains a cautious approach. The decision will signal whether Nigeria’s disinflation trajectory is sufficiently established to permit monetary accommodation.

President Tinubu departs November 18 for South Africa’s G20 Leaders’ Summit (November 22-23), followed by the 7th AU-EU Summit in Luanda (November 24-25). His presence at the G20, despite Nigeria not being a member state, reflects the country’s ambitions for greater voice in global economic governance. The AU-EU Summit’s focus on climate action, infrastructure, and digital transformation aligns with Nigeria’s strategic priorities, particularly regarding climate finance and technology transfer.

The National Festival of Arts and Culture convenes in Enugu State November 22-29, themed “Connected Culture.” While NAFEST typically generates limited international attention, it serves important domestic purposes in fostering cultural exchange and national cohesion—commodities in short supply.

The fate of the 24 Kebbi schoolgirls remains the week’s most pressing concern. Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Waidi Shaibu ordered “day and night” operations to secure their release. History suggests negotiations and ransom payments more likely than military rescue, but the government faces pressure to demonstrate capability beyond managing tragedies after they occur.

Opposition coalition talks continue, with the African Democratic Congress expressing willingness to work with PDP factions “if it will not be business as usual.” Whether Nigeria’s splintered opposition can coalesce into a credible alternative to the APC by 2027 remains doubtful, particularly as defections continue strengthening the ruling party’s already formidable position.

The coming days will reveal whether Nigeria’s economic stabilisation proves durable, whether its security apparatus can protect schoolchildren, and whether its diplomatic navigation between competing powers yields strategic advantage or merely postpones difficult choices. For a country perpetually described as having enormous potential, the gap between what could be and what is remains Nigeria’s defining characteristic—and this week offered both hope and despair in equal measure.

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